The North and Goodluck Jonathan Presidency

It is no news that Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is fully in-charge as the Acting President of the Federal Republic Nigeria. But the high-wired political intrigues, manoeuvres and horse-trading that heralded his emergence as the Acting President will continue to deepen as well as become very interesting. As events unfold, political pundits and students of history will have a lot to comment on, learn from and also use to predict things to come, while ordinary Nigerians will watch with keen interest.

The emergence of Yar’Adua as the President of Nigeria was a product of many factors. One of the main factors was the unwritten ‘agreement’ of power rotation between the north and south, which many observers see as undemocratic and also an offshoot of the never-ending ploy by the Nigerian political elites to continue to hold on to power, but it supporters described idea as the only way-out for all parts of the country to taste power.

Goodluck Jonathan’s Acting Presidency and the likelihood of him becoming the President will interweave within three issues; the return or otherwise of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the North’s political moves and Goodluck’s political future.

The north would be the epicentre of politics to come. Since the emergence of the facts about President Yar’Adua’s health status, political gladiators in the region are busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2011 presidential election, believing that the probability of Yar’Adua seeking a second term is very slim. There is strong feeling within the political class in the north, that the region must hold on to power till 2015 based on the aforementioned unwritten agreement, but most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the north that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the south to complete their eight years in power, the same north fielded candidates to seek the office of the President.

Let’s assume all things being equal, and the north is allowed to go solo; is the political class in the region ready to make amends and present a candidate that would bring dynamisms and also exhibit an understanding of global trends? The north had made a serious mistake by allowing Obasanjo to pick his choice to represent it, because the region had the political power to block Obasanjo then. Though, the beauty of this remains a lesson to other regions when their ‘turn’ comes.

Now that it appears the north is slowly losing the Presidency, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan will be closely watched by the region; in addition, his actions and inactions will be thoroughly read by the northern political class. In return, the Acting President has to face the north with two calculations in his mind. The first; he has to keep in his mind the likelihood of the return of his boss, Yar’Adua, in this case, Jonathan will employ his usual tactic of being Mr. Patient. So, those that are expecting him to go bananas will be disappointed. But if he eventually becomes the President, he has to play the imitable- approach the north through political manoeuvring that requires reaching painstaking political agreement and concessions. Politics, they say, is all about give and take.

However, if Yar’Adua returns, Jonathan’s political calculations will definitely change. As earlier mentioned, the man must have been playing his politics with two things in mind, the return or otherwise of his boss. If Yar’Adua returns, Jonathan’s calculations must be on how to remain the Vice President, regardless of who will be the presidential candidate that will be presented by the north. Though, the feeling in many quarters is, the likelihood of Yar’Adua going for second term is slim. But is Yar’Adua ready to allow the north to represent another candidate for the 2011 presidential elections. If the north presents another candidate, there is no grantee he/she will do only one term of four years, so as to allow the south takeover, thus jeopardising Acting President Goodluck Jonathan chance of becoming President after the north might have finished its two terms.

If Yar’Adua do not eventually return, and in the end Acting President Goodluck Jonathan becomes the President, there is nothing that can stop him from seeking election into the office of the President, in fact many political elites from the north will campaign for him if they see the possibilities of their interests being promoted. In that case, high-wired politics that involves manoeuvres and horse-trading will be employed. Another possible scenario is, if Jonathan performs excellently, this will give him the advantage of winning the heart of Nigerians. He may also use the leverage of being the President and impose himself in 2011 as the President using the machinery of the State.

Acting President Goodluck Jonathan’s political future will be determined by four issues, the first and the most important is the return or otherwise of President Yar’Adua, the second is the political direction of the north, the third is his political intention and his ability to craftily play the usual Nigerian politics, while the fourth which is also closely tied to the first is his performance in office. Acting President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself in a situation that both politics and policies may determine his political future. To see him through, he has to take careful political steps and intelligent policies, these require more than good luck!

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

Between Atiku and Boni Haruna

Between Atiku and Boni Haruna

Political pundits always say politics makes strange bedfellows. The apparent growing bumpy political-relationship between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the former Governor of the Adamawa State, Boni Haruna, is a proof to this old political saying.

Atiku and Boni have together made a long political journey. They both have enjoyed the fruits and also tasted the bitter parts of the journey. Their political relationship can be traced back to Atiku’s early days in politics- the former Vice President needed highly educated young men to be part of his political team, and Boni fitted in. Well, that was history, as many things have happened.

Today’s frosty political-relationship between Atiku and Boni Haruna is generating comments from three groups: Atiku’s political disciples, Boni’s followers and students of politics. Atiku’s sympathisers are of the opinion that, Boni Haruna has exhibited a character of an ingrate, they stressed that, it was by Atiku’s grace he became the Governor of Adamawa State. They were also quick to point-out the fact that, Atiku made Boni politically. From being a journalist to being Personal Assistant to former Gov. Jolly Nyame during the SDP days, and later picked him as his deputy when Atiku contested for Governor of Adamawa State. Atiku also stood firm by him to be the Governor, when he Atiku was selected by Obasanjo to be his deputy.

On the other hand, Boni’s followers are of the view that, Boni has done for Atiku, what some sons cannot do their fathers. They said Boni has given to Atiku an unalloyed loyalty during his difficult political moment- the famous Obasanjo-Atiku saga. They are also quick to point-out that, had it been, Boni pitched camp with Obasanjo during that time, Boni would get whatever he wanted from Obasanjo, including the keys to controlling Adamawa Politics. Boni’s follower always conclude that, “Boni was there for Atiku when he Atiku needed him most, but Atiku was not there for Boni, when he Boni needed just a little of him”



From another perspective, students of politics see the situation through the prisms of political calculations; they opined that, after the 2007 general elections, Atiku made some wrong political calculations. They believe that his failure to take advantage of the ‘PDM umbrella’ and negotiate with Yar’Adua to secure Adamawa politics to the advantage of his political group was a big blunder. Atiku could have taken the advantage of that moment that the PDP and Yar’Adua valued and dreaded him politically- i.e. before the Supreme Court judgment on his case against Yar’Adua’s election. Atiku’s solo trip was fruitless, because he disregarded intelligent political advice from people like Boni.



The political relationship between Atiku and Boni Haruna is very important in the political sphere of Adamawa State because of so many reasons: Atiku is a political power house in Adamawa. During his sway as Vice-President; his adored political son, Boni Haruna, got the privilege of becoming an important branch of Atiku’s political tentacles in Adamawa Sate. So, political groups in Adamawa will naturally have strong interest in Atiku and Boni political relationship.



As the 2011 election approaches and political activities continue to unfold, if Atiku and Boni finally go on separated political platforms; the duo will for certain employ five strategies to consolidate their positions and checkmate each other’s political moves. Atiku will employ three, while Boni will make use of two. Among Atiku’s three strategies is, he will try as much as he can to ignore Boni politically, employing that as a proof to the world that he and Boni are no political equals. Secondly, he will utilise both his financial and political muscles to checkmate Boni, while the third and the most significant is; Atiku will try to religiously maintain his followers in the AC and also attract new ones.



Boni’s two strategies will be: he will form a strong alliance with the PDP and also with the current government in Adamawa State, this will be for one reason, to attract many politicians from the AC, his former political appointees and other politicians who for long wanted to join the PDP and the government in Adamawa, but whom absence of a leader to lead them has hindered them. Boni’s second strategy will be using the aforementioned alliance to send a signal to the government at the centre and PDP at the national level, that he has great political clout to make him a factor in strengthening PDP’s grip of Adamawa.



Both Atiku and Boni will succeed if they cleverly use these strategies; however, the duo have certain roadblocks to dismantle in order to pull through. The PDP in Adamawa is seriously fragmented; Boni has to make some error-free calculations to avoid political suicide. For him to succeed, he has to apply two laws of power: Law 19: Know who you’re dealing with and Law 20: Do not commit to anyone.



For Atiku, he has to keep in his mind that many of his political supporters were use to be close to the corridor of powers, they are very thirsty for that, Boni’s move may be an eye opener for them, so, Atiku should expect that not all of them will swim and sink with him. Second law of power will work for him. Never put too much trust in friends, learn how to use enemies.

Who will be the winners of this seeming love-loss between Atiku and Boni? Three people of course: Boni’s former political appointees, the PDP in Adamawa state and some members of Atiku’s political family who want to always be at the centre of mainstream politics. While the losers are two people: Atiku and Boni, they will lose one thing, political-friendship.

However, political pundits are quick to point-out that, this kind of political game is not strange; it is an integral part of politicking. As the politics of 2011 is thickening, any politician that doesn’t play ‘politics’ with politics, he is like what Italian politicians refer to as ‘Nonentity Politico’. Politics, they say, is all about interest.



Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Little Things Can Make A Difference

Simons Kolawale’s Little Ideas That Mean Much, in his Sunday column in the Thisday Newspapers of 20th December, 2009, and Mahmud Jega’s Ten Outsourcings in his Monday column in the Daily Trust of 4th January, 2009, have drawn the attention of Nigerians to one issue- the missing things in Nigeria’s development efforts. There is strong consensus among Nigerians that something very important is lacking in Nigeria’s effort to attend an appreciable level of development.
What is completely missing in the leadership style of Nigerian political headship, is, attending to the basic things by employing ‘small things’. In Nigeria, the love for holistic approach to programmes, projects and setting-up of systems and institutions is very glaring. Nigeria’s policy formulators, bureaucrats and the political class find holistic approach irresistible. The leadership of the Nigerian state adores ‘carrying the camel and its loads’.
Though, the whole represents more than the sum of its parts, but the use of holistic approach in conceiving or building systems in Nigeria have proven to be a failure. For instances, Nigeria’s electricity sector was conceived based on a holistic idea- the former NEPA was saddled with the responsibility of generating, transmitting, distribution and marketing of electricity in the country, the result was; the present electricity crisis in the country. Other examples are: the urban water supply in Nigeria was built on the idea of holistic approach (a series-water-system) for an entire state. Whenever there is failure at a point, the entire state’s water supply crumbles. The structures of the federal government of Nigeria, from tip to toe were built on a holistic idea. The result is, a federal system in which the centre is overwhelmed with so many responsibilities.
Though, this is not an attempt to discredit the idea of the use of holistic approach as a tool in tackling Nigeria’s development. Rather, the approach should be used in identifying and defining Nigeria’s numerous problems. If the current style in tackling development issues in Nigeria is not yielding the desired results, as expected, then what is the alternative?-The use of reductionisms, perhaps. The time has come for Nigeria’s political class to embrace the governance-style which entails attending to the basic things by employing ‘small things’. This tactic was the backbone of China’s Chairman Mao, 1958, The Great Leap Forward, which China is today benefiting from. However, we must quickly acknowledge that a complete copycatting of Chairman Mao’s idea may not necessary be the solution to Nigeria’s infrastructural and other nagging problems. Nigeria’s leadership can employ a kind of middle-line approach— an approach that has to encompass new thinking, new strategy, new concept maps, that will completely aid in shifting away from the traditional way development is approached. Nigeria needs a new development strategy where development in agriculture, road, education, electricity, healthcare, water supply, youth development and the bloated federal system are tackled through ‘segmentation of the various sector into their smallest unit’, then a head-on tackling of each unit with the participation of all the three tiers of government- applying ‘small things’ approach, one may say.
Nigeria has a good number of superb agricultural policies and programmes, but implementation has been a major problem. Implementation has been difficult because the federal government has always wanted to do everything- formulator of policies and programmes, implementer, owner of the land, the importer of farm implements, producer and distributor of fertilizers and so on and so forth. This is not saying that the government at the centre shouldn’t be part of all these. But a kind of reductionistic approach is needed. An arrangement that will allow the federal, state, local governments and private sector play a specific role that will trigger community participation and the feel of ownership. Take for instance, an agricultural project that will make youth participation the centre-point of its implementation. A project that will initiate the participation of graduates as entrepreneurs; where local councils give the land, the state governments offer all the necessary extension services while the federal government provides collateral/surety for financial institutions to make available the necessary fund. This will reduce the number of tasks each tier of government will do and also allow concentration on such task, as well as promote true generation of wealth through agriculture.
Nigeria has about 108,000km of roads, the largest in West Africa and the second largest in South Saharan-Africa. However, these roads are poorly maintained. This is not because of the complete absence of funds, but a slipup on how to tackle road maintenance. Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) and some states’ road maintenance agencies have initiated many rehabilitation projects, but it appears their efforts are not yielding result. FERMA has introduced a very good initiative on road maintenance, the siting of road camps in some locations on Nigeria’s federal highways, but it seems the idea died from birth. The road camps were mere two-room blocks, without the necessary tools, facilities and manpower required of a road camp that would assist maintenance engineers, superintendents and foremen to perform their works in accordance with correct and efficient fundamentals. Had these road camps been properly setup, they would have brought about easy detection of road defects such potholes, ruts, gullies and soft spots on unpaved roads, as well as automatically introduced reductionism into Nigeria’s roads maintenance programmes, as each road camp will concentrate only on a specific kilometers on a particular federal highway. Though whatever method is used, when roads repair is done correctly, the repair will last a long time. Done poorly, it can soon become a growing expense.
This writer is a strong advocate of private sector greater participation in managing Nigeria’s public schools. But not a ‘bulldozer’ kind of participation, where government will entirely surrender these schools to private entrepreneurs- hence students; teachers and parent would be at the mercy of private hands. Nigeria needs a ‘measured’ public private partnership, where government builds new schools, equips old ones, then takes a benchmark from a well-run private school on what it cost per student head in running a school; then a gradual entrusting of public schools to private sector, where government provides the funds, taking into cognizance cost per student; as it is in private, while the private sector manages it especially in the area of infrastructures maintenance, provision of teaching tools, management of training programmes for teachers - hence, our educational system will be run efficiently, new sustainable jobs will be created and government get will relief from deadweight. This suggestion may appear odd, but a honest look at all the three tiers of government budgetary spending per student head, for sure it will exceeds the amount the best schools in Nigeria charge per student head.
Same idea can be applied to Nigeria’s healthcare sector. There is complete absence of health insurance for majority of Nigerians, except the current health insurance scheme for government employees and some private firms entering contracts with private health care providers. This scheme benefits less than one percent of Nigerians. Healthcare provision in Nigeria is a concurrent responsibility of the three tiers of government in the country. However, the state of healthcare in Nigeria has been worsened by a shortage of doctors, poor facilities and the most important, the shortage of drugs and poor attention to primary healthcare. Since Nigeria operates a mixed economy and corruption in government has not allowed availability of drugs and adequate maintenance of healthcare facility. Private providers of healthcare have a visible role to play in Nigeria healthcare delivery. Time has come for Nigeria to adopt Public Private Partnership in its healthcare sector. The government should equip old hospitals; build new one, then gradually handover their management to private healthcare provider. The government provides funding and effective monitoring, while the private sector manages it. This will enhance availability of drugs, eliminate corruption and bring continues improvement, as there will be competition among the private healthcare providers on quality of patient care, enhanced healthcare facilities and of course affordability. Though, this kind of collaborative approach to healthcare requires a painstaking laying-down of procedures, regulations, and management structures.

Since Nigeria’s big approach to development efforts has failed. Time has come to test the ‘Reductionism Approach’- attending to the basic things by employing small things. It may be a silver bullet.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Re-Invigorating The NYSC

The Punch Newspaper of Thursday, February 12th 2009, carried a story on its page 11, with a caption: ‘Wear NYSC Uniforms During Crisis’; the story goes as follows: “The Delta State Coordinator, National Youth Service Corps, Mrs. Edith Nweke, has asked youth corps members in their various places of primary assignment to wear NYSC uniforms as a mark of identification during crisis situation. The uniforms, according to her, communicate unity, peace and stability and are capable of protecting lives of corps members when danger looms, especially during communal clashes. Nweke in an exclusive interview with our (The Punch) correspondent in Asaba, said wearing the uniforms would also make warring parties to perceive serving members as neutral in time of conflicts.”

This writer is of the opinion that millions of Nigerians were in complete disagreement with the Delta State coordinator of the NYSC. This is because, once there is a crisis, whether communal, political or ethno-religious, the bloodthirsty perpetrators of such crisis and the stray bullets that fly around during crisis would not differentiate a person wearing the NYSC uniform from others. Apart from these, the trauma of being caught at such places and the apprehension corps members’ family members go through is another thing.

The NYSC of today is a mirror image of the present day Nigeria- it is so much engulfed by uncertainties; but there is hope for it revival. Anger with bitterness, pessimisms with despair and optimisms with little hope are today trailing the NYSC. The recent Jos crisis has brought out Nigerians’ diverse perceptions of today’s NYSC. The reason for that is absolutely not only the heart-saddening Jos crisis; but an indication that what we have is not what ought to be.

The National Youth Service Corps Decree No.24 of 22nd May 1973 which has now been repealed and replaced by Decree 51 of 16th June 1993, established the NYSC in a bid to reconstruct, reconcile and rebuild the country after the Nigerian civil war, with a view to the proper encouragement and development of common ties among the youths of Nigeria and the promotion of national unity; this was to inculcate in Nigerian youths the spirit of selfless service to communities, and to emphasize the spirit of oneness and brotherhood of all Nigerians, irrespective of cultural, religious or social background.

Has the NYSC achieved the objectives for which it was set-up? Is the scheme relevant to the present realities in the Nigerian society and the world at large? If one is optimistic about the scheme, one has to know that, what we have, is it what ought to be. At the same time, those that are pessimistic about the future and the relevance of the scheme in the present day Nigeria, have to know there are considerably some rooms for the restructuring of the scheme.

The NYSC has to be restructured in cognizance of the current Nigerian and global realities– especially as it relates to the economic uplift of the Nigerian youths. Time has come for the NYSC to be the engine room for in-depth research with a holistic approach to identify youth issues; marshal youth participation in the Nigerian economy and equip them with knowledge and skills to face emerging issues in the context of globalisation. Let the NYSC, in this ‘New World’’, be the springboard for the Nigerian Graduates to effectively participate in the global economy.
The scheme has to pull itself from the mentality of the regimental ‘by the left, quick march!’ approach - i.e. the situation where much emphasis is given to the two weeks orientation camp; after which corps members are left at the mercy of their primary employers and the harsh environment they may find themselves.

The one year national service should, and must be beyond the primary assignment, where more than 90 percent of corps members end up being discouraged and go through stern hardship; because only those that have the opportunity to serve in private sector get the chance to learn some new skills, practical walkthroughs and sound decision-making process.
The NYSC scheme has to be re-modified and its workings restructured so that it would serve as an apex organisation for the sensitisation and empowerment of Graduates to embrace the challenges of the complex world.

The first step is for the scheme to search for partners- both local and multinationals companies, for its funding and running of programmes such as establishment of invention and innovation centres. There are quite a number of private sector players who would be willing to contribute to that. The Nigerian Universities chunk out thousand of Computer Software Engineers, Operation Researchers, Applied Scientists, Designers, Agric-Engineers etc every year. These invention and innovation centres can serve as employers of corps members, at the same time as an avenue to train them for the larger world. Private sector players who are to manage these centres would also make the most of them in their R& D and for recruitment of fresh hands.

Another way which the scheme can use to re-define its objectives is in the area of effective revitalisation of the Corps Members Farming Project. This aspect of the scheme should be invigorated. The farms should be transformed into large scale farms, where corps members from different disciplines would apply their knowledge to manage them. However, the project has to be continuous and sustainable, i.e. a framework should be put in place so that commercial banks and other institution can come in.

As earlier mentioned, the NYSC should be restructured in such a way that it becomes the stepping-stone for the Nigerian Graduates to have skills; true knowledge on productive and profitable work environment; personal financial education; know-how on managing income and how to plan ahead and manage small projects. To achieve this, the NYSC needs a management that knows itself and what it stands for and do what is right. A management that is resourceful; courageous, corrupt-free and has an uncanny ability optimally taps youth’s constructive and creative energies and develops their personality and entrepreneurial skills.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

New Approach To Salvaging The Education Sector

It is no more news, Nigeria is witnessing systems deterioration. The most worrying and one that requires urgent, systematic and systemic attention, is the education sector.

The confusion, lack of stability and misdirection in the Nigerian education sector has reached a stage that the sector needs a radical restructuring and galvanization composing of reforms similar to that of Soviet Union 1980’s Glasnost and Perestroika reforms; the 1947 European Recovery Program,- The Marshall Plan and China’s Chairman Mao, 1958,The Great Leap Forward. Perhaps, one may sound as an alarmist; but we need such kind of reforms in order to further liberalize the sector, recreate and rebuild its hitherto strong foundation and bring new ideas and thinking to policy planning and effective management of the sector.

Nigeria has for the several years formulated quite a number of education policies. The country has organised so many seminars and conferences, collected voluminous proposals and blueprints from both local and international experts, on how to salvage the education sector. Does it mean that all those past efforts were not in the right direction? Of course not, what was missing was the leadership’s political will, and the right team to push the right button. Though, this not a call for the usual way Nigerian government does things. It is a known fact that from the late 80’s, public schools in Nigeria, have been bewildered by perpetual labour disputes, government incessant revision of the education curriculum, constant amending of schools calendar, and the seeming joy in altering and introducing new policies in the education system.

There is a huge hole in the heart of our education system. Thus, as nation, we dearly need a means that can finally construct a plan that will solve the continuously increasing problems in our education system. We really need a shift in the way our schools are run. And we have to put up a system that will provide adequate funding and help in improving the standard and quality of both teachers and students; a system that will completely aid in shifting away from the tradition- where government is the provider, administrator, monitor and assessor of how fund are utilized. Though, he who pays the piper calls the tune.

Nigeria as a nation has three options on how to breathe life into the education sector: first is outright government shouldering of the management of the sector; the second is leaving everything to the private sector; while the third option is opting for Public Private Partnership.
The first option, i.e. outright government shouldering the management of the education sector seems to have failed, largely due to corruption and mismanagement, because the system has worked before. During the 50’s 60’s and even early 70’s the Nigerian education system has clothed, fed, educated and provided readily available jobs for the teaming educated Nigerians. However, the irony is; those who had the benefit of the system, are the ones who destroyed it.
The second option i.e. leaving every thing to private sector hands, should not be in anybody’s mine, as it would be detrimental to the progress of Nigeria. This is because once the education sector is left to the mercy of private hands; many Nigerian children would be shut-out of school, since majority of Nigerians cannot afford the fees charged by privately owned educational institution. Thus the nation would miss the opportunity of developing the best of her human capital.

Looking at the present state of administration of our education system, it seems private sector participation in the sector is inevitable. This writer is a strong advocate of private sector greater participation in managing our public schools; but not a ‘bulldozer’ kind of participation, where government will entirely surrender these schools to private entrepreneurs- thus, students, teachers and parents would be at the mercy of private hands. What we need is, a ‘measured’ Public Private Partnership, where government should build new schools, equip old ones. Then take a benchmark from a well-run private school on what it costs per student-head in running a school; then a gradual entrusting of public schools to private sector, where government provides the funds, taking into cognizance the cost per student; as it is in private scholls, while the private sector manages it especially in the area of infrastructures maintenance, provision of teaching tools, management of training programmes for teachers - hence, our educational system will be run efficiently, new sustainable jobs will be created and government will be relieved from the burden of ‘ carrying the camel and its loads’. This suggestion may appear odd. However, an honest assessment of the budgetary spending per student head by the three tiers of government will for sure for show that the amount spent by the government per student head exceeds the one the best schools in Nigeria charge per student head.

As earlier mentioned, the type of reform, the Nigerian education system needs should be systematic as well as systemic. It has to cover primary, secondary and tertiary schools, at the same give emphasis to prioritization of need. And all the three tiers of government as well as the private sector should participate effectively and efficiently with well-spelled roles to be played by each.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980