Adamawa: After the Elections, What Next?

Gov. Nyako

Politics, some people say, is a dirty and tricky business. But it is a field full of excitements- some of it is comical; some of it is scary; while some of it is beyond one’s imagination. The governorship elections in Adamwa State has come and gone, but the intense political manoeuvres and heat that preceded the elections has and would continue to determine the direction of the state’s politics in many ways.

How the Election Was Won and Lost

The February 4th 2012, Adamawa Governorship Elections results proved bookmakers right- Admiral Murtala Nyako won. Nyako won the election because of many reasons- the absence of a united and formidable opposition; the polarisation of the state along geographic, ethnic and faith lines; the influence of his political appointees, support from some key political bigwigs in the state and sheer luck.

The opposition came to the election highly disunited, and made some costly political miscalculations. In terms of number of votes, the main opposition parties ACN and CPC have clearly defeated Nyako. They garnered 355,300 votes which is 54% of the total votes cast, while Nyako got the remaining 302,953, i.e. 46%. One thing clear is, most of the votes got by each candidate were due to some reasons. Nyako won in mainly Hausa/Fulani dominated communities. His political appointees and handlers were instrumental in his getting votes from  some minority communities who happen not to be in full support of Nyako. Some people voted for Nyako just because they are PDP supporters, but they don’t admire Nyako as a person, while some people voted for PDP just because they belong to same ethnic group or faith with Nyako, but they are strong PDP antagonists. Incumbency and support from the centre also helped Nyako.

The ACN did very well in the election. The PDP took away victory from the ACN with just a margin of 61,930 votes. The ACN committed serious mistakes, missteps and plain misses that caused it the election: its leaders were carried away by the signs of massive support the party enjoys from the minority dominated areas of Adamawa state, but they failed to extend the ‘hand of friendship’ to the Hausa/Fulani areas. The ACN became a victim of ‘You won't get what you don't ask for’, thus the PDP took advantage and defeated the ACN with wide margin in Fofure, Girei, Madagali, Maiha, Mayo Belwa, Yola-North and Yola-South local government areas. The Adamawa Unity Forum (AUF) - a sort of minority ethnic group socio-political organisation; became an albatross to the party- AUF’s actions and inactions coloured ACN’s struggle to wrest power from Nyako as a struggle against the Hausa/Fulani. The ACN leadership is to be blamed for forgetting one essential political strategy which is: look forward, reason backward-. Had the ACN massively campaigned in the Hausa/Fulani dominated areas, it could have been game-over for Nyako. The ACN also forgot that election day is a turnout game; they didn’t make last minute effort to get their supporters to the polls. ‘Get-Out-the-Voters’ was a major tactic the PDP used to scoop vote in ACN strongholds. Another of ACN’s misstep was its failure to gather and utilize the type of political war chest needed to face a party like the PDP. What actually saved the ACN from what could have been political humiliation was former Governor Boni Haruna’s influence and that of his supporters and that of a section Adamawa people who feel the Nyako government has suppressed it.

Gen. Buba Marwa, the CPC candidate, on the other hand, played ‘Kick the Can Games.’ On the outside he appeared to be the good guy, while on the inside he tried to capitalise on the polarisation of the state between Hausa/Fulani and the minorities lines. It was believed that, Marwa contested with the brainwave that the heat generated by the polarisation of the state along geographic, ethnic and faith lines would work in his favour. ACN also employed this tactic, it however failed for both paties because they forgot that politics require consensus, engagement and give and take.

What Next For the Opposition?

The big problem facing opposition parties in Nigeria is, they do not present themselves as alternatives to the government. People simply see them as another group of people similar to those in power, waiting to grab power by all means. The opposition in Adamawa state needs to present themselves as alternatives that are relevant to the people’s day-to-day lives. To win, they need to have the confidence of the people; regardless of geography, ethnicity or faith.

The CPC in Adamawa state may become weaker and toothless- Marwa and his co-travellers may eventually leave the party to their old nest- the PDP. In addition, the party was built around the personality of one man- General Muhammadu Buhari- no Buhari, no vote for the party, so to speak.

The ACN has a bright future. Since the 2007 elections in Adamawa state, the party has been getting stronger by the day. However, it has mainly been benefiting from former Gov. Boni Haruna’s leadership of the party. This is because during his administration, he spread resources, development and appointments equally throughout the state. His government was truly a representative one.

The Road to 2015/2017

It is pretty too early to predict what shapes the politicking for 2015/2017 election will take, but one thing certain is, the dangerously heated political scenario generated by the politics of the February 4th 2012 governorship elections in Adamawa state; Nyako’s incumbency advantage; the Atiku Abubakar factor and the numerous political organisations springing-up will shape the paths for the road. Nyako may wish to have his anointed candidate as his successor; as any Governor will. But many of the bigwigs is his camp are believed to be nursing ambition to be Governor. Pundits’ opinion is, Abubakar Madawaki, the commissioner of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs who happens to be Nyako’s classmate and childhood friend is actively working underground to position himself for Governor. Senator Bello Tukur, with formidable political war chest and stealth tactics would be a candidate to beat; the seasoned lawyer and investment banker - Adamu Modibbo would have political experience and strong network as his weapon. Bala Ngillari, being the Deputy Governor is naturally expected to seek to succeed his boss, but he is keeping his cards closed to his chest. Chief Felix Tangwami, Nyako’s campaign coordinator is also a strong contender- he showed his political strength, acumen and capability during the February 4th, 2012 Governorship election. Other likely contenders with potentials are Senator Bindawa Jibrilla; Awwal Tukur, Mr. Kobis Ari Thimnu, the Secretary to the Adamawa State Government and, perhaps, a dark-horse may emerge- because in politics, things can change within a gleam of time or because of a trivial event. However, the road to 2015/2017 would be bumpy and complicated. It would witness blind ambitions, suppressing betrayals, unexpected cross-carpeting, disillusionment and huge political casualties.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

Thinking of a Nigeria without oil

Easy oil wealth is the grease that runs corruption and low national productivity in Nigeria . Any rise in the price of crude oil in the international market or removal of fuel subsidy will bring more monies to all the three tiers of government in Nigeria , thus, more corruption and increased poor creativity in the revenue-generation at federal, states and local government levels? 

 

Easy oil money has confused and turned Nigerian leaders into wasteful spenders; it has turned men that society trust into men with low political and moral values, it has also helped in the distortion of Nigeria ’s federal system.  Could have Nigeria been better-off without easy oil money?  Or is it a “curse” that Nigeria and Nigerians have to live with, and life goes on? Pessimists are of the view that Nigeria has already missed the opportunities to utilized oil monies  for national development- they argue that, Nigeria’s leaders, without any remorse has been eating up the  ‘future’ of the next generations. However, optimists are of the view that, the country still has chances to amend the mistakes of the past and take a cue from other nations.

 

Here is the big question- which of the two is the biggest challenge for Nigeria ? – is it the country’s heavy dependence on crude oil as the major  source of revenue; or the massive corruption in the country  triggered by the availability of easy petro-dollars, including the shady management of the now  controversial fuel subsidy regime?

 

There is no doubt that corruption is the monster subjecting most Nigerians to life full of pains. However, Nigeria’s sole dependence on oil as its major source of revenue and the only business that makes billionaires overnight is of greater harm- because it has promoted lack of creativity in revenue generation at all the levels of government; it is killing human capital development efforts and promoting laziness in the Nigerian society, in addition to making Nigeria’s political leadership indifferent to the plight of Nigerians either intentional or unintentional. 

 

It is indeed true that corruption facilitated by easy oil money has polluted the minds of  many Nigerians to the extent that the quest to hold political position or be close to the corridors of power is mainly use as an avenue to get rich. However, Nigeria ’s sole dependence on oil has promoted poverty of new ideas on governance and makes Nigeria vulnerable to any slight change in other country’s economy. 

 

The assertions that oil money has promoted corruption and lack of creativity in developing other avenues for revenue generation is not new, it is indeed yesterday’s news. But the current challenge is, when will  Government at all levels start to see oil money as a mere temporary ‘stipend’ that would one day disappears. For instance, the much hullabaloo by the Federal government and the Governor’s forum on the removal of fuel subsidy as the only avenue for government to get more revenue is clearly an end result of the continuing lack of feasible initiatives and creativity by government at all levels to create new ways of getting revenue apart from that of oil’s. 

 

Time has indeed come for Nigeria to invent new ways to get more revenue from other sources. The new ways has to be original and one which will well suit the peculiarity of the Nigerian state and its people. Though, it may contain some little elements of successful initiatives of other nations. One of the greatest mistakes policy makers in Nigeria do is- they often forget that any policy or programme that will drain the pockets of the populace; will face strong public resentment nonetheless the amount of revenue it would generate for government. That is why the removal of the fuel subsidy triggered nationwide public protests.  So, Nigeria ’s revenues generation drives (either subsidy removal or any other) must be synchronize with believable models that will create an enabling environment and uplift citizens’ living standard as well as provide ways to assist them turn their dreams into reality.

 

Nigeria’s leaders, policy formulators and implementers should develop a new revenue generation model, whereby the country  should  systemically and systematically reduce cost of governance, reinvigorate  her agricultural sector, promote small scale industrialisation;  develop human capital and efficient taxation, duties/tariffs, licenses and fees collection system.That is, putting in place a process through which the country’s economy can be transformed, and placing the country in a position that her citizens can take advantage of the vast opportunities today’s world economy offers.

 

It is good that President Goodluck Jonathan has started the process of cutting government’s recurrent expenditure. It must be transparent and seen to be implemented by all officials of governments from federal, states and local government levels.

 

Nigeria should redefine the implementation strategies of her agricultural programmes and policies. The development of the agriculture sector is imperative for Nigeria to remain economically viable. The new agricultural approach should not deviate from government’s current agricultural goals of alleviating poverty and hunger, promoting sustainable agricultural development, improved nutrition and food security, but the programme should also imbibe an all inclusive participatory techniques- where youth, communities, local councils, states, the federal government and the private sector (financial institute and private inventors) will be active and major participants. Financial institution and private investors shall be the financiers; governments at all levels will have well-defined roles, while the youths and communities shall be the targets. In addition, the programme should be designed to be in four categories- ‘export oriented’, ‘large’, ‘medium’ and ‘small’ scales.

 

Small scale industrialisation is another way government can generate revenues as well as increase the purchasing power of the poor. Though Industrialisation entailed both technology and profound social development, Nigeria can develop a small scale industrialisation programme which will steer resources into the productive process. Nigeria can tie her small scale industrialisation to agricultural output in the country. Nigeria has a total area of 910,768 km² of arable land, 13,000 km² water; and twenty-one (21) agricultural institutions, in addition to generation millions of tons of recyclable wastes every day. This will help in sustaining and developing the agricultural sector, boost export of finished or semi-finished goods as well as reduce unnecessary importation of items like razor blades, pine needles, envelopes, keys and padlocks, cotton buds, toys, shoelaces, safety matches umbrellas, doormats, office square clips, treasury tags, table flags,  carpets etc . Most of these items are produced from agricultural outputs and recyclables wastes by small industries setup with small amount of capital and powered by solar panels or small wind turbines. Most of these industries are owned and run by a family of two or three in Shanghai , Taipei , Manila or Bombay . If properly modelled, small scale industrialisation can bring more revenue to government and lift thousands of people from the bottom ladder of poverty. For example, The Bank of Industry, the Central bank of Nigeria , NAPEP and the ministry of Trade and Investment should ensure that Nigerian small-scale industries and interested individuals have easy access to intervention funds and soft loans.

Human capital development has played a vital role that has led to significant socio-economic progress and improvement in the lives of large number of people in many countries, noteworthy is the rapid and long sustainable high growth performances of East Asian economies. Nigeria can utilise her human capital for economic development. Though, economists are of the view that, for human capital to spawn a perceptible impact on economic development, a nation needs to have a minimum of at least 70 per cent literate population. Though Nigeria ’s literacy level is low, but Nigerians are a very creative and dynamic people. Despite the absence of strong formal support, Nigerians have made sport, music, art, Information technology and the film industries promising. Nigerian government can take advantage of this and use these industries to create jobs and generate wealth, by hunting for top quality talented Nigerians, provide them with world–class training.  In addition to assisting private entrepreneurs to establish well-equipped record companies, modern film studios, sport development enterprises and remove every obstacle that hampers the flourishing of these industries.   

 

Nigeria’s government and Nigerians place more emphasis on oil as the major source of revenue and the only lifeline of the nation- this has led to poverty of ideas in revenues generation, laziness, corruption and widening inequality in the society. Easy oil money has taken over the once creative, industrious, upright, competitive and gallant Nigerian society.  Let’s start thinking of a Nigeria without oil.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Adamawa 2012: The Test Of Political Wits

The scramble for all what the political space in Adamawa State can provide has begun. Six political gladiators- Governor Murtala Nyako, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Senator Jibril Aminu, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, General Buba Marwa and former Governor Boni Haruna are at the centre-stage. Nyako and Marwa being contestants in the January 14, 2012 Governorship elections will be in the battle solely for themselves, while the remaining four will be there by proxy - political sons, daughters and associates. It will be high-wired politics full of intrigues and horse-trading. Indeed, the battle will be a reverse of the 2007 political game- the bigwigs behind Nyako’s installation as Governor then, are his adversaries now. Politics, they say, is all about interest.

Since the inception of the former Gongola State, the tradition had been that the political bigwigs in the state often times swayed direction of the state’s politics. However, things have now changed; the politics of the state is sometimes determined by geography, faith and public impression of a candidate.

Looking at the results of the last National and State Assemblies election in the state, a logical analysis can be derived. The results showed that the opposition parties collectively had an edge over the ruling party- the PDP. Out of the 707,294 votes cast, the PDP scored 249,351, ACN scored 185,535, CPC scored 81,269. The Labour Party scored 123,131, while the other smaller parties garnered 68,008 votes. The PDP had 35% of the votes while the opposition parties collectively got a whopping 65% of the votes. The point here is, if the opposition parties can form among themselves, a workable alliance- it would be game over for Governor Nyako. However, the likelihood of the opposition parties coming together to challenge the PDP seems unfeasible. The reasons are obvious, especially to political pundits.

One of such reasons is because the opposition parties have lost the only man who could have given them the much needed political and financial strength. Challenging an incumbent is a herculean task; it requires having a leader with a huge political war chest. The man with such capacity is former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. The opposition in Adamawa State dearly need a ‘snapper gun’, and Atiku is the only ‘shooter’ available. But a reliable hint coming from Atiku camp is, he has directed his supporters to work for Governor Murtala Nyako. With this situation, Gov. Nyako has scored a crucial political point, while for his opponents it is a colossal loss. This means that, the more than 17% votes the Labour Party garnered during the last National and State Assemblies elections in the state will automatically go to Gov. Nyako. Pundits are of the view that, the seasoned lawyer, investment banker, chartered stockbroker and politician- Adamu Modibbo, who is Labour Party’s governorship candidate, will certainly toe Atiku’s line. Reason being that, he is Atiku’s son in-law; and a confidant.The duo political association gets stronger day after day.

Another reason the opposition parties cannot come together, is, that the political gladiators in the state have different political interests, as well as irreconcilable personal grudges. For instance, on the day Professor Jibrin Aminu called a meeting under the movement- ‘Adamawa Forum’ to strategize on how to scuttle Gov. Nyako’s second term comeback bid, on the same day the ACN reaffirmed its support for its Governorship candidate- Marcus Gundiri and his deputy Abdulrazak Namdas. Another issue worth noting is Gen. Buba Marwa’s stand. In his recent interview with journalists, the General reconfirmed his candidacy on the platform of the CPC. Marwa is believed to be the only aspirant among the array of Governorship hopefuls, with an intimidating credential- an army General; a PhD holder, a former Governor that performed excellently and a one time diplomat. But sadly, the Nigerian politics is beyond credentials, and his party the CPC was only able to get a little over 11 % votes cast during the last National and State Assemblies election in the state.

The ACN is the strongest of all the opposition parties in Adamawa if the result of the last National and State Assemblies is to be used as a benchmark. However, the party is facing three critical issues- fragmentation of its members along Hausa Fulani and the minority line; lack of strong coordination at the local levels, and the party’s sole dependence on former Governor Boni Haruna. Though party’s impressive performance in the last elections was due to Boni’s political wit and influence especially among former members of his government and the youth.

As it appears, Governor Nyako might have an easy ride at the PDP Governorship primaries slated for December 2011.This is because he will face little or no opposition. The only candidate challenging the Governor- Dr. Abdullahi Ardo, is seen by many as a political merchant. The real challenge Nyako would have will be at the general elections. One issue that might haunt Nyako, which his opponent would also capitalise on is that his administration has been shrouded with controversies since birth- the Governor has been accused of cronyisms, policy blunders and increasing disconnect between the government and the ordinary people.

Nyako’s opponents are quick to point out that some of his colleagues have established broadly-based governments and strengthened institutions of good governance, which have led to significant socio-economic progress and improvement in the lives of a large number of people in their states. They say, Gov. Nyako seem to still be living in the world which experienced the two world wars. In Adamawa today, the state is virtually grounded due to industrial strike almost across the public sector, worthnoting among this is that of the health workers. Most local government councils in the state today cannot pay salaries. Some are oweing their staff up to three or more months salaries. In a state where per capita income is very low, access to basic education and health is poor and there is a noticeable absence of basic infrastructure. Thus, Nyako’s adversaries see his handlers as penny wise pound foolish, for tagging the governor’s performance outstanding.

On the other hand, Nyako’s supporters believe that his administration has been busy putting in place programmes and projects aimed at bringing development and free the Adamawa people from the prison of poverty. But the opposition camp both inside and outside the PDP, are quick to point out that, what obtains in the polity is not what ought to be.

The fact is, despite the apparent odds against Nyako, he would have a upper hand against his opponents.The opposition parties are strongly disunited and lack resources. Besides, the governorship election may likely experience voter apathy because there won’t be elections into other offices that would have elicited local’s interest. This will hurt the fortunes of the opposition. However, the fact still remains that if the opposition can come into the election with a common front- it will be game-over for Nyako.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

Re: Where Are The Jobs?

In his Friday column in the Thisday newspaper of Friday 9th September 2011, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, drawn the attention of Nigerians to an issue that is very important for the success of President Goodluck Jonathan’s transformation agenda.

What strongly grabbed the attention of this writer was the proposal made by El-Rufai that “there is an urgent need to reform the various agencies involved in creating employment and alleviating poverty”. How can Nigeria tackle the high rate of unemployment in the country? - by creation of productive employment for its millions of unemployed citizens and those engaged in unproductive-manual jobs.

Nigeria needs to redesign her jobs and wealth creation programmes for better results. This will go a long way in increasing national output that will speed up and sustain economic growth, as well as, encourage the youth, private sector and the rural poor to be strong participants in the economy. Futhermore, there is need for the elimination of what experts call ‘disguised unemployment’- which prevails especially in the Nigerian agricultural sector.

The Federal Government on Tuesday 12th April, 2011 organised a presidential summit of job creation, which agenda includes, small and growing business, entrepreneurship, vocational education and job centres; graduate employment and business process outsourcing, public work and local content development and innovation. There is need for these to be implemented in such a way that they encourage the youth, rural dwellers and the poor to participate in and benefit from the process, while also complementing them with lower taxes, reduction of interest rates as well as incentives to businesses.

One of the most important strategies to tackle unemployment is an agricultural entrepreneurship programme for youth. It is good news that the Federal Government is already looking at that direction. The Government should go into partnership with private sector to establish poultry, fisheries, dairy, snellnaries farms, plantations etc in various locations in the country. The pilot phase should start with youth corpers. They should be trained-on-the-job on how to manage farms. After passing-out from the NYSC scheme, the farms should be transferred to them for management as entrepreneurs. The scheme should work in such a way that local councils and state governments should provide lands and other logistics, the private sector provides the fund while the federal government stands as the guarantor of fund. This will be done through the issuance of either callable, par value or coupon rate bonds. The private investors or financial institutions who will participate in the scheme are not to give money directly to the governments in order to receive the bond-certificate, but it would be a kind of batter arrangement; where the investors- either financial institution or private individuals would setup farms, in addition to putting in place all structures required in a standard farms. After which a bond certificate equivalent to the cost, which is to be determine by both parties and experts will be issued to them. The youths, to whom the farms are to be transferred, should gradually refund the monies back to the government; so as to make the scheme a revolving one, as well as to eliminate any form of mismanagement or corruption.

Ideas Development is also an excellent way to create employment for Nigerians i.e. the well known concept of: Innovate, create, invent and invest. Though experts say it is the most difficult but the most effective way to create long-term employment. Nigeria churns out thousands of graduates- engineers, computers programmers, architects, operations researchers, chemists, surveyors, designers etc yearly. The Nigerian government should establish additional innovation and invention centres across the country and in universities. The centres should work in such a way that, graduates with technical skills and entrepreneurship passion, will have access to facilities and environment that support thinking for invention and innovation. The Raw Material Research and Development Agency, National Technology Incubation Centre, Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria [SMEDAN], National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion, National Poverty Alleviation Programme, National Directorate of Employment (NDE) as well as Bank of Industries will play a vital role in such a scheme. Moreover, private investors can also be major participants, as they can play the role of fund providers for any invention or innovation that has market potentials. With this kind of scheme, it is possible to see new industries surface; the economy gradually grow and lots of good paying jobs created.

The setting-up of small scale industries is also a good way to create jobs. This can be done through systemic as well as systematic approach- i.e. steer resources into the productive process as well as tied it to the aforementioned two ways to create employment- agricultures and ideas development. Goods produced from the farms and the technologies developed from the R&D centres will serve as raw materials for the industries. The Nigerian markets are overflowing with imported products, such as razor blades, pine needles, envelopes, keys and padlocks, cotton buds, toys, shoelaces, safety matches, umbrellas, doormats, office square clips, treasury tags, table flags, carpets. Though, no country is free from imported products. However, most of these items are produced from agricultural produce and simple technologies developed by graduates and under-graduates and manufactured by small industries owned and run by a family of two or three in Shanghai, Taipei, Manila or Bombay. These small industries can be powered and run by solar panels or small wind turbines. Nigeria has the resources and human capital to develop such small industries.

The waste to wealth programme has been a much talked about issue in Nigeria. However, no concentrated government effort has been put in place for Nigeria to take advantage of the enormous wastes the country generates. The waste to wealth approach is another way to create productive employment for Nigeria. This can be tied to small scale industries development. All the three tiers of government should establish or support private efforts in wastes processing centres for plastics, scrap steel, paper, organic waste etc.

Another way to create more jobs and wealth for Nigerians is through the strengthening and supporting the already existing industries, which were developed outside any formal support. These include sport, music, art, fashion design and the movie industries. Nigerian government can use these industries to create jobs and generate wealth, by hunting for top quality talented Nigerians, provide them with world–class training through assisting private entrepreneurs to establish well-equipped recording studios, sport development enterprises and remove every obstacle that hampers the flourishing of these industries. The federal government recent 200 million dollar entertainment industry intervention funds, as well as CBN’s aggressive support to private businesses are good steps.

The electricity sector reform is ongoing. However, the government is not talking about a very important aspect of it- how common Nigerians can be major players in the industry. PHCN still sells electricity credit voucher directly to consumers. A system similar to the telecommunication industry should be established, so that ordinary Nigerians can start selling PHCN electricity vouchers to consumers. This will create more jobs as well as ease the purchase of the electricity credit vouchers.

No employment and wealth creation programmes or project can succeed without adequate funding; availability of efficient and reliable electricity, as well as good planning. Nigeria is not a super-rich nation and is also facing a daunting electricity crisis. Does that mean the country has to wait until it solves these problems before embarking on a workable job creation project? Certainly, no. Funding can be sourced through public-private partnership. Governments at all levels can also offer big establishments tax incentives- Tax relief for jobs – government should grant tax relief for businesses in return for the employment and support to individuals in the area of research and ideas development. Another way to source for funds includes an aggressive drive in getting lottery taxes paid- because lottery is now a huge business in Nigeria. For instance, most of the telecom operators are big lottery players- so the government can get substantial funds if every lottery player pays the right tax. The proposed investment of the unclaimed shares’ dividend is another way to generate funds for such a scheme. Lastly, another way to generate fund is via states’ partnership – where two or three states come together contribute funds monthly, bi-monthly or tri-monthly to fund any of the suggested ways to create employment. This should go round each of the contributing state within the chosen period.

Apart from the issues of funding and poor infrastructure; adhoc planning has been a major factor that contributes to failure of most efforts by government to tackle the high rate of unemployment in Nigeria.

As suggested by Mallam El-Rufai, the activities of job and wealth creation agencies of government should be streamlined in such a way that each agency will focus on a specific field or medium of job creation. For example, NAPEP should concentrate on supporting artisans to develop and improve their skills; SMEDEN should concentrate on job creation via small scales industries; National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion via ideas development, NDE on job creation through agriculture; while the NYSC should be revitalized to also function as graduates’ job creation agency.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

Let the Local Governments Start Working

The local government system in Nigeria is not working. The reason being that, some states government overwhelming control the third tier of government through the operation of the unpopular joint accounts, in addition to massive bribery, extortion, embezzlement, graft, nepotism and political patronage prevalent in the system.

The founders of the Nigerian local government system and the crafters of the Nigerian constitution envisaged a local government system that will bring development along the local people’s culture

and expectations. But sadly, the system is today a true reflection of the decay in the Nigeria state. It has been forgotten in Nigeria’s development equation- Nigerians put more expectation and emphasises on the President and the Governors, rather than the local authorities.

There is a school of thought that suggests that more constitutional reforms are needed to strengthen the local government system. However, the fourth schedule of the 1999 Nigerian constitution coupled with some important judgements made by the Supreme Court on issues affecting the local government system are good enough to strengthen the system.

The fourth schedule of the Nigerian constitution has clearly spelt out the functions of a local government council, but they have been abused and neglected. Imagine the local councils performing some of their functions as stated in the Nigerian constitution, for example: construction and maintenance of roads, streets, street lightings, drains and other public highways, parks, gardens, open spaces, or such public facilities; provision and maintenance of public conveniences, sewage and refuse disposal; establishment, maintenance and regulation of slaughter houses, slaughter slabs, markets and motor parks; assessment of privately owned houses or tenements for the purpose of levying such rates as may be prescribed by the House of Assembly of a state, collection of rates, radio and television licences, establishment and maintenance of cemeteries, burial grounds and homes for the destitute or infirm,naming of roads and streets and numbering of houses; registration of all births, deaths and marriages; control and regulation of out-door advertising and hoarding, movement and keeping of pets of all description, shops and kiosks, restaurants, bakeries and other places for sale of food to the public, laundries, and licensing, regulation and control of the sale of liquor. Regrettably, most state governments have systematically taken over some of these functions , especially as it relates to tax collection. For instance, the power to control and regulate out-door advertising and hoarding and other tax sources which are under the prerogative of local governments have been cleverly usurped by most states government, who make huge revenues from it.

As earlier mentioned, the operation of the joint account between states and local government councils, corruption and the poor attention the public and civil society organisations pay toward the situation in the local governments are major factors that are contributing to the inefficiency of the system. A saying goes thus: The less involved we are in our local community politics, the less aware we are of corruption in the system. Instead of serving as channels through which development and government's policies impact on the local people, as well as serve as a political training centre to afford future leaders opportunity to learn the art of good governance, the system has been transformed into breeding ground for bad leaders.

Time has come for the reinvigoration of the local government system through the elimination of the operation of the joint account. The elimination of the joint accounts will bring relief to the councils and enhance their capacity, as well as reduce the burden of public expectation on governors. It will also make local councils to be responsive to their constitutional duties. Due to the operation of joint account, most local councils in Nigeria are only able to pay salaries.And when they are able to, what is left is always too small to spend on development and it ends up in officials’ personal pockets. Though, the idea behind the joint account was to eliminate corruption in the local governments, it has eventually turned out to be the worst thing that has ever happened to the local government system.

Local council should prioritise their needs and the general public should pay more attention to the operations of the local government. People should also be more involved in who occupies executive and legislative positions in the local councils. More public attention should be geared toward, not only investigating where public funds are spent, but assessing whether projects or programmes executed benefit local people. That is, if projects are relevant to a community or are executed in order to enrich someone’s pocket?

Local councils should start implementing joint projects so as accelerate development and make funds easily available- two or three local councils should come together and contribute funds monthly, bi-monthly or tri-monthly to fund development projects. This should go round each of the contributing council within a chosen period. Another way by which local councils would boost their internally generated revenues (IGR) is through taxation. For instance, the advertising industry is today a viable source of revenue for government, and advertising taxes are under the purview of local governments. Commercial motorcycles and tricycles, which have become parts of the Nigerian system, are employing thousands of youth. Local councils collect taxes from the operators, thus it has become a good source of IGR, which need to be fully and judiciously utilized.

Monies meant for local governments should directly go to them. However, each council should be accountable for every kobo spent. The election of local officials is very skewed; once one belongs to the ruling party in the state; his or her election into any office in the local government is assured. The considerable electoral reform Nigeria witnessed recently, should also get to the local level. This will bring legitimacy and accountability to the councils, as well as enhance democratic decision-making at the local level and the social and economic wellbeing of local people.

The local councils are very important agents for economic development. This is because, 26% of national revenue goes to them, and being a well-defined entity, i.e. each has a ward with a councillor, the needs of communities within a ward are easily identified. Responsible people should vie for local councils positions; states government especially Governors and State Houses of Assembly should relax their tight grip on the councils; the public, NGO’s and activists should equally start paying attention to the local council’s activities. With these, the local government system will start working.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Adamawa Emirate under Lamido Barkindo

A year ago, Lamido Dr. Muhammad Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa stepped into the big shoes left by his late father- Lamido Dr. Aliyu Musdafa- a man who left a cherished legacy. For the nearly six decades he steered Adamawa Emirate, he brought new approaches to the way the Emirate was administered; promoted harmony among his heterogeneous subjects and brought more respect to the 200 year old Emirate.

Today, it is more than a year, after His Royal Highness, Dr. Muhammad Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa was turbaned as Lamido Adamawa. What is his rating among his subjects? What are his styles of leadership? Are there signs that he is following the footsteps and teachings of his late father? Though, historians and the Lamido himself accepted that, to emulate great men like late Lamido Aliyu Musdafa is a herculean task. But princes worth their salts, all the time, emulate and follow the good footsteps of their fathers- kings.

In May 1980, Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa was turbaned as Ciroma Adamawa (one who oversees natural resources and veterinary cases of the Emirate), by his late father. His ascension to that position at the age of 36, was a clear sign of the confidence posed in him by his late father; the Adamawa Emirate and the entire Adamawa people. It was also a sign of being purposefully positioned to lead the Emirate.

The citizens of Adamawa Emirate see Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa as a modern Emir that understands the difference between passion for excellence and that for power. He was once quoted to have said: “traditional titles are not for sale and would be given only to worthy candidates based on recommendations of the Emirate's king makers”. As providence will have it, Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa was chosen as the 12th Lamido of Adamawa, based on his natural character as a great leader; his visible achievements in life and contributions to the development of Adamawa state.

Lamido Barkindo was born in Yola in February 1944. He attended Barewa College, Zaria and later Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria where he obtained a Diploma in Law in 1969. He also attended North London Polytechnic (1973–1975) and St Clements University in the Turks and Caicos Islands (2000–2002). He worked with the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian Port Authority and the National Freight Company. He was appointed Commissioner for Works and later a Commissioner for Animal Health in the former Gongola State. The Lamido was a Director at the National Engineering and Technical Company (1991–1993), Chairman of Sterling Civil Engineering Nigeria Limited (1991–2003) and Chairman of the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria (2003–2005).

His Father, Late Lamido Dr Aliyu Mustafa, was a man for all- irrespective of ethnic, religious, educational or social background. He brought dynamism into the Emirate, which was founded in 1806, by Modibbo Adama bin Ardo Hassana, a disciple of Othman Danfodio.

Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa is doggedly following the footsteps of his father and showing signs that he has learnt a lot from his closeness to him. His regular interaction with his subjects and excellent community development initiatives are worth appreciating.

The recent appointment he made into the traditional council was a sign of his intelligent decision making ability. Just like his father will do, the individuals who got the traditional tittles cut across borders.The Lamido never compromises merit, as well as contribution to the society. Those he appointed were: Senator Bello Tukur- Sarki Yaki Adamawa, Mr. James Barka, the speaker Adamawa State House of Assembly, as Magatakarda Adamawa; Dr. Sanusi Barkindo, former GMD of the NNPC- Wali Adamawa; Mr. Kobis Ari Thimnu, the Secretary to the Adamawa State Government as Katuka Adamawa; Alhaji Muhammad Aminu Abdulkadir, IPMAN National President- was given the title of Sarki Hurumi Adamawa, while Alhaji Muhammad Ibrahim Attah, as Mai Borno Adamawa. One thing worth noting is, the Lamido also never hesitate in approving for District Heads to recognise individuals in their domains who are contributing to the development of their communities. For instance, the District Head of Jimeta, who is also the Dan Isa Adamawa, recently conferred traditional titles on some individuals: Alhaji Suleiman Inuwa Paris- Adamawa state Auditor General, as Dan Iya Jimeta; Alhaji Lawan Abubakar Musa, Managing Director of Adamawa Savings and Loans as Dan Galadima Jimeta, while a young, dynamic and enterprising insurance-underwriter, Mohammed Dahiru Garba Esq. was conferred with the title of Garkuwa Jimeta.

Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa is a tradition ruler with style of a modern day democratic administrator- he has a clear and vivid picture of what success looks like and where he intends to take the Adamawa Emirate to. He has a high regard for confident people but abhors pride; he admires hard-work and encourages his subjects to be productive. The Adamawa people are happy that Lamido Barkindo’s leadership styles, thinking and doggedness in promoting peace and non discrimination among his subjects and humanity as a whole are similar to that of his late father- Late Lamido Dr. Aliyu Mustafa.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

The North and Jonathan Presidency

Beginning from May 29, 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan has a new four year mandate as President of Nigeria. His declaration as President-elect by INEC propelled the historic April 17th, 2011, Talakwas revolt against today’s northern Nigerian elites, and violent protests that swept across some states of the region. The protests, which hoodlums and miscreants took advantage of, to kill innocent people and destroy properties, were senseless and regretful occurences that nearly spoilt the joy of the nation.

As a result of this situation, some questions are pertinent-were the protests against Jonathan in person? No they weren’t. Were they purely ethnic, religious or regional? No they weren’t. Were they because Buhari as a northerner was not declared President-elect? Equally they weren’t. Then, why the protests? They were protests triggered and aided by one monster: extreme-abject-poverty.

A great number of Nigerians live below poverty-line, but the poverty level in the north is disturbing-a level that has put the Talakawas in a desperate search for a messiah to free them from the prison of poverty.

Today, the Talakwas and the leadership of the north are no more on the same page. Thus, there is a strong conviction in the hearts of the Talakwas that any interest or individual being promoted by a certain group of the northern leadership, will only aggravate their anguish.

Whoever is the President of Nigeria, is a President for all. The political tradition in Nigeria is, the President, often relates with all sections of the country through their leaders. In case of the north, it is the political, traditional and the religious leaders. This is because, the northern Nigerian culture proposes that everyone accords unalloyed loyalty to these leaders.

The north has changed, the people’s thinking and aspirations have changed. Today, in the north, most of the leaders are no more on same pages with their followership. With this changed situation and the protests that trailed the declaration of Goodluck Jonathan as President-elect, there is a thorny, as well as a golden opportunity for Goodluck Jonathan. The thorny side is that, he has to give the north, a fresh development plan that is truly people-oriented, workable and credible. And trigger a political realignment that may be unpopular with some elites. In addition to this, he has to proffer an alternative education direction that would tackle the peculiar situation in the north. The present situation in the north is also a golden opportunity for President Goodluck Jonathan to show and tell the Talakawas in the region: hey! I have with me that ‘hope’ you see in Muhammadu Buhari. How would the Goodluck Jonathan’s Presidency achieve these? As earlier said, President Goodluck Jonathan should face the north by taking careful and intelligent political and policy steps.

The President has to design some speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor; introduce agricultural programs that will reach rural, small scale farmers and the youth, as well as, make them feel ownership of these programs.

There is a huge hole in the heart of northern Nigeria’s education system. Thus, the region’s education sector extremely needs restructuring and galvanizing similar to that of Soviet Union 1980’s glasnost and perestroika. So that there will be means of providing adequate funding; tackling the Almajiri phenomenon through workable integration of Quranic schools with formal schools and promotion of girl-child education.

The leadership in the north have woefully failed in freeing their Talakwas from poverty, illiteracy, and underdevelopment. If President Goodluck can demonstrate a little sign of providing practical solutions to these problems, the Talakawas of the north will definitely see in him the ‘Muhammadu Buhari’ they are searching for.

There is a strong urge in the north for a fresh socio-economic and political direction reminiscent of the old north- where; leadership is people oriented; ‘we’ and ‘they’ feelings never exist and life is simple and productive. How would President Goodluck Jonathan contribute to this, when a great number of the leadership in the region is no more revered by the people? Do we expect the President to sideline the political, traditional and religious leaders of the north? Certainly no. The President should employ both systematic and systemic approach- i.e. have in his mind that he has three groups to face in the north: the political elites; the Talakawas and a unique emerging group of educated young northerners who are advocating of a new approach.

The President should face the leadership of the region based on what they know best- the principle and foundation of negotiations and persuasion. It may be unpopular with the elites and may require strong political will. But President Goodluck should be bold enough to tell them- This time is for the Talakwas of the north- because ‘I told the world, I am one of them’ (the poor).

The general opinion in the north is, the region is in need of a paradigm shift in its development and political direction, in such a way that the region will welcome a Nigerian leader who listens to new ideas; accepts new ways of doing things; as well as has a clear and vivid picture of what success looks like and how to achieve it. Someone who can move with a speed commensurate with the expectations of Talakwas in bringing new thinking and synergy to the public sector through feasible ideas that will bring development in all spheres of north’s economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities; fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services , ranging from health and social programs, electricity, police protection, maintain a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the reinvigoration of the small scale industries, roads construction and human capital development.

The Talakwas of the north are just looking for a Nigerian that will lead Nigeria with honesty, firmness and free them from the prison of abject poverty; not someone who will hide behind regionalism to consolidate on cronyism and self enrichment. Jonathan can give the north such a leadership.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980. He blogs at www.zayyaddp.blogspot.com

Jonathan and the Presidential Summit on Job Creation

President Goodluck Jonathan; top government officials and leaders of the private sector, on Tuesday 12th April, 2011, attended a presidential summit of job creation, organised by The National Economic Management Team (NEMT). The summit brainstormed on areas like small and growing business and entrepreneurship, vocational education and job centres; graduate employment and businesses process outsourcing, public work and local content development and innovation. Pessimists see the summit as the usual ploy by Nigerian politicians to get votes during election time, while optimists see it as good step in the right direction.

Whichever way one sees it, the truth is, widespread unemployment is the grease that smoothens the spread of abject poverty and insecurity in Nigeria. Indeed, the hallmark of poverty and crimes in Nigeria is the high level of unemployment among her active-age citizens. If Nigeria can tackle the high rate of unemployment in the country by creation of productive employment for its millions of unemployed citizens and those engaged in unproductive-manual jobs, doors to prosperity in the land will open.

Even in developed countries, unemployment rates may be high and availability of jobs also tends to fluctuate, creating periods of high joblessness. However, most stable and promising countries have systems in placed to cushion and tackle such situations. Nigeria being a country with high population, an unemployment level of only a few percentage means that millions of working-age people will be unemployed and unable to earn adequate income for a decent living. This should be an issue of great concern to the political leaders and managers of Nigeria’s economy, because, one of the basic ingredient in the reduction of crimes and attainment of sustainable general social order in any society, is the availability of jobs for majority of the working population- especially the youth.

The National Economic Management Team (NEMT), the organisers of the summit, should have it on their minds that various Nigerian governments have organised many summits; established quite a number of employment creation programmes, projects and policies, including the setting-up of the National Directorate of Employment and various states’ agencies. However, the unemployment rate in Nigeria is growing astronomically. The big question is- what went wrong? Two issues of course: The old notion among policy formulators and managers of Nigeria’s economy that unemployment is wage unemployment and that it is an urban phenomenon. Second to this is, the near failure of most of the employment and poverty eradication programmes to encourage the youth, rural dwellers and the poor to participate in and benefit from the process.

Nigeria needs to redesign her jobs and wealth creation programmes for better results. This will go a long way in increasing national output that will speed up and sustain economic growth, as well as, encourage the youth, private sector and the rural poor to be strong participants in the economy. Futhermore, there is need for the elimination of what experts call ‘disguised unemployment’- which prevails especially in the Nigerian agricultural sector.

The summit’s agenda, which include, small and growing business, entrepreneurship, vocational education and job centres; graduate employment and business process outsourcing, public work and local content development and innovation are excellent. However, there is need for these to be implemented in such a way that they encourage the youth, rural dwellers and the poor to participate in and benefit from the process, while also complementing them with lower taxes, reduction of interest rates as well as incentives to businesses.

One of the most important strategies to tackle unemployment is an agricultural entrepreneurship programme for youth. It is good news that the Federal Government is already looking at that direction. The Government should go into partnership with private sector to establish poultry, fisheries, dairy, snellnaries farms, plantations etc in various locations in the country. The pilot phase should start with youth corpers. They should be trained-on-the-job on how to manage farms. After passing-out from the NYSC scheme, the farms should be transferred to them for management as entrepreneurs. The scheme should work in such a way that local councils and state governments should provide lands and other logistics, the private sector provides the fund while the federal government stands as the guarantor of fund. This will be done through the issuance of either callable, par value or coupon rate bonds. The private investors or financial institutions who will participate in the scheme are not to give money directly to the governments in order to receive the bond-certificate, but it would be a kind of batter arrangement; where the investors- either financial institution or private individuals would setup farms, in addition to putting in place all structures required in a standard farms. After which a bond certificate equivalent to the cost, which is to be determine by both parties and experts will be issued to them. The youths, to whom the farms are to be transferred, should gradually refund the monies back to the government; so as to make the scheme a revolving one, as well as to eliminate any form of mismanagement or corruption.

The summit also discussed Ideas Development as a way to create employment for Nigerians i.e. the well known concept of: Innovate, create, invent and invest. Though experts say it is the most difficult but the most effective way to create long-term employment. Nigeria churns out thousands of graduates- engineers, computers programmers, architects, operations researchers, chemists, designers etc yearly. The Nigerian government should establish additional innovation and invention centers across the country and in universities. The centers should work in such a way that, graduates with technical skills and entrepreneurship passion, will have access to facilities and environment that support thinking for invention and innovation. The Raw Material Research and Development Agency, National Technology Incubation Centre, Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria [SMEDAN], National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion as well as Bank of Industries will play a vital role in such a scheme. Moreover, private investors can also be major participants, as they can play the role of fund providers for any invention or innovation that has market potentials. With this kind of scheme, it is possible to see new industries surface; the economy gradually grow and lots of good paying jobs created.

The setting-up of small scale industries is also a good way to create jobs. This can be done through systemic as well as systematic approach- i.e. steer resources into the productive process as well as tied it to the aforementioned two ways to create employment- agricultures and ideas development. Goods produced from the farms and the technologies developed from the R&D centres will serve as raw materials for the industries. The Nigerian markets are overflowing with imported products, such as razor blades, pine needles, envelopes, keys and padlocks, cotton buds, toys, shoelaces, safety matches, umbrellas, doormats, office square clips, treasury tags, table flags, carpets. Though, no country is free from imported products. However, most of these items are produced from agricultural produce and simple technologies developed by graduates and under-graduates and manufactured by small industries owned and run by a family of two or three in Shanghai, Taipei, Manila or Bombay. These small industries can be powered and run by solar panels or small wind turbines. Nigeria has the resources and human capital to develop such small industries.

The waste to wealth programme has been a much talked about issue in Nigeria. However, no concentrated government effort has been put in place for Nigeria to take advantage of the enormous wastes the country generates. The waste to wealth approach is another way to create productive employment for Nigeria. This can be tied to small scale industries development. All the three tiers of government should establish or support private efforts in wastes processing centres for plastics, scrap steel, paper, organic waste etc.

Another way to create more jobs and wealth for Nigerians is through the strengthening and supporting the already existing industries, which were developed outside any formal support. These include sport, music, art, fashion design and the movie industries. Nigerian government can use these industries to create jobs and generate wealth, by hunting for top quality talented Nigerians, provide them with world–class training through assisting private entrepreneurs to establish well-equipped recording studios, sport development enterprises and remove every obstacle that hampers the flourishing of these industries. The federal government recent 200 million dollar entertainment industry intervention funds, as well as CBN’s aggressive support to private businesses are good steps.

The electricity sector reform is ongoing. However, the government is not talking about a very important aspect of it- how common Nigerians can be major players in the industry. PHCN still sells electricity credit voucher directly to consumers. A system similar to the telecommunication industry should be established, so that ordinary Nigerians can start selling PHCN electricity vouchers to consumers. This will create more jobs as well as ease the purchase of the electricity credit vouchers

No employment and wealth creation programmes or project can succeed without adequate funding; availability of efficient and reliable electricity, as well as good planning. Nigeria is not a super-rich nation and is also facing a daunting electricity crisis. Does that mean the country has to wait until it solves these problems before embarking on a workable job creation project? Certainly, no. Funding can be sourced through public-private partnership. Governments at all levels can also offer big establishments tax incentives- Tax relief for jobs – government should grant tax relief for businesses in return for the employment and support to individuals in the area of research and ideas development. Another way to source for funds includes an aggressive drive in getting lottery taxes paid- because lottery is now a huge business in Nigeria. For instance, most of the telecom operators are big lottery players- so the government can get substantial funds if every lottery player pays the right tax. The proposed investment of the unclaimed shares’ dividend is another way to generate funds for such a scheme. Lastly, another way to generate fund is via states’ partnership – where two or three states come together contribute funds monthly, bi-monthly or tri-monthly to fund any of the suggested ways to create employment. This should go round each of the contributing state within the chosen period.

Apart from the issues of funding and poor infrastructure; adhoc planning has been a major factor that contributes to failure of most efforts by government to tackle the high rate of unemployment in Nigeria. The activities of job and wealth creation agencies of government should be streamlined in such a way that each agency will focus on a specific field or medium of job creation. For example, NAPEP should concentrate on supporting artisans to develop and improve their skills; SMEDEN should concentrate on job creation via small scales industries; National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion via ideas development, NDE on job creation through agriculture; while the NYSC should be revitalized to also function as graduates’ job creation agency etc. This writer elaborated on how the NYSC can be galvanized to play such role in a piece published in the Thisday of March 10, 2009, Page 18 and the Daily Trust of Feb 26, 2009, Page 12.

The Presidential Summit on Job Creation recommendations should be a Nigerian project- it should be a true reflection of its theme- Putting Nigerians to Work For Nigeria. It implementation should be productive and beneficial to the Nigeria society for years to come. This will assure both pessimists and optimist that it is a clear leap forward for job creation- especially for the youth.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

 

Northern Nigeria New Challenge

The politics of who gets what shouldn’t be of much concern to northern Nigeria, but the growing sectarian violence of a frightening magnitude, fuelled by economic crisis and wide gap in social–order. It’s northern Nigeria’s 21st century new challenge. Despite the fact that this recurrent violent conflict has its roots in the social and economic turmoil arising out of the region’s age-long challenges of absolute poverty, illiteracy, ethnic and religious differences, two others factors have also helped to escalate the crisis to its present terrifying point. The two factors are: the continuing decline in the patriotic zeal of north’s political class to free the region from the prison of underdevelopment. And, the growing ‘We’ and ‘They’ feeling that is gradually defining life in the north.

In every instance, the region’s poor, the weak and rural dwellers are often the victims. Their self-help efforts to battle and surmount these challenges always met brick walls. Indeed, the common people’s efforts seem not enough and their hope of feasible solutions from the constituted authorities has always been dashed. It thus seems, the political class in the north has failed the masses.

Notwithstanding the locations, magnitude, as well as the victims of this growing violent conflict, everyone, including the political, religious, traditional and the business classes, in their comfort zones, must get ready to take up a political, legal and ideological war against this recurrent violence. In fact, the elites of the north must realize that outsiders’ perception of the north, which they claim leadership over, has changed. Reason being that, other Nigerians and the world see what is happening in the north as an extension of global terrorism. The world would now pay more attention to northern Nigeria and the region will increasingly be in the news, negatively, and as it appears, it might be there for a long time.

This is a big challenge to northern Nigeria political, traditional and religious class; because the world and the indeed the Nigerian state demand a lot from them. Good leaders are always expected to proffer quick and timely solutions to their society’s nagging problems. But is the leadership in the north ready to confront this new challenge head-on? Or are we in for the usual Nigerian political leader’s habit of ignoring problems with a wave of hand, thinking it will naturally die-out? Ignoring this crisis is costing the north a lot. It is time for a rethink. Northern leaders should turn things around because the situation we are is not where we ought to be.

The recent bomb explosions and flashes of gruesome attacks in some parts of the north have given an international dimension to a local ethno-religious-economic conflict hitherto being fought with words–of-mouth, machetes, swords, bows and arrows. Some observers are of strong opinion that international terror groups have infiltrated Nigeria’s shores. If this assumption is established to be true, then, the political class in the north and indeed Nigeria, should remind themselves that since the 9/11 attacks on the United States, the war on terror has taken a different dimension, it is now presented as military, political, legal and ideological war against regimes, regions and organizations that has ties with or shows any signs of being potential terrorists sleeper cell. Is northern Nigeria and Nigeria as a whole ready to face this big challenge? The answer is anybody’s guess.

Terrorism has become increasingly common among those pursuing extreme goals throughout the world. Thus, fighting it has become a herculean task; it requires intensive intelligent gathering, as well as cross-border cooperation. Terrorism being a conflict that often dazzles authorities; when it rears its head, the nature may not be fully realised. And criminal activity may be mistaken for terrorism, or the other way round. So, authorities, especially the political class in the north should tackle this new challenge via two ways: first is development that will align with the expectations of the people, while the second is enlightening and educating the populace through honest engagement.

The basic causes of poverty in northern Nigeria are the absence of an enabling environment that will free the people from the prison of poverty; unequal distribution of resources; lack of basic education and infrastructure, in addition to the absence of employment opportunities that would raise peoples’ living standard and provide ways to assist them turn their dreams into reality. The north can fairly get wealthy by simultaneously developing her agricultural sector, small scale industries and human capital. That is, putting in place a process through which the region’s economy is transformed over defined period, by the revitalization of the agricultural sector, propelling small scale industrialisation and placing the region in a position so that her citizens can take advantage of the vast opportunities the Nigerian and the world economies offer. More importantly, the development plan should be tied to creating employment opportunities for the youth through education, training and reliable micro-finance systems.

The aforementioned second way to confront this violence is enlightening the people. This should be skewed towards the use of the radio. Radio is an important medium of reaching majority of the people in the north. In fact, almost everybody in the region listens to the radio in the morning before going work, afternoon and in the night before going to sleep. State governments should collaborate with local radio stations, NGOs and more importantly, the western world owned radio stations like the BBC, VOA, Deutsche Welle, Radio France International, etc, they have a very large listenership of their Hausa programmes in the north.

Quality leadership will also a have strong impact on finding a solution to this crisis. For instance, despite being in primary school, this writer can still vividly remember how quality leadership skills were used to quench the 15th Feb. – 2nd March 1984 Maitatsine revolt in Jimeta-Yola, Adamawa State. In particular, the Late Lamido, Dr. Aliyu Mustafa and then Military Governor of old Gongola State, who is now the Emir of Gwandu, Alhaji Muhammad Bashir Illiyasu, showed quality leadership skills in bringing together community people of diverse background to defend their wards. For instance, in my ward, Clerks Quarters, a cosmopolitan area in Jimeta-Yola, where the Professor Emeritus, Okey Ndibe grew up, was defended by men of diverse ethnic and religious background. One of the groups was led by an Igbo man.

The north is in a crisis with itself, and it now seems the region has been infiltrated by forces outside the shores of Nigeria, as a result of the crisis. This is a challenge to the region, but a bigger one to her political, tradition, religious and business leaders. They have to return the region to her earlier, simple and brotherly way of life.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

How PDP Delegates May Vote

The battle for PDP’s presidential ticket between the two strongest contenders- President Goodluck Jonathan and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has reached its peak, by January 13, 2011, a winner will emerge. So far, the contest has been more exciting than a thriller. Both Goodluck and Atiku’s campaign organisations are using all the political weapons at their disposal, as if the battle is not just for a political party presidential ticket.

The ‘war’ is fiercer than that of any political game ever seen. We have been seeing some use of communication tactics & tools never before seen in a race to Aso Rock Villa. However, both groups know that the battle to win the votes of a political party’s delegates, especially delegates in Nigeria, is not fought solely using the conventional media, the new media or verbal attacks on each other, but by high-wired politicking full of manoeuvres, horse-trading and scheming.

The intense political scheming so far is a pointer to the fact that, the d-day would be hotter than the party’s February 1999 Jos convention, where former President Olusegun Obasanjo slugged it out with former Vice President Dr. Alex Ekwueme.

Ideally, there is no special process to win delegates’ votes, because they can vote for whoever they please. And candidates can use whatever power of persuasion they have at their disposal to win the support of the delegates. However, in the next coming PDP presidential primaries, as it were in the previous ones, five decisive factors would determine how the delegates will cast their votes.

Whichever order PDP conducts its primaries, Governors would have an overwhelming influence on how the delegates cast their votes. The delegates will gather merely to ratify the choice of the Governors. The choice of the Governors will be determined by where their political interest will be protected. Their interest lies on the second term tickets for those going for another term; the choice of their successors as well as control of the party machinery and structures.

Another set of people who will influence how PDP delegates would vote are the party’s bigwigs whose states are not controlled by a PDP government. This group have three interests which will determine how they will instruct their delegates to vote. Their interest lies on: the control of the party machinery; who gets their states’ governorship and other elective position tickets, in addition to their ‘economic’ interest.

Despite the fact that most of the delegates would be controlled by the aforementioned, a number of them would vote based on regional basis and personal affiliation with a candidate. Though, the bulk of this segment of delegates will trade their vote like a commercial commodity.

The fourth group that would influence how the delegates would cast their votes is the candidates themselves. This is where their skills on the use of the most potent political weapon would be tested. Nigerian politics is somehow ‘primitive’ in nature; any of the candidates who have a thorough grasp of its intricacies and masters delegates’ election process will use it to influence voting. The candidates’ skills in negotiation, reaching agreements as well as the talent in political manipulation within a very short time would also be a powerful ingredient.

Both Goodluck and Atiku must be at their best, come January 13, 2011, if not; they would be highly shocked. Reason being that, delegates’ election is like magic- it’s full of surprises- one’s strong allies would all of a sudden change course. This is because political interest is the first and only one thing politicians believe and worship. Thus, both Atiku and Jonathan should have it behind their minds that the current endorsements, re-endorsements and approvals of their candidature by politicians alike are merely part of the bigger game. However, both gentlemen have strong odds in their favour. For Goodluck: incumbency. Challenging and unseating a sitting President during his party’s primaries is a painstaking job, and very difficult. Incumbents traditionally win their party's nomination. The incumbent anywhere in the world is always the man to beat. In fact, the primaries are usually a walkover for him. He can always swing delegates’ votes with decisions which may appear ordinary.

For Atiku: he finds everything about politics fascinating and pays incredible attention to its details; that is why he has deep knowledge about it and this is reflected in his passion for it. Atiku’s weapons will be a well-organised political network, human resources and experience. Since 1990 convention of the defunct SDP, to 1999 and 2003 PDP convention, he has become a nightmare to his opponents in any delegates’ elections. The man has shown that he has the technology for winning delegates elections. He always saves his best tricks until the final. Bola Tinubu once described him as the only master strategist in Nigerian politics to whom he could concede superiority. It was reported that he has already infiltrated most of the delegates-the reason why Dr. Goodluck’s handlers went all-out to reverse the planned staggered presidential primaries and also attempted to change the order of the primaries, which was rejected by PDP Governors. The issue has to be settled through another public endorsement of Dr. Goodluck Presidential ambition. The seeming mistrust between the PDP Governors and the President is nothing but part of the game that compels both side not to put too much trust on each other. In politics, it is very normal.

The fifth and the most crucial factor that would determine how PDP delegates would vote is the ‘unknown’- how the night before the election day will turn out to be- the intricacies, manoeuvres , high wired politicking and indeed the ‘bucks’ that would exchange hands that night. What would happen that night would be the ‘mystery of January 13’. It would a dicey contest. Either of the two candidates will emerge the winner. After then, many things will change, but one unique thing about the PDP is that during general election time, its campaign podium will be mounted by Abubakar Bukola Saraki, Atiku Abubakar, General Aliyu Gusau, Goodluck Jonathan, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, Olusegun Obasanjo and their foot soldiers. Politics, as the saying goes, is really fascinating and very complex. It is the only permanent thing in life that most of the times its intricacies go beyond our imagination.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.