The Challenges Facing Petroleum Equalization Fund (PEF)’s Aquila Project

The Aquila Project is one of the best things that has happened in the Nigerian downstream oil industry in recent times. But few months after its commencement, the project is facing its difficult and test moment. Cases of theft and tampering with the Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags affixed on trucks, especially in the Lagos area, some petroleum marketers and haulers having little or no understanding of the workings of the project, acute shortage of the RFID tags are among the various difficulties facing the project.

The Aquila Project is an excellent electronic business solution designed to track the movement of regulated petroleum products throughout Nigeria -confirm loading and delivery of regulated petroleum products at all depots and retails outlets.  PEF believes the Aquila project, would bring efficiency in the management of volume of regulated petroleum products bridged across the country, it would also ease bridging claims payment to marketers and transporters; as well as eliminate the massive corruption that has hitherto characterized the payment of the bridging claims. Building a reliable data base for the downstream petroleum sector distribution is also one of the advantages of the project, according to PEF. Indeed, an excellent project. However, the emerging problems facing this innovative project, if not tackled, would rubbish it.

Before the introduction of the Aquila project, the PEF has been battling hard with so many challenges: rampant petroleum product diversion by haulers and marketers; absence of reliable data, fraudulent bridging claims (claims on waybills of undelivered products, popularly called bridging by air), cases of multiple registration numbers (plate number) for a single truck and insider abuses were also challenges in the management of the regulated petroleum products distribution system. However, with the introduction of the Acquila Project, all these problems were already being tackled, with reasonable success being achieved. For example, it has helped in the elimination of fraudulent claims and has put ‘vendors’ of petroleum products waybills out of business. But with the emergence of the aforementioned challenges, the project is under serious threat.

What then can be done by the Petroleum Equalization Fund Management (PEF) Board to safeguard and continuously improve on the project, taking into consideration the Nigerian mentality - the tendency of most people to try to circumvent laid down procedures.

Firstly, massive education and advocacy, including continuous publicity and advertising can be a strong tool in safeguarding the project.  For instance, some people were led to wrongly believe that the RFID tags affixed on trucks  contain mercury and SIM card for making free calls because some important targets  were left out in PEF’s  public relations and enlightenment  strategy - all people doing business in the depots regardless of their status should have been targeted in the enlightenment  programme. For example, drivers and motor boys who are always attached to the petroleum trucks can become bottleneck to the project.  If a driver, a motor boy, or a gate-man in the depots believe the RFID tags have mercury or SIM card for free calls, they would be tempted to steal it. 

All information technology business solutions have provisions for producing advanced versions;the Aquila Project cannot be an exception. Therefore, PEF’s IT support staff and service providers should search for more advanced ways to replace the physical RFID tags to either infrared or Blue-toothed entire truck. This would eliminate the cases of theft of the RFID tags, as well as render less-important, the RFID tags and truck’s registration number plate.

Another way of improving the solution is; the PEF management should be a more flexible with its representatives at the depots- it has been observed recently that PEF’s representatives at most loading depots in country are jittery to correct errors they make- either a  captured  wrong destination, quantity, marketers name or product type. Human errors are found in running any application, including I.T. business solution. If PEF continues to be unnecessarily strict with its personnel at the depots for cases of ‘innocent’ error corrections, it risks losing one of the most important aspects in achieving efficiency- full disclosure. Its depots representatives would hide errors made, which in the long run, would harm the entire project. PEF should allow its representatives at the loading depots to do corrections on errors made, but with full disclosure, this would immensely help it in the continuous improvement of the project.

PEF should also restructure its collaboration strategy with major stakeholders. For instance, the six major oil marketers and NNPC Retails control the bulk of trucks and retails outlets in the Nigerian downstream oil industry. A stronger partnership with these major stakeholders in the area of tagging of trucks would relieve PEF of the burden of management of the tags, especially of new trucks coming into the system.

Any electronic business solution has its challenges.  If all the challenges facing  the Aquila project are surmounted; the project can serve as  vehicle in providing the Nigerian government some vital information and data on  regulated  petroleum  products-  the exact litres loaded and exact litres received at each retail station in the country; the consumption pattern state by state or region by region, in addition to information on heavy truck movement on the Nigerian roads, including data on the actual national consumption of regulated petroleum products subsidized by tax payers money.

Nonetheless, PEF must be commended for this innovative solution to long-term national problems- irregularities in the management of the distribution and claims on bridged regulated petroleum products.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980. 

Re: Assessing Adamawa MPs in the National Assembly

This article is a reaction to an opinion with the above above title published in this newspaper of July 27, 2013. The author, Muhammed Zayyad lampooned Hon. Haske Hananiya over alleged non-performance. But the arguments are misplaced.


Nigeria’s 1999 constitution recognises the role of the third tier of government. It prescribes its functions to include having the duty to participate in economic planning and development of the areas as outlined in the fourth schedule of the document. That the local governments maintain a joint account with state governments has not quite stemmed the culture of financial malfeasance of the councils, hence the current hues and cries that have permeated the nation’s polity.
This happened to be one of the issues brainstormed upon between the constituents of Gombi/Hong federal constituency of Adamawa and their representative in the National Assembly at the people’s public session on the review of the constitution. This gave birth to the ongoing amendment of the Nigerian constitution which seems to have polarised legislators of the red and green chambers of the National Assembly (NASS). To us in the aforementioned council areas, issues such as the one in reference and other people-oriented matters as rotational presidency, devolution of powers etc, unanimously agreed upon by way of voting at the forum, were all presented by our representative without being selfish as witnessed among other representatives.
As part of a covenant with the people, the lawmaker, Haske Hananiya, in the last quarter of 2012 and early part of 2013, embarked on sinking motorised and hand pump boreholes across 22 electoral wards of the local governments, residents of whom, before now had been devastated by the outbreak of waterborne diseases such as malaria and typhoid. Topmost on the agenda of Haske Hananiya are empowerment of the poor and the aged, restoration of abandoned health care delivery scheme in both councils, and above all, empowering the youth through the introduction of scholarship awards to further their studies. Although the job of lawmaking is quite a different kettle of fish from direct empowerment of the people, the legislator resolved to ensure he bequeaths a legacy that posterity will kindly judge him with.
This informed last year’s distribution of farming implements and inputs worth millions of naira to constituents in the two local governments. One can never get bored of talking, writing and reading about Hon Hananiya. He is simply a thriller and a dazzler. Contrary to the opinion of one Muhammed Zayyad who wrote under the caption “Assessing Adamawa MPs in the National Assembly” which appeared in Weekly Trust of July 27, 2013, where he lampooned him for alleged non-performance, the lawmaker has been up and doing in championing the cause of his people.
Our representative has modestly donated some hospital equipment, beefed up structural facilities of the only cottage hospital in Hong, while clinics in Gombi and environs will take their turn before the end of this year. The constituents’ poor economic base has been a matter of great concern to the lawmaker, hence his recent visit to the areas in an attempt to give them succour and commence the process of removing his people out of the misery of health challenges, joblessness and bad road network and also boost youth educational standard.
In partnership with a non-governmental organization (PRO-HEALTH), a free health programme covering general health screening and preventive counseling, maternal health and family planning, HIV/AIDS screening and counseling and voluntary behavioural counseling were also brought to the doorstep of the two council areas. Diabetes screening and preventive counseling, ophthalmic procedure; for example, free eye surgeries, free glasses, dental screening and surgeries and laboratory services, were equally rendered at no cost to over 5, 000 patients in the areas.
Suleiman Alhamdu Gombi LGA Adamawa State

Performance Appraisal for Adamawa MPs in the National Assembly

These days, the major issues pre-occupying the minds of political pundits in Adamawa State is the lingering People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) internal crisis and the impact of the state of emergency rule declared on the state by President Goodluck Jonathan. Preoccupied by this,political observers are paying less attention to the activities of elected public office holders in the state, especially Members of Parliament at both the red and the green chambers; who are apparently having a field day.

Time is right for a performance appraisal for the parliamentarians. However, the big question is, by what parameters will they be appraised? Based on the ‘Nigerian’ way of politics and the MPs campaign promises; the following parameters can be used: first, the type of issues raised and quality of debate, the number of projects they influenced to their constituency; their public-friendliness and current ratings by the people in their constituency.

Senator Bello Tukur is representing Adamawa Central, he is one of the astute politicians among the Adamawa MPs, but he appears to be a seat warmer in the red chambers. Tukur’s accessibility and interaction with his constituency is very poor. Observers say he is more concern with the politics of 2015 than his constituency.  There are rumours that he is eyeing the governorship position in Adamawa. Tukur is a ‘smart’ politician; he has already pitched his tent with the Bamanga Tukur camp. The Nyako camp described him as a gold digger, stating they are not intimidated. The Senator was once deputy to former Governor Boni Haruna when Atiku group was in control, then he jumped to Jibril Aminu’s camp, later to Nyako’s and now to Bamanga’s. The way things are, if Tukur decides to re-contest for a second term, he may have a smooth ride.

Senator Ahmed Barata is representing Adamawa South. He is the most experienced among the three senators in terms of legislative knowledge. He was a two term member in the House of Representatives. He is sharp when it comes to politicking and winning elections- most of the public positions he held were elective offices. Despite his public office experience, it was surprising to many observers that his performance in the Senate is still below average.

Senator Bindawa Jibrilla represents Adamawa North; he is the youngest among the three senators representing the state, but the least experienced among them.  He came to the Senate riding on the strong support from the youths and his father’s esteem. Bindawa’s performance is below average in terms of quality of issues raised and project he influenced to his constituency. He recently donated motorcycles, grinding machines, and other such items to his constituency. Pundits maintain that such schemes are outdated in the 21^st century. Being very young, Bindawa’s political future is bright, if he can redefine his engagement with his constituency. 

42-year-old Aisha Ahmed Dahiru is representing the complex and most cosmopolitan of all the eight federal constituencies in Adamawa state- Yola North, Yola South and Girei. No one has ever won re-election in the constituency. The people of her constituency are known for their insistence on first rate performance from their MPs. Aisha’s performance in terms of friendliness and interaction with her constituency is excellent, but her contribution to national and constituency issues on the floor of the green chambers is below average.  She enjoys an unprecedented strong support from women and youths in her constituency, but she is not acting ‘smart’ - she is still a loyalist of the Gov. Nyako camps, despite that it is now obvious the camp has lost the control of her party, the PDP. Her supporters are pushing her to contest for the Senate, but when it comes to Adamawa central senatorial district’s politics, she is a ‘toddler’. Contesting for the senate would be a serious political miscalculation from her.

Hon. Abubakar Mahmud Wambai, Madawakin Mubi, who started his career as a Grade III teacher, is representing Mubi North/Mubi South/Maiha constituency, he was a member in the 6^th National Assembly on the platform of the PDP when he rode on the support of Gov. Nyako.  He won a seat in the 7^th National Assembly on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), riding on the popularity of Gen. Muhammad Buhari. Despite Wambai’s good performance on the ballot papers, his performance in the House is poor. There is already a wide disconnection between him and his constituency. He might find it hard winning a re-election.

Hon. Aminu Hamman Ribadu, representing Fufore/Song constituency, is not new in politics, he was the chairman of Fufore Local Government and also Senior Special Adviser to former Gov. Boni Haruna. His critics say his performance is very poor in all the parameters we are using to appraise the MPs. His critics also say, the number of words the 62 year old lawmaker uttered in the green chambers, since 2011, can be counted.

Demsa, Numan & Lamurde constituency is represented by a former Permanent Secretary in Adamawa State Government, Hon. Anthony Madwatte. Political pundits described him as a politician that has never gone through real political stress-test. This is because of the Numan-axis political style that operates in one direction- once you get the support of the bigwigs, victory is assured. Hon. Madwatte has been an MP since 2003. His critics described his performance as below average. But he is still very strong in his constituency.

Hon Titsi Kwaga Ganama is a first time member in the House of Representatives, he represents Madagali/Michika constituency.  He is not new to politics- was once a commissioner in Adamawa state. He won his election on the platform of the ACN, though observers say; he is a beneficiary of former Governor Boni’s strong grassroots base in the Madagali/Michika/Mubi axis. 56 years old Hon. Ganama appears to be a seat warmer in the House, despite his intimidating educational and work experience. His connection with his constituency has nose-dived.  If people like Boni Haruna give him support, he might return to the House.

Hon. Haske Francis Hananiya is representing Gombi/Hong constituency,  he is a member of the ACN. His election to the House can be best described as the handwork of his blood-brother, General Haldu Hananiya. One interesting thing about Hon. Haske’s political future is, his brother and god-father, Gen. Haldu is now a strong stakeholder in the Adamawa PDP. Haske’s performance in the House in terms of his quality of debate on national issues and accessibility to his local people is not impressive. His return to the House would highly depend on rigorous political calculations, not by him, but by the big-shots. One interesting thing is, all the PDP MPs came to National Assembly through the support of Governor Murtala Nyako at the time the Governor called-the-shots. Now Nyako has lost control of the party. Any of the MP’s that desire a second term ticket must abandon the Nyako camp and join Bamanga’s. However, the Bamanga  camp may take a different direction.

Gibson Kauda Nathaniel is among the old men in the green chambers. He would be 66 years by 2015.  He is well- experienced in public office; he was a one-time local council chair and a member in the Adamawa State House of Assembly. He said his target is to achieve infrastructural growth in his constituency. But, Hon. Kauda’s grade is in the same class with his colleagues- 3/10.

Ahmed Fons Nwangubi- a retired school principal turned-politician is representing Governor Nyako, Bamanga Tukur and Atiku Abubakar’s constituency– Mayo Belwa/Jada/Ganye/Toungo. Though, Fons is also an experienced politician; being a former local government chairman and member of State House of Assembly, the current internal crisis in his party the PDP would have an impact of his political future. Hon Ahmed has not performed to his constituency’s expectations.

In a nut-shell, none of the MPs from Adamawa in the National Assembly has a sterling performance in terms of contribution to national issues and on issues that would impact their constituencies. During the 5^th and 6^th Assembly, Adamawa people witnessed an above average performance from people like Senators Silas Zwingina, Iya Abubakar, Jibril Amin and Hon. Awwal Tukur. However, the present MPs still have ample time to beat that performance, especially in the areas of quality of debates on national issues, and those that affect their constituencies, including constant interaction with the people that voted them.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980. 

Between Kerosene and Cooking Gas

Nigeria has over 30 million households; 9 out of 10 of these households cook at least once everyday with dirty fuels- kerosene, firewood, animal dung etc. If these households can switch from ‘dirty’ fuels, especially kerosene to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (cooking gas) for cooking, the benefits to the nation’s health and environment would be enormous. Apart from that, LPG being a deregulated petroleum product, with huge potentials in the Nigerian market, would be a big money-spinner for LPG marketers and also help the government reduce the heavy burden of funding the subsidy on petroleum products.

Though always quick to point out the many benefits of deregulation, the downstream oil and gas players are yet to design an excellent marketing model to exploit the apparent market potentials of cooking gas, which is deregulated, in Nigeria. Hence the poor patronage of LPG as a source of domestic energy in the country.

Nevertheless, we must admit that the LPG market in Nigeria has array of challenges affecting its market growth. The greatest of it being the consumers’ general belief. Most Nigerians perceive cooking gas as a rich man’s and a dangerous fuel. Despite the fact that, such perception is deeply rooted in the minds of many Nigerians, cooking gas is still more economical for households use compared to kerosene. Kerosene is subsidized by the government at a retail price of N50 per litre, but most kerosene users in Nigeria buy the product at around N150 per litre. If an average family would use 30 litres of kerosene a month, the cost would be around N4,500. Some studies have indicated that the usage of one litre of kerosene equates to 0.39kg LPG. So, if same family would use 12kg of cooking gas in a month, it costs only N3,000.

Apart from the inadequate excellent marketing initiative by LPG marketers to win the hearts of consumers to switch to cooking gas, other problems facing the LPG market are: price is the major differentiator- the product is same. Over reliance on import, with volatile international prices and high freight cost which translated to high downstream retail price. Moreover LPG equipment and accessories needed for cooking gas usage are also imported with high tariffs. Although, the easy money downstream sector players get from subsidies on regulated products (PMS and DPK) is the major factor that has contributed to the lack of depth in the LPG market. In fact, the non-liberalization of the downstream oil and gas sector as a whole has hampered innovation in the sector. Thus, most downstream oil and gas companies do not have effective R& D department. 

What can be done by LPG marketers and indeed the government to increase Nigeria’s LPG per capita consumption and, at least achieve a remarkable market penetration? Nigeria‘s per capita consumption is abysmally 0.5kg, compared to West African regional average of 5kg per capita. Three solutions are needed: massive consumer education and advocacy by all stakeholders, government intervention and local capacity building.

A major intervention by the government is the major solution that would bring about a nationwide embrace of cooking gas. The Nigerian government and all the stakeholders in the oil and gas industry should as a matter of urgency initiate a flexible conversion program from kerosene to LPG. Nigerian can learn and copy from the Indonesian success story. According to one case study by World LP Gas Association, Indonesia was facing serious problem on subsidy on white products. Between 2001 and 2008 the cost of subsidies ranged from 9% to 18% of total state expenditures, the subsidy for kerosene was 57% of the state’s total petroleum product subsidy. In 2007 Indonesia undertook a massive energy program to convert its primary cooking fuel from kerosene to LP Gas in more than 50 million households within five years. Following a study and one-month market test, the conversion program was launched in 2007. The Indonesian government distributed free starter kits, which included a 3 kg cylinder, one burner stove, hose and regulator, and free first gas fill, to citizens meeting the program requirements. There were a few initial challenges including citizen demonstrations, illegal resale of kerosene from unconverted areas to converted areas, and the rise of LP Gas prices during the kerosene withdrawal period. However, a total of 8.2 million kiloliters of kerosene was withdrawn and replaced with 3.2 million metric tonne of LP Gas. This has translated to a gross subsidy savings of more than 6.9 billion US dollars for the government of Indonesia. If a similar program is introduced in Nigeria, certainly, the country would see a major switch from dirty fuel to LPG. To this regard, we must commend one of the six major players in the downstream petroleum industry; the company is currently operating a scheme that provides Nigerian low income households with affordable and accessible clean cooking fuels through low weight Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cylinders with integrated cooking ring. The initiative is built on two parallel value propositions - sell the integrated stove/cylinder with product and also provide financing for the initial purchase of the stove via a microfinance fund. The scheme would make a massive impact if the government actively participates. 

With hardship encountered on long queues to buy kerosene at its subsidized rate when available or its exorbitant price at black-markets, a feasible and corruption- free scheme would easily convert most Nigerian households to the use of LPG for cooking. This writer was part of a team that conducted a research on LPG consumption in Lagos and the results were interesting. Part of the findings from the research show that a large percentage of Lagosians are willing to own a gas cylinder if the opportunity is there. This is an indication of willingness among most Nigerians.And it indicates the huge benefits for players in the gas sector as an average family in Nigeria would use at least 12.5kg of LPG a month. However, lack of basic starter kits and low awareness and education remain major stumbling blocks in converting Nigerians to LPG users. May be the Indonesian model is the solution.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

TUC: Can Kaigama Fill Esele’s Shoes?

Mr. Bobboi Bala Kaigama, the President of Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN) was recently elected President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), at its 8th triennial delegates’ conference in Abuja. Many observers are of the view that, Bobboi has a huge challenge ahead of him- filling the ‘big’ shoes left by Comrade Peter Esele.

There is no doubt Bobboi has the capacity to build on Esele’s achievements as well as continue on the programmes and initiatives started by Esele. He was, afterall a vital player in Esele’s success story. So, Bobboi has the advantage and also posseses the knowledge, exposure and the necessary network. His leadership of the Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN) was a sterling one. Bobboi’s victory over Babatunde Oguns of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) can best be described as an endorsement of Team-Esele’s tenure. It also shows delegates’ desire for continuation of the policies and programmes initiated by Esele. With people like Sunday Olusoji Salako, the President of Associations of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions (ASSBIFI), Mr. Augustin Etafo of PENGASSAN and Mr. Bede Opara of the Senior Staff of Electricity and Allied Corporation, Bobboi has a strong and well experienced team that can make a difference. Though this writer, being a member of PENGASSAN, would have loved to see one of our own emerge President, the best candidate won. 

The labour movement in Nigeria is in a time that most Nigerians have some degree of confidence in it. However, sustaining and building the confidence depends on the ability of its leadership to have a clear knowledge of where they want to take the unions. At this crucial time that general elections in the country are approaching, Bobboi and his team must be honest in everything they do, both within the TUC and in dealing with other stakeholders.They should also hold firm to the main purpose of unionism- promotion of welfare of the commoners. 

To be successful, the new TUC National Executive should remember their allegiance extends beyond the 2.5 million members and 24 affliates but also to the 150 million Nigerians who rely on them to champion and lead the fight against corruption which is responsible for the state of abject poverty most Nigerians live in. Nigerians expect Mr. Bobboi and his team to steer the TUC to a new paradigm. That is, apart from being the hotbed for activism for checking those in authority, the TUC should also be the vehicle for advising governments at all levels in the formulation and implementation of policies and programmes that help create a societal system where crime is fought with employment and development opportunities rather than guns and a service structure where civil servants’ penchant for bribery is fought with meaningful wages.The TUC should as a matter of urgency work closely with other relevant sister organizations, especially the press in instituting in Nigeria, the International Labour Organization (ILO) strategies of: formulation of policies and programmes to promote basic human rights, improve working and living conditions, and enhance employment opportunities; promotion of national labour standards and Training, education and research activities to help advance the quality of living in the country.

The TUC is well-known for its strict monitoring and checks of those in power at the centre. However, it seems asleep in checking the excesses of politicians at the other tiers of government. State Governors have become emperors in their states. Bobboi should take advantage of his strong team and the long interaction he had with Esele, to break that tradition and spread the voice of the TUC in checking every state of the federation through it branches, its National Executive Council, National Administrative Council and the press. All said and done, he must balance TUC’s relationship with government and members’ expectations, in addition to differentiating between politics and policy- avoid, unknowingly becoming a tool in the hands of politicians, either in government or in the oppositions. Above all, the new TUC leader must remember that he is now a custodian of Nigerian workers’ hope in making our nascent democracy more participatory and people-oriented.

At the launch of his campaign for the post of TUC President, Bobboi promised to consolidate on the achievements of Esele and take the trade congress higher. Now he has won. The over 2.5 million TUC members, 24 affiliates and the over 150 million Nigerians are watching. Mr. Bobboi, congratulations!

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

2015: Will Atiku Contest Again?

If former Vice President Atiku Abubakar decides to contest the 2015 Presidential elections, it would be his fourth shot- 1992, 2007, 2011 and 2015. Without doubt, Atiku’s decision to contest will draw diverse reactions from many quarters. For instance, his opponents will be quick to describe him as opportunistic and a desperate serial presidential contestant. His supporters will refute by describing the decision as sheer doggedness and a clear sign of Atiku’s passion to serve his fatherland. Whichever way one would see Atiku’s decision if he decides to contest the 2015 Presidential elections, one thing that cannot be denied about him is- he is the most prepared candidate for the post of the President. Atiku Abubakar has a well-drafted policy document loaded with fine policies, programs and projects, including what Thisday’s Olusegun Adeniyi christened ‘The Atiku Abubakar Formula’. Atiku promised, if elected, that his medium-term strategy would be to ensure that recurrent expenditure is financed fully with non-oil revenues, while all oil proceeds will be invested in infrastructure, security, education and health.

There is no doubt; Atiku is the most grounded candidate for the 2015 presidential elections. However, there are many odds against him, compared to the few in his favour, taking into consideration the present realities in the polity. If President Goodluck Jonathan decides to seek for the presidential ticket of their party- the PDP, Jonathan will have the upper hand- incumbents always have an edge in their party’s presidential primaries. Pundits are of the view that, Atiku has made several political mistakes regarding his relationship with the PDP, most especially his refusal to fully integrate himself into the PDP family after the 2007 elections. In spirit of the ‘PDM family’, Atiku could have given the late Yar’Adua’s government his support, as well as participated in some aspects of the government. Again, after losing the 2011 PDP presidential primaries, it took Atiku very longtime to congratulate Jonathan and he never showed his face even once in the PDP nationwide presidential campaign tour. Those earlier political errors of judgment are still hunting Atiku’s political influence especially in the government at the centre and in his state. Nevertheless, one important fact that must be told is, had Atiku given-in so cheaply to either late Yar’Adua or Jonathan, his ‘political charisma’ could have diminished seriously. So, for his ‘tenacious’ style, any political calculation especially by those aspiring to contest the presidential election, Atiku must be the first to be factored-in in the equations. Well, politics they say is all about winning one’s game. Atiku’s style may have paid him; but he has lost what the average Nigerian politician cherishes -government patronage. For example, most of Atiku’s political allies are not in governments, both at the centre and the states.

Atiku’s chance to clinch the presidency is very bright; however, it depends on three factors: Jonathan declines to contest; the PDP offers a plain playing field or there is a massive revolt within the PDP. Political pundits say it would take the eighth wonder of the world for any of these three to occur.

Atiku however has other options- he could contest on another platform. But it would be a painstaking and a difficult decision for Atiku to leave the PDP for the second time because he went through hell to get readmitted into the PDP after his first walk-out. But nothing is impossible in politics; there are reports in the media that Atiku’s option B is a settled issue, as he will contest on the newly registered All Peoples Alliance (APA). One thing for sure is Atiku would wholeheartedly fight for the PDP presidential ticket. Nonetheless, being a typical Nigerian politician with immense war chest that easily scare-off his opponents, vast political network and connection, Atiku can comfortably contest on other platform apart from the PDP.

Above all, the controversial issue of power shift to the north would still show its face. Atiku may however not go with the so called ‘northern consensus candidate’ on the grounds that, the northern consensus candidate ‘mark’ has affected Atiku’s well known national spread and political fortunes. Furthermore, there is no strong candidate from the north that can single-handedly challenge Atiku. Even if there is, it would be either Vice President Namadi Sambo or President of the Senate, David Mark. But one critical factor that would help Atiku to have an edge over any other candidate especially from the north is, he is already ahead of them in terms of political structure and thorough understanding of the politics of the north. Furthermore, among all the possible PDP presidential contenders, Atiku is the only one that can freely decide to contest or not, while the decision of others is entirely centered on President Jonathan’s decision on a second term. Let’s not forget that, there many presidential materials apart from the aforementioned. For instance, at present, one person from north that can comfortably defeat the likes of Atiku and easily gain national support is Gen. Yakubu Gowon, but Gowon would be 81 years old by 2015.

It is not just sheer luck that has kept Atiku very relevant in politics of the presidential elections for about three decades. But from the beginning, he didn’t only focus on the ‘End Game’, rather, on building strong political organisation and working with bright people. On the other hand, PDP Presidential primaries that would feature Atiku versus Goodluck won’t be an exciting one- Nigerian have seen such a battle. But Atiku versus someone else would be very exciting. But the probability of such a contest is zero. Therefore, Atiku’s greatest obstacle to his presidential ambition will still be on how to get a strong party platform to contest on. Therefore, Atiku would surely put a strong fight for the PDP presidential ticket, as well as have his eyes somewhere else. After all, Atiku is a son to the PDP and a cousin to the opposition.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

2015: How Jonathan Can Win the North Over

There are strong indications that President Goodluck Jonathon has kick-started the political maneuvers to pave his way to contest the 2015 presidential elections. Just like the 2011 presidential elections, Jonathan’s splitting headache would be northern Nigeria. But this time around with a major difference- the opposition parties would be more united. PDP’s presidential primaries may not be tough for Jonathan, but the general elections would be. And, Jonathan has a painstaking task to change the belief by the northern Nigeria Talakawas that his Presidency is not different from that of northern political class who has failed the Talakawas.

With the political activities to herald the 2015 elections gaining momentum, President Jonathan’s worry would be how to gain the support of the Talakawas of the north. Before and after his election in 2011, President Jonathan has not applied strategies that can win the hearts of the people of northern Nigeria. With 2015 presidential election fast approaching, can Jonathan still be able to win over the hearts of northernTalakawas before the elections? Does the President have enough time to show the people of the north that his presidency is different?

There is no doubt President Jonathan still have a running political battle with a certain clique from the northern Nigeria political class. However, his attention appears more skewed to the ‘politics’ of the battle that he has forgotten himself and ways to win over the northern Talakawas-the poor who make up the majority of the northern populace and are the most important weapon for the battle. Jonathan could have taken advantage of the fact that the leadership of the north and the Talakawas are no more on the same page and thus, win the hearts of the people of the north. ButJonathan has so much relied on Governors for his political survival, now he is paying the heavy price. Though it is good for a President to have good ‘political’ relationship with all Governors, in Nigerian politics, you don’t do such and go to sleep; believing the Governors would swim and sink with you.

For Jonathan to win the north over, he has to take careful and intelligent development decisions to solve the political problem he is facing in the region. Though he has taken some steps in that direction, they are not enough. For example; the almajiri modern school programme is good, but the children in the north that go to the traditional almajiri schools do so because they don’t have a choice. The agricultural transformation programme is also a welcome development, however, more efforts are needed to reach real farmers as well as make them feel involved in the programme. President Jonathan’s recent visit to troubled Borno and Yobe States was a good step, but it was belated- Jonathan’s failure to visit the area until the APC Governors did so, was a major political blunder. He should have done it earlier to show the people of the area he shares their moment of difficulties.

President Jonathan still has more time to change northern Talakawas’impression of his government. He has to design speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor. The government should establish a strong direct contact with the people in each state, instead of the heavy reliance on ‘State Government Houses’- a Presidential liaison person or point-man wouldn’t be a bad idea. Jonathan needs to free his government from the armpit of state Governors. The manner with which President Jonathan showed personal interests in the Almajiri School Project should be extended to Lake Chad, Sokoto basin and Benue valley oil exploration project, as well as the Mambilla plateau hydro-electricity project. He should also launch special agricultural and poverty alleviation programmes - these are projects that would endear him to the northern Talakawas. This is because for nearly forty years of northern Nigeria political elite’s gripped on political power in Nigeria, they have failed to proffer feasible policies in those areas which could have positively impacted the livelihood of the ordinary people in the north. Another way Jonathan can endear himself to both the northern political class and the Talakawas is making use of the historic political relationship and alliance between the North and the South-South. It appears surprising that the political alliance between the North and the South-South is at its lowest ebb at a time a Niger-Deltan is occupying the presidency. Jonathan should take advantage of the invaluable friendship that some individuals from the South-South have established across the Niger. People like Anthony Anenih, Peter Odili, Prince Tonye Princewill, Donald Duke,Prince Chibudom Nwuche, Oronto Douglas etc., have vast network of friends and political contacts in the north.

As the politics of 2015 gains impetus, just like during the 2011 elections, gaining support from northern Nigeria is President Jonathan’s major dilemma. However, it could be achieved effortlessly if the right strategies are employed. After all, the case against the president in the North is political and only requires introducing sound economic policies that impact positively on the Talakawas, if it is to be cracked.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Nigerian Leaders, Educational Level and Good Governance

 The educational level of Nigeria’s political leaders has increased considerably, but good governance in the country has reduced drastically. The present political leaders in Nigeria- councilors, local council chairmen, federal and state legislators, Governors and those at the center, are mostly individuals with high educational qualifications- first, second, third degrees, including professorship. Despite this, it has not translated into noticeable good governance in the country. Indeed, it is not out of point to say Nigeria only witnessed her period of good governance at a time that those in political power didn’t possess the array of academic qualifications the current political leaders hold.

Many studies have shown that a nation’s economic growth and quality of governance is enhanced by having leaders who are well-read, competent with the right leadership skills, exposure and behaviour. Furthermore, it is a general belief that a well-educated leadership is a competitive advantage for any nation and there is a correlation between good governance and leaders’ level of education. It seems this theory is not working in Nigeria. So what went wrong? Is it the quality of the academic qualifications? Is it the system? Has having more educated leaders resulted in the current sophistication of corruption in Nigeria? It is known that most of Nigeria’s current leaders attended the best schools in or outside the country. And the laws, codes of conduct and regulations in the Nigerian governmental system are modest enough to guide those in power. So, what could be responsible for poor governance style by our leaders? This writer is of the view that the ‘strange’ character of an average Nigerian politician (which is not learned in school) could be responsible.

The absence of an appreciable level of good governance in Nigeria despite the high educational level of its leaders is a strong indication that leadership’s array of certificates doesn’t matter, but the individual character and behaviours. For instance, a professor who teaches basic knowledge in school, when given a political position behaves like a motor park tout. With such situation, one can say leadership is not all about academics but character, because past leaders in Nigeria with lower educational level have proven to be more competent and were able to conceptualize sensible ideas which enhanced all-round national development. They also governed with broader focus on public interest than the current leaders who have higher educational qualifications. Some educationists have observed that political leaders, who possess high educational qualifications and misbehave, did not earn such qualifications scholarly. Hence, they display disgraceful character in positions of political leadership. Other people have also summed up the reason for the lack of good governance to the fact that most individuals in leadership positions in Nigeria are never prepared for the job. Furthermore, the political system is so corrupted that the easy way to secure an elective office is to have the right godfather; belong to the political party in power whether at the centre or in State and during electioneering campaign all that is needed of one is to climb to the podium, rain abuses on the opponents, shout the name of your political party and dance. Shikenan! Such system would never produce good leadership.

Notwithstanding the array of reasons for the absence of good governance in Nigeria, the highly educated Nigerian leadership is still not performing as expected of well-read leaders with global mindset, because everything in the polity is ascribed to politics. When politicking overtakes policies, leadership degenerates- and this is the disease affecting the average Nigerian political leader. The politics we referring is when a political office becomes an opportunity for self enrichment and it is associated with pride, arrogance and larger than life attitude. Another factor that leads to the bad governance in Nigeria is; the society sometimes encourages national leaders to transform into to regional, ethnic or religious champion after serving at the centre. In addition, some members of the Nigerian society expect ‘their people in power’ to have or to do certain things even if they are wrong; just because one ‘lagbaja’ did have or did it before.

Despite the established fact that highly educated leaders develop good policies for economic growth in their countries, they influence international public opinion towards their countries and easily attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to their countries, including separating their personal interest from the public good, it is puzzling that the more highly educated Nigerians ascend to political power the more the country experiences bad governance. The average Nigerian leader can be helped to mend his character – there is a popular saying that positive character traits can be both taught and learned. The society needs to disapprove the arrogance, pride, self enrichment and larger than life attitude associated with public office. The Nigerian society should celebrate leaders who put more energy into feasible economic objectives and provision of public good and infrastructure. And not celebrate leadership that concentrates on mundane politicking and narrow personal interests which tend to have adverse effects on the provision good governance.

There is no doubt, the educational level of whoever aspires for a public office in Nigeria matters, but individual good character and behaviours are essential for listening and servant leadership.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Remodeling the Management of Nigeria’s oil Pipelines

Nigeria has a good infrastructure for the transportation of refined petroleum products- a 5,120km pipelines network connecting 21 oil depots and 19 pump stations. Regrettably, the pipelines are not in maximum economic utilization. This is due to mainly three factors- incessant illegal tapping by oil thieves, sabotage and the method of managing the pipelines. However, if the latter is remodeled; illegal tapping and sabotage would be tackled effectively. It is noteworthy that the poor management of these pipelines is not due to incompetence on the part of personnel involved but the management system itself which lacks provisions for tackling the contemporary challenges facing the nation’s refined petroleum products pipelines.

Pipelines and Products Marketing Company (PPMC), the firm responsible for the running of Nigeria’s refined petroleum products pipelines appears to be having difficulties in managing its vast network of pipelines. The reason is traceable to the fact that; from its set up, the PPMC was not designed to tackle the current challenges. From the economic perspective, only pipeline companies that are designed to generate revenue from their pipelines can effectively run pipelines transportation business under such circumstances Nigeria’s pipelines are subjected to.



The daily business activities of the PPMC are highly skewed toward petroleum products business to the detriment of the pipeline transportation business. Thus, it does not generate revenue from its network of pipelines as it owns the products being transported and the pipelines. In countries where pipelines management is profit-oriented, pipeline companies do not usually own the products they transport. They are simply intermediaries that move the products for their customers. So running the pipelines business is their flagship which gives them comparative advantage in many areas- maintaining an effective security against sabotage, illegal tapping and quick detection of leaks and in-line equipment failure, and most importantly, continued innovation in the business. Though, these are difficult to achieve, pipelines companies that are profit driven have shown they are possible. The United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recent annualreport data showed that the top 10 U.S. Oil pipeline operators' net income in 2011 soared to over $6.1 billion.

Remodeling the management system of the Nigeria’s refined petroleum pipelines can be achieved in two ways- lease or concession the pipelines to private companies or create independent firms out of the PPMC solely for pipelines business. For example, Russia has what it calls "Pipeline Troops", who are trained to build and maintain pipelines.



Whichever of the two methods is adopted would for sure bring a paradigm shift in the management of Nigeria’s pipelines. Nonetheless, how feasible are these recommendations? PPMC has a good structure that segments its network of pipelines into ‘systems’- System 2B transports petroleum products from the Atlas Cove to five oil depots in the southwest- Mosimi, Ibadan, Ilorin, Satellite(Ejigbo) and Ore. System 2E&2EX connects Port Harcourt Refinery with depots in Calabar, Aba, Enugu, Markurdi and Yola. System 2C&2CX connects Warri Petro-Chemical Refinery with depots at Benin, Suleja and Minna, while System 2D &2DX connects Kaduna Refinery with depots in Kano, Gusau, Jos, Gombe and Maiduguri. All these systems are interconnected. With such a good segmentation, it becomes easy to set up four companies to run each of the system or lease them to private businesses to run them profitably. With such arrangement, the pipelines would be run efficiently and profitably. The multiplier effect would be economically beneficial- reduction in the cost of bridging petroleum products from one part of the country to another. For instance, at present, the cost of transporting a litre of petroleum product by truck from Lagos to Maiduguri is N16.98 per litre. Through pipelines it would reduce substantially. Other benefits Nigeria stands to gain from efficient running of the pipelines are: promotion of competition, value chain addition and construction of new lines (particularly multi-product pipelines); new oil depots would spring up, all of these naturally translate to creation of more jobs. The government would benefit significantly as the country would have proper protection for its pipelines network and the pressure exerted on roads by heavy trucks moving petroleum products for long distances would decrease as trucks would transport products for only few distances. Moreover, the Petroleum Equalization Fund (PEF), petroleum marketers and transporters would gain a lot.



Whichever of the two methods of managing the pipelines suggested above is adopted, it does not shield petroleum pipelines business from its major challenges in Nigeria- illegal tapping, sabotage, right of way incursions including slow detection of leaks and in-line equipment failure due to inaccessible sites. However, the good news is, there are advanced technologies that can successfully tackle these problems: SCADA- Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition, Fiber Optic Cable (FOC) and Go-devils /scrapers or Smart pigs (also known as intelligent pigs). SCADA or FOC provide advanced warning in real time which helps pipelines companies to take quick action to protect long-stretch of pipelines network, even if it is located in inaccessible areas where visual inspection might be difficult. The impressive aspect of the SCADA and FOC technologies is that they sense and locate interference before the pipelines damage takes place. While Smart pigs are used to detect anomalies in pipelines or other mechanical damages. As for right of ways incursion, experts argue that the best way to tackle it is via community involvement through sustainable CSR projects and programmes.



Globally, pipelines transportation is a money-spinning business. Pipelines business has such potentials in Nigeria. When the Petroleum Industry Bill 2012 is finally enacted into law, there are provisions in the Bill that would facilitate the remodeling of the management of Nigeria’s refined petroleum products pipelines either by leasing or concession of the country’s refined petroleum pipelines network to private companies or creation of independent firms out of the PPMC solely for pipelines business. This new approach would transform the pipelines business into an important vehicle for economic development. The cost of distribution of petroleum products in the country would significantly reduce; it would ensure the safety of this national asset, the environment, the right of ways and the people. More importantly, pipelines business would be profit driven with potentials for expansion, improvement in technologies and promotion of Nigerian content including tackling the greatest problem facing the pipelines: illegal tapping by oil thieves and sabotage.


Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980