Adamawa Emirate under Lamido Barkindo

A year ago, Lamido Dr. Muhammad Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa stepped into the big shoes left by his late father- Lamido Dr. Aliyu Musdafa- a man who left a cherished legacy. For the nearly six decades he steered Adamawa Emirate, he brought new approaches to the way the Emirate was administered; promoted harmony among his heterogeneous subjects and brought more respect to the 200 year old Emirate.

Today, it is more than a year, after His Royal Highness, Dr. Muhammad Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa was turbaned as Lamido Adamawa. What is his rating among his subjects? What are his styles of leadership? Are there signs that he is following the footsteps and teachings of his late father? Though, historians and the Lamido himself accepted that, to emulate great men like late Lamido Aliyu Musdafa is a herculean task. But princes worth their salts, all the time, emulate and follow the good footsteps of their fathers- kings.

In May 1980, Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa was turbaned as Ciroma Adamawa (one who oversees natural resources and veterinary cases of the Emirate), by his late father. His ascension to that position at the age of 36, was a clear sign of the confidence posed in him by his late father; the Adamawa Emirate and the entire Adamawa people. It was also a sign of being purposefully positioned to lead the Emirate.

The citizens of Adamawa Emirate see Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa as a modern Emir that understands the difference between passion for excellence and that for power. He was once quoted to have said: “traditional titles are not for sale and would be given only to worthy candidates based on recommendations of the Emirate's king makers”. As providence will have it, Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa was chosen as the 12th Lamido of Adamawa, based on his natural character as a great leader; his visible achievements in life and contributions to the development of Adamawa state.

Lamido Barkindo was born in Yola in February 1944. He attended Barewa College, Zaria and later Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria where he obtained a Diploma in Law in 1969. He also attended North London Polytechnic (1973–1975) and St Clements University in the Turks and Caicos Islands (2000–2002). He worked with the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian Port Authority and the National Freight Company. He was appointed Commissioner for Works and later a Commissioner for Animal Health in the former Gongola State. The Lamido was a Director at the National Engineering and Technical Company (1991–1993), Chairman of Sterling Civil Engineering Nigeria Limited (1991–2003) and Chairman of the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria (2003–2005).

His Father, Late Lamido Dr Aliyu Mustafa, was a man for all- irrespective of ethnic, religious, educational or social background. He brought dynamism into the Emirate, which was founded in 1806, by Modibbo Adama bin Ardo Hassana, a disciple of Othman Danfodio.

Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa is doggedly following the footsteps of his father and showing signs that he has learnt a lot from his closeness to him. His regular interaction with his subjects and excellent community development initiatives are worth appreciating.

The recent appointment he made into the traditional council was a sign of his intelligent decision making ability. Just like his father will do, the individuals who got the traditional tittles cut across borders.The Lamido never compromises merit, as well as contribution to the society. Those he appointed were: Senator Bello Tukur- Sarki Yaki Adamawa, Mr. James Barka, the speaker Adamawa State House of Assembly, as Magatakarda Adamawa; Dr. Sanusi Barkindo, former GMD of the NNPC- Wali Adamawa; Mr. Kobis Ari Thimnu, the Secretary to the Adamawa State Government as Katuka Adamawa; Alhaji Muhammad Aminu Abdulkadir, IPMAN National President- was given the title of Sarki Hurumi Adamawa, while Alhaji Muhammad Ibrahim Attah, as Mai Borno Adamawa. One thing worth noting is, the Lamido also never hesitate in approving for District Heads to recognise individuals in their domains who are contributing to the development of their communities. For instance, the District Head of Jimeta, who is also the Dan Isa Adamawa, recently conferred traditional titles on some individuals: Alhaji Suleiman Inuwa Paris- Adamawa state Auditor General, as Dan Iya Jimeta; Alhaji Lawan Abubakar Musa, Managing Director of Adamawa Savings and Loans as Dan Galadima Jimeta, while a young, dynamic and enterprising insurance-underwriter, Mohammed Dahiru Garba Esq. was conferred with the title of Garkuwa Jimeta.

Lamido Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Mustafa is a tradition ruler with style of a modern day democratic administrator- he has a clear and vivid picture of what success looks like and where he intends to take the Adamawa Emirate to. He has a high regard for confident people but abhors pride; he admires hard-work and encourages his subjects to be productive. The Adamawa people are happy that Lamido Barkindo’s leadership styles, thinking and doggedness in promoting peace and non discrimination among his subjects and humanity as a whole are similar to that of his late father- Late Lamido Dr. Aliyu Mustafa.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

The North and Jonathan Presidency

Beginning from May 29, 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan has a new four year mandate as President of Nigeria. His declaration as President-elect by INEC propelled the historic April 17th, 2011, Talakwas revolt against today’s northern Nigerian elites, and violent protests that swept across some states of the region. The protests, which hoodlums and miscreants took advantage of, to kill innocent people and destroy properties, were senseless and regretful occurences that nearly spoilt the joy of the nation.

As a result of this situation, some questions are pertinent-were the protests against Jonathan in person? No they weren’t. Were they purely ethnic, religious or regional? No they weren’t. Were they because Buhari as a northerner was not declared President-elect? Equally they weren’t. Then, why the protests? They were protests triggered and aided by one monster: extreme-abject-poverty.

A great number of Nigerians live below poverty-line, but the poverty level in the north is disturbing-a level that has put the Talakawas in a desperate search for a messiah to free them from the prison of poverty.

Today, the Talakwas and the leadership of the north are no more on the same page. Thus, there is a strong conviction in the hearts of the Talakwas that any interest or individual being promoted by a certain group of the northern leadership, will only aggravate their anguish.

Whoever is the President of Nigeria, is a President for all. The political tradition in Nigeria is, the President, often relates with all sections of the country through their leaders. In case of the north, it is the political, traditional and the religious leaders. This is because, the northern Nigerian culture proposes that everyone accords unalloyed loyalty to these leaders.

The north has changed, the people’s thinking and aspirations have changed. Today, in the north, most of the leaders are no more on same pages with their followership. With this changed situation and the protests that trailed the declaration of Goodluck Jonathan as President-elect, there is a thorny, as well as a golden opportunity for Goodluck Jonathan. The thorny side is that, he has to give the north, a fresh development plan that is truly people-oriented, workable and credible. And trigger a political realignment that may be unpopular with some elites. In addition to this, he has to proffer an alternative education direction that would tackle the peculiar situation in the north. The present situation in the north is also a golden opportunity for President Goodluck Jonathan to show and tell the Talakawas in the region: hey! I have with me that ‘hope’ you see in Muhammadu Buhari. How would the Goodluck Jonathan’s Presidency achieve these? As earlier said, President Goodluck Jonathan should face the north by taking careful and intelligent political and policy steps.

The President has to design some speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor; introduce agricultural programs that will reach rural, small scale farmers and the youth, as well as, make them feel ownership of these programs.

There is a huge hole in the heart of northern Nigeria’s education system. Thus, the region’s education sector extremely needs restructuring and galvanizing similar to that of Soviet Union 1980’s glasnost and perestroika. So that there will be means of providing adequate funding; tackling the Almajiri phenomenon through workable integration of Quranic schools with formal schools and promotion of girl-child education.

The leadership in the north have woefully failed in freeing their Talakwas from poverty, illiteracy, and underdevelopment. If President Goodluck can demonstrate a little sign of providing practical solutions to these problems, the Talakawas of the north will definitely see in him the ‘Muhammadu Buhari’ they are searching for.

There is a strong urge in the north for a fresh socio-economic and political direction reminiscent of the old north- where; leadership is people oriented; ‘we’ and ‘they’ feelings never exist and life is simple and productive. How would President Goodluck Jonathan contribute to this, when a great number of the leadership in the region is no more revered by the people? Do we expect the President to sideline the political, traditional and religious leaders of the north? Certainly no. The President should employ both systematic and systemic approach- i.e. have in his mind that he has three groups to face in the north: the political elites; the Talakawas and a unique emerging group of educated young northerners who are advocating of a new approach.

The President should face the leadership of the region based on what they know best- the principle and foundation of negotiations and persuasion. It may be unpopular with the elites and may require strong political will. But President Goodluck should be bold enough to tell them- This time is for the Talakwas of the north- because ‘I told the world, I am one of them’ (the poor).

The general opinion in the north is, the region is in need of a paradigm shift in its development and political direction, in such a way that the region will welcome a Nigerian leader who listens to new ideas; accepts new ways of doing things; as well as has a clear and vivid picture of what success looks like and how to achieve it. Someone who can move with a speed commensurate with the expectations of Talakwas in bringing new thinking and synergy to the public sector through feasible ideas that will bring development in all spheres of north’s economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities; fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services , ranging from health and social programs, electricity, police protection, maintain a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the reinvigoration of the small scale industries, roads construction and human capital development.

The Talakwas of the north are just looking for a Nigerian that will lead Nigeria with honesty, firmness and free them from the prison of abject poverty; not someone who will hide behind regionalism to consolidate on cronyism and self enrichment. Jonathan can give the north such a leadership.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980. He blogs at www.zayyaddp.blogspot.com

Jonathan and the Presidential Summit on Job Creation

President Goodluck Jonathan; top government officials and leaders of the private sector, on Tuesday 12th April, 2011, attended a presidential summit of job creation, organised by The National Economic Management Team (NEMT). The summit brainstormed on areas like small and growing business and entrepreneurship, vocational education and job centres; graduate employment and businesses process outsourcing, public work and local content development and innovation. Pessimists see the summit as the usual ploy by Nigerian politicians to get votes during election time, while optimists see it as good step in the right direction.

Whichever way one sees it, the truth is, widespread unemployment is the grease that smoothens the spread of abject poverty and insecurity in Nigeria. Indeed, the hallmark of poverty and crimes in Nigeria is the high level of unemployment among her active-age citizens. If Nigeria can tackle the high rate of unemployment in the country by creation of productive employment for its millions of unemployed citizens and those engaged in unproductive-manual jobs, doors to prosperity in the land will open.

Even in developed countries, unemployment rates may be high and availability of jobs also tends to fluctuate, creating periods of high joblessness. However, most stable and promising countries have systems in placed to cushion and tackle such situations. Nigeria being a country with high population, an unemployment level of only a few percentage means that millions of working-age people will be unemployed and unable to earn adequate income for a decent living. This should be an issue of great concern to the political leaders and managers of Nigeria’s economy, because, one of the basic ingredient in the reduction of crimes and attainment of sustainable general social order in any society, is the availability of jobs for majority of the working population- especially the youth.

The National Economic Management Team (NEMT), the organisers of the summit, should have it on their minds that various Nigerian governments have organised many summits; established quite a number of employment creation programmes, projects and policies, including the setting-up of the National Directorate of Employment and various states’ agencies. However, the unemployment rate in Nigeria is growing astronomically. The big question is- what went wrong? Two issues of course: The old notion among policy formulators and managers of Nigeria’s economy that unemployment is wage unemployment and that it is an urban phenomenon. Second to this is, the near failure of most of the employment and poverty eradication programmes to encourage the youth, rural dwellers and the poor to participate in and benefit from the process.

Nigeria needs to redesign her jobs and wealth creation programmes for better results. This will go a long way in increasing national output that will speed up and sustain economic growth, as well as, encourage the youth, private sector and the rural poor to be strong participants in the economy. Futhermore, there is need for the elimination of what experts call ‘disguised unemployment’- which prevails especially in the Nigerian agricultural sector.

The summit’s agenda, which include, small and growing business, entrepreneurship, vocational education and job centres; graduate employment and business process outsourcing, public work and local content development and innovation are excellent. However, there is need for these to be implemented in such a way that they encourage the youth, rural dwellers and the poor to participate in and benefit from the process, while also complementing them with lower taxes, reduction of interest rates as well as incentives to businesses.

One of the most important strategies to tackle unemployment is an agricultural entrepreneurship programme for youth. It is good news that the Federal Government is already looking at that direction. The Government should go into partnership with private sector to establish poultry, fisheries, dairy, snellnaries farms, plantations etc in various locations in the country. The pilot phase should start with youth corpers. They should be trained-on-the-job on how to manage farms. After passing-out from the NYSC scheme, the farms should be transferred to them for management as entrepreneurs. The scheme should work in such a way that local councils and state governments should provide lands and other logistics, the private sector provides the fund while the federal government stands as the guarantor of fund. This will be done through the issuance of either callable, par value or coupon rate bonds. The private investors or financial institutions who will participate in the scheme are not to give money directly to the governments in order to receive the bond-certificate, but it would be a kind of batter arrangement; where the investors- either financial institution or private individuals would setup farms, in addition to putting in place all structures required in a standard farms. After which a bond certificate equivalent to the cost, which is to be determine by both parties and experts will be issued to them. The youths, to whom the farms are to be transferred, should gradually refund the monies back to the government; so as to make the scheme a revolving one, as well as to eliminate any form of mismanagement or corruption.

The summit also discussed Ideas Development as a way to create employment for Nigerians i.e. the well known concept of: Innovate, create, invent and invest. Though experts say it is the most difficult but the most effective way to create long-term employment. Nigeria churns out thousands of graduates- engineers, computers programmers, architects, operations researchers, chemists, designers etc yearly. The Nigerian government should establish additional innovation and invention centers across the country and in universities. The centers should work in such a way that, graduates with technical skills and entrepreneurship passion, will have access to facilities and environment that support thinking for invention and innovation. The Raw Material Research and Development Agency, National Technology Incubation Centre, Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria [SMEDAN], National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion as well as Bank of Industries will play a vital role in such a scheme. Moreover, private investors can also be major participants, as they can play the role of fund providers for any invention or innovation that has market potentials. With this kind of scheme, it is possible to see new industries surface; the economy gradually grow and lots of good paying jobs created.

The setting-up of small scale industries is also a good way to create jobs. This can be done through systemic as well as systematic approach- i.e. steer resources into the productive process as well as tied it to the aforementioned two ways to create employment- agricultures and ideas development. Goods produced from the farms and the technologies developed from the R&D centres will serve as raw materials for the industries. The Nigerian markets are overflowing with imported products, such as razor blades, pine needles, envelopes, keys and padlocks, cotton buds, toys, shoelaces, safety matches, umbrellas, doormats, office square clips, treasury tags, table flags, carpets. Though, no country is free from imported products. However, most of these items are produced from agricultural produce and simple technologies developed by graduates and under-graduates and manufactured by small industries owned and run by a family of two or three in Shanghai, Taipei, Manila or Bombay. These small industries can be powered and run by solar panels or small wind turbines. Nigeria has the resources and human capital to develop such small industries.

The waste to wealth programme has been a much talked about issue in Nigeria. However, no concentrated government effort has been put in place for Nigeria to take advantage of the enormous wastes the country generates. The waste to wealth approach is another way to create productive employment for Nigeria. This can be tied to small scale industries development. All the three tiers of government should establish or support private efforts in wastes processing centres for plastics, scrap steel, paper, organic waste etc.

Another way to create more jobs and wealth for Nigerians is through the strengthening and supporting the already existing industries, which were developed outside any formal support. These include sport, music, art, fashion design and the movie industries. Nigerian government can use these industries to create jobs and generate wealth, by hunting for top quality talented Nigerians, provide them with world–class training through assisting private entrepreneurs to establish well-equipped recording studios, sport development enterprises and remove every obstacle that hampers the flourishing of these industries. The federal government recent 200 million dollar entertainment industry intervention funds, as well as CBN’s aggressive support to private businesses are good steps.

The electricity sector reform is ongoing. However, the government is not talking about a very important aspect of it- how common Nigerians can be major players in the industry. PHCN still sells electricity credit voucher directly to consumers. A system similar to the telecommunication industry should be established, so that ordinary Nigerians can start selling PHCN electricity vouchers to consumers. This will create more jobs as well as ease the purchase of the electricity credit vouchers

No employment and wealth creation programmes or project can succeed without adequate funding; availability of efficient and reliable electricity, as well as good planning. Nigeria is not a super-rich nation and is also facing a daunting electricity crisis. Does that mean the country has to wait until it solves these problems before embarking on a workable job creation project? Certainly, no. Funding can be sourced through public-private partnership. Governments at all levels can also offer big establishments tax incentives- Tax relief for jobs – government should grant tax relief for businesses in return for the employment and support to individuals in the area of research and ideas development. Another way to source for funds includes an aggressive drive in getting lottery taxes paid- because lottery is now a huge business in Nigeria. For instance, most of the telecom operators are big lottery players- so the government can get substantial funds if every lottery player pays the right tax. The proposed investment of the unclaimed shares’ dividend is another way to generate funds for such a scheme. Lastly, another way to generate fund is via states’ partnership – where two or three states come together contribute funds monthly, bi-monthly or tri-monthly to fund any of the suggested ways to create employment. This should go round each of the contributing state within the chosen period.

Apart from the issues of funding and poor infrastructure; adhoc planning has been a major factor that contributes to failure of most efforts by government to tackle the high rate of unemployment in Nigeria. The activities of job and wealth creation agencies of government should be streamlined in such a way that each agency will focus on a specific field or medium of job creation. For example, NAPEP should concentrate on supporting artisans to develop and improve their skills; SMEDEN should concentrate on job creation via small scales industries; National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion via ideas development, NDE on job creation through agriculture; while the NYSC should be revitalized to also function as graduates’ job creation agency etc. This writer elaborated on how the NYSC can be galvanized to play such role in a piece published in the Thisday of March 10, 2009, Page 18 and the Daily Trust of Feb 26, 2009, Page 12.

The Presidential Summit on Job Creation recommendations should be a Nigerian project- it should be a true reflection of its theme- Putting Nigerians to Work For Nigeria. It implementation should be productive and beneficial to the Nigeria society for years to come. This will assure both pessimists and optimist that it is a clear leap forward for job creation- especially for the youth.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

 

Northern Nigeria New Challenge

The politics of who gets what shouldn’t be of much concern to northern Nigeria, but the growing sectarian violence of a frightening magnitude, fuelled by economic crisis and wide gap in social–order. It’s northern Nigeria’s 21st century new challenge. Despite the fact that this recurrent violent conflict has its roots in the social and economic turmoil arising out of the region’s age-long challenges of absolute poverty, illiteracy, ethnic and religious differences, two others factors have also helped to escalate the crisis to its present terrifying point. The two factors are: the continuing decline in the patriotic zeal of north’s political class to free the region from the prison of underdevelopment. And, the growing ‘We’ and ‘They’ feeling that is gradually defining life in the north.

In every instance, the region’s poor, the weak and rural dwellers are often the victims. Their self-help efforts to battle and surmount these challenges always met brick walls. Indeed, the common people’s efforts seem not enough and their hope of feasible solutions from the constituted authorities has always been dashed. It thus seems, the political class in the north has failed the masses.

Notwithstanding the locations, magnitude, as well as the victims of this growing violent conflict, everyone, including the political, religious, traditional and the business classes, in their comfort zones, must get ready to take up a political, legal and ideological war against this recurrent violence. In fact, the elites of the north must realize that outsiders’ perception of the north, which they claim leadership over, has changed. Reason being that, other Nigerians and the world see what is happening in the north as an extension of global terrorism. The world would now pay more attention to northern Nigeria and the region will increasingly be in the news, negatively, and as it appears, it might be there for a long time.

This is a big challenge to northern Nigeria political, traditional and religious class; because the world and the indeed the Nigerian state demand a lot from them. Good leaders are always expected to proffer quick and timely solutions to their society’s nagging problems. But is the leadership in the north ready to confront this new challenge head-on? Or are we in for the usual Nigerian political leader’s habit of ignoring problems with a wave of hand, thinking it will naturally die-out? Ignoring this crisis is costing the north a lot. It is time for a rethink. Northern leaders should turn things around because the situation we are is not where we ought to be.

The recent bomb explosions and flashes of gruesome attacks in some parts of the north have given an international dimension to a local ethno-religious-economic conflict hitherto being fought with words–of-mouth, machetes, swords, bows and arrows. Some observers are of strong opinion that international terror groups have infiltrated Nigeria’s shores. If this assumption is established to be true, then, the political class in the north and indeed Nigeria, should remind themselves that since the 9/11 attacks on the United States, the war on terror has taken a different dimension, it is now presented as military, political, legal and ideological war against regimes, regions and organizations that has ties with or shows any signs of being potential terrorists sleeper cell. Is northern Nigeria and Nigeria as a whole ready to face this big challenge? The answer is anybody’s guess.

Terrorism has become increasingly common among those pursuing extreme goals throughout the world. Thus, fighting it has become a herculean task; it requires intensive intelligent gathering, as well as cross-border cooperation. Terrorism being a conflict that often dazzles authorities; when it rears its head, the nature may not be fully realised. And criminal activity may be mistaken for terrorism, or the other way round. So, authorities, especially the political class in the north should tackle this new challenge via two ways: first is development that will align with the expectations of the people, while the second is enlightening and educating the populace through honest engagement.

The basic causes of poverty in northern Nigeria are the absence of an enabling environment that will free the people from the prison of poverty; unequal distribution of resources; lack of basic education and infrastructure, in addition to the absence of employment opportunities that would raise peoples’ living standard and provide ways to assist them turn their dreams into reality. The north can fairly get wealthy by simultaneously developing her agricultural sector, small scale industries and human capital. That is, putting in place a process through which the region’s economy is transformed over defined period, by the revitalization of the agricultural sector, propelling small scale industrialisation and placing the region in a position so that her citizens can take advantage of the vast opportunities the Nigerian and the world economies offer. More importantly, the development plan should be tied to creating employment opportunities for the youth through education, training and reliable micro-finance systems.

The aforementioned second way to confront this violence is enlightening the people. This should be skewed towards the use of the radio. Radio is an important medium of reaching majority of the people in the north. In fact, almost everybody in the region listens to the radio in the morning before going work, afternoon and in the night before going to sleep. State governments should collaborate with local radio stations, NGOs and more importantly, the western world owned radio stations like the BBC, VOA, Deutsche Welle, Radio France International, etc, they have a very large listenership of their Hausa programmes in the north.

Quality leadership will also a have strong impact on finding a solution to this crisis. For instance, despite being in primary school, this writer can still vividly remember how quality leadership skills were used to quench the 15th Feb. – 2nd March 1984 Maitatsine revolt in Jimeta-Yola, Adamawa State. In particular, the Late Lamido, Dr. Aliyu Mustafa and then Military Governor of old Gongola State, who is now the Emir of Gwandu, Alhaji Muhammad Bashir Illiyasu, showed quality leadership skills in bringing together community people of diverse background to defend their wards. For instance, in my ward, Clerks Quarters, a cosmopolitan area in Jimeta-Yola, where the Professor Emeritus, Okey Ndibe grew up, was defended by men of diverse ethnic and religious background. One of the groups was led by an Igbo man.

The north is in a crisis with itself, and it now seems the region has been infiltrated by forces outside the shores of Nigeria, as a result of the crisis. This is a challenge to the region, but a bigger one to her political, tradition, religious and business leaders. They have to return the region to her earlier, simple and brotherly way of life.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

How PDP Delegates May Vote

The battle for PDP’s presidential ticket between the two strongest contenders- President Goodluck Jonathan and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has reached its peak, by January 13, 2011, a winner will emerge. So far, the contest has been more exciting than a thriller. Both Goodluck and Atiku’s campaign organisations are using all the political weapons at their disposal, as if the battle is not just for a political party presidential ticket.

The ‘war’ is fiercer than that of any political game ever seen. We have been seeing some use of communication tactics & tools never before seen in a race to Aso Rock Villa. However, both groups know that the battle to win the votes of a political party’s delegates, especially delegates in Nigeria, is not fought solely using the conventional media, the new media or verbal attacks on each other, but by high-wired politicking full of manoeuvres, horse-trading and scheming.

The intense political scheming so far is a pointer to the fact that, the d-day would be hotter than the party’s February 1999 Jos convention, where former President Olusegun Obasanjo slugged it out with former Vice President Dr. Alex Ekwueme.

Ideally, there is no special process to win delegates’ votes, because they can vote for whoever they please. And candidates can use whatever power of persuasion they have at their disposal to win the support of the delegates. However, in the next coming PDP presidential primaries, as it were in the previous ones, five decisive factors would determine how the delegates will cast their votes.

Whichever order PDP conducts its primaries, Governors would have an overwhelming influence on how the delegates cast their votes. The delegates will gather merely to ratify the choice of the Governors. The choice of the Governors will be determined by where their political interest will be protected. Their interest lies on the second term tickets for those going for another term; the choice of their successors as well as control of the party machinery and structures.

Another set of people who will influence how PDP delegates would vote are the party’s bigwigs whose states are not controlled by a PDP government. This group have three interests which will determine how they will instruct their delegates to vote. Their interest lies on: the control of the party machinery; who gets their states’ governorship and other elective position tickets, in addition to their ‘economic’ interest.

Despite the fact that most of the delegates would be controlled by the aforementioned, a number of them would vote based on regional basis and personal affiliation with a candidate. Though, the bulk of this segment of delegates will trade their vote like a commercial commodity.

The fourth group that would influence how the delegates would cast their votes is the candidates themselves. This is where their skills on the use of the most potent political weapon would be tested. Nigerian politics is somehow ‘primitive’ in nature; any of the candidates who have a thorough grasp of its intricacies and masters delegates’ election process will use it to influence voting. The candidates’ skills in negotiation, reaching agreements as well as the talent in political manipulation within a very short time would also be a powerful ingredient.

Both Goodluck and Atiku must be at their best, come January 13, 2011, if not; they would be highly shocked. Reason being that, delegates’ election is like magic- it’s full of surprises- one’s strong allies would all of a sudden change course. This is because political interest is the first and only one thing politicians believe and worship. Thus, both Atiku and Jonathan should have it behind their minds that the current endorsements, re-endorsements and approvals of their candidature by politicians alike are merely part of the bigger game. However, both gentlemen have strong odds in their favour. For Goodluck: incumbency. Challenging and unseating a sitting President during his party’s primaries is a painstaking job, and very difficult. Incumbents traditionally win their party's nomination. The incumbent anywhere in the world is always the man to beat. In fact, the primaries are usually a walkover for him. He can always swing delegates’ votes with decisions which may appear ordinary.

For Atiku: he finds everything about politics fascinating and pays incredible attention to its details; that is why he has deep knowledge about it and this is reflected in his passion for it. Atiku’s weapons will be a well-organised political network, human resources and experience. Since 1990 convention of the defunct SDP, to 1999 and 2003 PDP convention, he has become a nightmare to his opponents in any delegates’ elections. The man has shown that he has the technology for winning delegates elections. He always saves his best tricks until the final. Bola Tinubu once described him as the only master strategist in Nigerian politics to whom he could concede superiority. It was reported that he has already infiltrated most of the delegates-the reason why Dr. Goodluck’s handlers went all-out to reverse the planned staggered presidential primaries and also attempted to change the order of the primaries, which was rejected by PDP Governors. The issue has to be settled through another public endorsement of Dr. Goodluck Presidential ambition. The seeming mistrust between the PDP Governors and the President is nothing but part of the game that compels both side not to put too much trust on each other. In politics, it is very normal.

The fifth and the most crucial factor that would determine how PDP delegates would vote is the ‘unknown’- how the night before the election day will turn out to be- the intricacies, manoeuvres , high wired politicking and indeed the ‘bucks’ that would exchange hands that night. What would happen that night would be the ‘mystery of January 13’. It would a dicey contest. Either of the two candidates will emerge the winner. After then, many things will change, but one unique thing about the PDP is that during general election time, its campaign podium will be mounted by Abubakar Bukola Saraki, Atiku Abubakar, General Aliyu Gusau, Goodluck Jonathan, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, Olusegun Obasanjo and their foot soldiers. Politics, as the saying goes, is really fascinating and very complex. It is the only permanent thing in life that most of the times its intricacies go beyond our imagination.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

It’s Time to Reduce Poverty in Nigeria

The average Nigerian is a poor man. Indeed, Nigeria is a country of riches and poverty- splendid wealth in few hands and extreme abject poverty at most people’s doorsteps. The problem of poverty is colossal and pervasive in the country and it has many causes. The number of people living in poverty has increased due to rising disparities in the distribution of resources in the country. However, the basic cause of poverty in Nigeria is the absence of an enabling environment that will free the people from the prison of poverty; uplift their living standard and provide ways to assist them turn their dreams into reality.

It is a fact that primary factors that lead to poverty, such as overpopulation, unequal distribution of resources, lack of basic education, absence of employment opportunities, as well as environmental degradation are quite intractable and not easily eradicated, but the average Nigerian can leapfrog the ladder of prosperity; once the routes to achieving basic living standards are smoothened. Who should create these conditions? - The government at all the three levels. How? By imbibing the political will that propels new thinking within the political class as well as brings sustained all-inclusive economic growth.

In most cases, government actions and inaction create a good number of the causes of poverty. Therefore, the government that contributed in making people poor must also create conditions that will bring opportunities for prosperity. For the 50 years of the Nigeria’s existence, various governments have put in place poverty eradication programmes and policies. Yet, the average Nigerian is worse-off. The National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP), the primary agency of government charged with the responsibility of coordinating and monitoring all poverty eradication activities has designed many programmes and policies meant to reduce poverty, one of these is The Village Economic Development Solutions Programme, a community based programme aimed at encouraging mass participation in the economic development process through the establishment of anchor economic activities at the grassroots, helping peasant farmers get ready markets for their farm produce. This is a good initiative, but it cannot in anyway reduce poverty, because, subsistence farming and unproductive manual jobs cannot remarkably improve a country’s GDP. And, a country’s level of poverty can depend greatly on its mix of population density and agricultural productivity. Bangladesh, for example, has one of the world’s highest population densities, with 1,078 persons per sq km. A large majority of the people of Bangladesh engage in low-productivity manual farming, which contributes to the country’s extremely high level of poverty. However, some of the smaller countries in Western Europe, such as The Netherlands and Belgium, have high population densities as well. But these countries practice mechanized farming and are involved in high-tech and small industrialization; therefore have high standards of living.

If we claim that such initiative by NAPEP cannot reduce the abject poverty in Nigeria. Then what needs to be done? It is embracing of holistic and reductionistic approaches in tackling developmental issues-this is the time Nigeria needs both approaches– approaches that will tackle poverty by uplifting individual and at the same time develops systems and processes, while also strengthening the structures on ground. For example, in recent decades, some nations have become fairly wealthy by developing their economies with small scale industries, simple technologies and more importantly, by creating employment opportunities for their citizens through education, training and reliable micro-finance systems. Nigerian can benchmark such ideas.

The hallmark of poverty in Nigeria is the high level of unemployment. If Nigeria can tackle the high rate of unemployment in the country; then one of the most important ways to smoothen the path for prosperity in the land has been found- thus, the goals of vision 20:2020 can be achieved easily. We must acknowledge that even in developed countries, unemployment rates may be high and availability of employment also tends to fluctuate, creating periods of high joblessness. Nigeria being a country with high population, an unemployment level of only a few percentage means that millions of working-age people will be unemployed and unable to earn an adequate income. This should be an issue of great concern to the political leaders and managers of Nigeria’s economy.

Nigeria can create productive employment for its millions of unemployed citizens and those engaged in unproductive-manual jobs through various means. The country has artisans such as shoemakers, fashion-designers, carpenters, goldsmiths, woodcrafters, welders and technicians, etc., who have the skills but lack the resources to setup productive and sustainable businesses. Offering assistance to such group of people will have huge impact on the country’s economy. For example, Turkey, Morocco and Iran are enjoying huge foreign exchange from handmade carpets made by small firms owned by individuals living in urban, semi urban and rural areas of these countries.

Equally, there are thousands of graduates in Nigeria who never dream of a pay-job either from the government or private sector, but their zeal is to be entrepreneurs. Government can assist such group of young people. The CBN’s N500bn intervention fund designed to boost the operational capacities in the manufacturing, small and medium enterprises and the power sectors as well as the recently announced Creative Industry Fund by President Goodluck Jonathan are good steps toward the empowerment of the citizens. The accessibility of such funds should be flexible and part of it should be used in developing many sector including the movie, music, I.T. sport, advertising, farming and technology-invention industries. For instance, there are hundreds of illegal solid minerals mine fields in Nigeria; government can organize the people who engage in such activities into smaller organized firms. This will create legitimate wealth and employment, in addition to more revenue for the government.

We shouldn’t forget the fact that, it is a little bit difficult to determine the poverty threshold of Nigeria because of many factors including lack of reliable data and statistics; however, there is general agreement among Nigerians that the hallmark of absolute poverty in the country is the high level of unemployment that cut across the nation. If the level of unemployment can be reduced by half of its current standing, Nigeria’s vision 20:2020 will be achieved. In fact, the country will be the fifth member of the BRICs. This thought should be close to the hearts of Nigerian leaders. They should start dreaming with the people on the streets, because it is time to reduce poverty in Nigeria.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Adamawa Politics and Its New Entrants

The crisis-ridden and complex Adamawa political environment is witnessing an influx of new entrants. The State’s political environment is already jam-packed with diverse political and social interests, in addition to lots of political gladiators, who are engaged in high-wired politics of intrigues.

These new entrants of Adamawa politics are aware that to attain relevance in the system, they must align with a particular political bloc. Apart from identifying with a particular bloc, the platform they intend to contest on must also reflect the views and aspirations of their constituencies. This is a knotty issue they have to tackle, because any slight mistake would cost them a great political fortune.

More than 95% of the new entrants to Adamawa politics are people seeking political offices. And one good thing about it is that quite are few of them are professionals and some of them are young. Notable among them are Nuhu Ribadu the former EFCC helmsman, Dr. Aliyu Idi Hong, the current Minister of State Foreign Affairs, Zira Maigadi, the former Managing Director of one of the country’s biggest oil companies, Dr. Tukur Liman an academician and a seasoned technocrat, Aisha Dahiru Ahmed, the Chief Executive of Binani Group and host of others. As professionals in their own fields, these individuals are caught between what they think politics is and what obtains in the real life situation. They will, without doubt, discover that politics is indeed as described by pundits- beyond anyone’s imaginations.

For them to succeed, they have to play it as technocrats as well as borrow from the ways of educated and non educated career politicians. That is, they have to combine their excellent leadership skills, education and charisma with Law Number 25 of the 48 laws of power; i.e. re-creating themselves through forging a new identity that commands attention from politicians.They must also be able to convince the public that they have come to the public sector with new ideology and vigour through generation of feasible ideas that would trigger development, eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals; bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services, ranging from healthcare, agriculture, social programs, critical infrastructure and the revitalization of the education system.

The new entrants to Adamawa politics have come at a time that the State’s political environment is highly polarised between three very strong blocs: the Nyako, Jibrin Amin and Atiku blocs, who are immersed in high-wired politics. This is of course a dicey situation and at the same time a big opportunity for the new entrants, depending on how they play their cards. It is dicey because at the end of the day there will be big losers and winners. It is also a good opportunity for them, if they can be proactive. For example, during the 1983 elections in the defunct Gongola State, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur won the governorship election by being politically smarter than his opponents. His Kontigi Movement was instrumental to his victory at the polls- Kontigi Movement was able to complement the major weaknesses of the then NPN. It is depressing that politics has so much been ‘commercialised’ to the extent that such truly political movements like the Bamanga Tukur’s Kontigi are no longer relevant in Adamawa politics. However, those seeking political offices in Adamawa, especially the governorship position, have an opportunity at hand. If any of them can endure the painstaking task of forming a political movement which will bring together interest from Kautal Pulaka, the Fulani socio-cultural-economic organization and Adamawa Minority Forum. The ride to government House, Yola will be very easy. This is because there are cracks in the system which requires honest amends. Another reason is, Kautal Pulaka, controls over 80% of Adamawa economy and constitutes 30% of Adamawa population, and Adamawa minority ethnic groups collectively constitutes nearly 70% of the state’s population. For hundreds of years these two groups have built a strong political, cultural and social relationship with each other.

For several decades, from the former Gongola State to the present Adamawa State, ‘old school’ politicians have dominated the political environment of the state. Despite the present ‘good shows’ displayed by the new entrants, the old politicians seem to have dominated the contest for the governorship position, and each one of them is out with sophisticated game plan. For example, Governor Nyako is heavily relying on incumbency and his stronghold in the PDP structures. Another of Nyako’s game plan was the drafting of his Chief of Staff and his Commissioner of Local Government into the governorship race. Senator Jibrin Amin is playing his game as professor of medicine- he is studying various options, thus Dr. Aliyu Idi Hong candidacy is part of his game. Others seeking the PDP ticket are General Buba Marwa. Marwa has all the credentials but he has been far away from local politics. Awwla Tukur will ride on his father’s back. Atiku Abubakar’s tactics is that of wait then pull from any angle; this is because he has not openly showed his preference. However, pundits are of the opinion that Adamu Mu’azu’s taking over of Labour Party structures in Adamawa State is part of Atiku’s strategy. The story is same in other political parties- in the ACN; three groups will size up one another. Despite the fact that former Governor Boni Haruna has not publicly identified with the party nor resigned from the PDP, those who served in his administration are very strong in the party, the second group is Nuhu Ribadu’s while the third is Dr. Tukur Liman’s. In the ANPP, it will be either former Minister of State Defence Abdurrahman Adamu or anyone he endorses.

As the 2011 elections approach, old times politicians will play politics as they knew it, while the new entrants to Adamawa politics will rely on the strong public endorsement of their entrance into the game. For instance, through grassroots approach, Aisha Dahiru Ahmed who is seeking to be a member in the House of Representatives has succeeded in winning the hearts of her constituency- the politically complex and conservative Yola-North, Yola-South and Girei Federal constituency. If election is to be held today, she will win with a landslide.

One interesting thing about politics is, it is full of so many intrigues, each day, one finds some new and amazing thing about it. Both the old and new politicians in Adamawa State are for sure finding mindboggling things especially at these times that politicking in the State is like walking on burbles- it may burst at any time.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Yet, Another Education Summit

Nigeria has for the several years organised so many summits, seminars and conferences. The country has formulated quite a number of education policies, collected voluminous proposals and blueprints from both local and international experts, on how to salvage the education sector. Yet the problems in the education sector persist.

Does it mean that all those past efforts were not in the right direction? And the ongoing National Stakeholders Summit on "Reclamation, Restoration and Sustenance of Quality and Ethics in Education in Nigeria" will not produce a feasible blueprint for Nigeria’s education sector? Of course not, what was missing was the leadership’s political will, and the right team to push the right button

Nigeria is witnessing systems deterioration. The most worrying and one that requires urgent, systematic and systemic attention, is the education sector. The recent mass failure at the senior secondary school examinations organized by both West African Examinations Council (WAEC) and National Examination Council (NECO) are signals of the continuing troubles in the education sector.

The confusion, lack of stability and misdirection in the Nigerian education sector has reached a stage that the sector needs a radical restructuring and galvanization composing of reforms similar to that of Soviet Union 1980’s Glasnost and Perestroika reforms and the 1947 European Recovery Program,- The Marshall Plan. One may sound as an alarmist; but we need such kind of reforms in order to further liberalize the sector, recreate and rebuild its hitherto strong foundation and bring new ideas and thinking to policy planning and effective management of the sector. President Goodluck Jonathan has hinted that the Federal Government would review the strict guidelines of the special intervention funds like the Universal Basic Education (UBE) and the Education Trust Funds (ETF), to attain faster delivery of education at the basic levels. Will that be enough? Certainly no. Nigeria needs massive intervention in the education sector. Though, this not a call for the usual way Nigerian government does things. We really need a shift in the way our schools are run. And we have to put up a system that will provide adequate funding and help in improving the standard and quality of both teachers and students; a system that will completely aid in shifting away from the tradition- where government is the provider, administrator, monitor and assessor of how fund are utilized. Though, he who pays the piper calls the tune.

Nigeria as a nation has three options on how to breathe life into the education sector: first is outright government shouldering of the management of the sector; the second is leaving everything to the private sector; while the third option is opting for Public Private Partnership.

The first option, i.e. outright government shouldering the management of the education sector seems to have failed, largely due to corruption and mismanagement, because the system has worked before. During the 50’s 60’s and even early 70’s the Nigerian education system has clothed, fed, educated and provided readily available jobs for the teaming educated Nigerians. However, the irony is; those who had benefited from the system, are the ones who destroyed it.

The second option i.e. leaving everything to private sector hands, should not be in anybody’s mine, as it would be detrimental to the progress of Nigeria. This is because once the education sector is left to the mercy of private hands; many Nigerian children would be shut-out of school, since majority of Nigerians cannot afford the fees charged by privately owned educational institution. Thus the nation would miss the opportunity of developing the best of her human capital.

Looking at the present state of administration of our education system, it seems private sector participation in the sector is inevitable. This writer is a strong advocate of private sector greater participation in managing our public schools; but not a ‘bulldozer’ kind of participation, where government will entirely surrender these schools to private entrepreneurs- thus, students, teachers and parents would be at the mercy of private hands. What we need is, a ‘measured’ Public Private Partnership, where government should build new schools, equip old ones. Then take a benchmark from a well-run private school on what it costs per student-head in running a school; then a gradual entrusting of public schools to private sector, where government provides the funds, taking into cognizance the cost per student; as it is in private schools, while the private sector manages it especially in the area of infrastructures maintenance, provision of teaching tools, management of training programmes for teachers - hence, our educational system will be run efficiently, new sustainable jobs will be created and government will be relieved from the burden of ‘ carrying the camel and its loads’. This suggestion may appear odd. However, an honest assessment of the budgetary spending per student head by the three tiers of government will for sure show that the amount spent by the government per student head exceeds the one the best schools in Nigeria charge per student head.

In his opening remarks at the summit, President Goodluck Jonathan said: “Nigeria’s educational system needs a rebirth for better delivery of education in the basic, secondary and tertiary institutions across the country”. Most Nigerians are of the opinion that the rebirth should be systematic as well as systemic. It has to cover primary, secondary and tertiary schools, at the same give emphasis to prioritization of need. And all the three tiers of government as well as the private sector should participate effectively and efficiently with well-spelled roles to be played by each

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Can Jonathan Win PDP’s primaries?

President Goodluck Jonathan



“I Goodluck Ebele Jonathan by the grace of God hereby offer myself and my services to the Nigerian people as a candidate for the office of President in the forth coming 2011 elections.” It is now official. President Goodluck Jonathan will run. So politicking now begins in full glare. In politics- Nigerian politics so to speak, the basic rule is; most things are to be enshrouded in secrecy, while few in openness. Today, the streets of Nigeria are chock-full with discussions on who will clinch the presidential ticket of the ruling party- the PDP. While on the other hand, politicians are secretly involve in intensive intrigues, horse-trading and scheming. These are signs that the PDP presidential primary will be interesting; full of tricky manoeuvres, and a keenly contested party primary similar to the 1999 PDP presidential primaries and the 1992 staggered presidential primaries of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC) which were in the end cancelled by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida.

Being the President of Nigeria, the circumstance that led to his emergence as the President as well as his party’s controversial in-house policy of power rotation between the North and South has put President Goodluck Jonathan in the eyes of political pundits; politicians and ordinary Nigerians. Dr. Goodluck has now formally declared his intention to contest for the 2011 presidential election. Winning the PDP primaries is the first hurdle for him to scale in his quest to return to the seat of presidential power. This is very crucial, because anyone aspiring to be the President of Nigeria must have a party platform to contest on. The big question is; will Jonathan win the PDP presidential primaries?

Dr Goodluck will slug it out with the former military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Bukola Saraki and probably Gen. Aliyu Gusau and a host of others. IBB and Atiku, as they are popularly called, appear to be the strongest of Jonathan’s opponents. But can Jonathan defeat them in the PDP primaries? President Jonathan’s supporters have strong confidence in his ability to rout his two strong opponents. His Special Adviser on National Assembly Matters, Senator Mohammed Abba-Aji, in a telephone interview with The Punch newspaper of August 30, 2010, said that former military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and ex-Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, would lose the presidential primary of the PDP. Equally, both IBB’s and Atiku’s camps have shown great confidence in winning the primaries. Atiku was recently quoted to have said: “The deal I have with IBB is that when this has been resolved (their interests), we will enter into a room and then, one person would emerge.” - hmmm, Nigerian politics is exciting.

Whichever way or sequence the PDP conducts her primaries; staggered or not, any aspirant who is serious about winning the party’s presidential ticket must work painstakingly to win the support of the State Governors and the bigwig politicians, in addition to putting in place a formidable political network that is extremely proficient in the art of reaching concession, honest engagement and collective bargaining. Moreover, the talent of sheer politicking is also required. The trio of Atiku, IBB, Jonathan and other contestants have the capacity to achieve the aforementioned, but Jonathan has a very vital advantage that none of the other aspirants has- the incumbency advantage.

Challenging and unseating a sitting President during his party’s primaries is a painstaking job, indeed very difficult. Incumbents traditionally win their party's nomination. The incumbent anywhere in the world is always the man to beat. In fact, the primaries are usually a walkover for him. He can always swing delegates’ votes with decisions which may appear ordinary.

It will be a political suicide for a political party to change its flag bearer who is already occupying the office. For instance, the PDP will not just throw away the many advantages Jonathan’s candidacy will offer the party. As the President, Jonathan is privileged to preside over national events and decision making, this frequently gives him favourable publicity, more name recognition and often receive more exposure in the media than those challenging him. Jonathan will have easier access to campaign funds as well as have structural advantages over his challengers during election. In addition to other advantages he has, the timing of the primaries may be determined by the PDP officials who naturally, will support him.

Jonathan is running as a symbol of generational shift and he is ‘untainted’ by any political or economic scandal. PDP delegates will compare and contrast the candidates' qualifications, issues, positions and personal characteristics in a comparatively clear-cut way. Jonathan will get his party delegates’ endorsement because the delegates have not been provided with a compelling reason to vote for someone else. Though, there exist situations in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent, situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven himself not worthy of office during his tenure and the challengers demonstrate this fact. Jonathan is very lucky to have escaped such a scenario.

The odds seem to be so much in favour of Jonathan. Why? Researchers of western democracies, the U.S. in particular, have identified several factors which make sitting incumbents hard to beat and why most incumbents who run for re-election get re-elected. The research showed that since World War II, 90% of incumbents who ran for re-election were successful. The research further showed that the most important factors that help incumbents include: the “perks” of office, time, visibility, campaign organisation and finance, a highly organized staff, the power of the presidential office and facilities, the advantage of taking actions that are carefully timed to maximize political advantage and use of policies or decisions to display leadership as Commander-in-Chief.

The PDP presidential primaries would fundamentally be like a referendum on Jonathan. The PDP delegates will evaluate whether his challengers are acceptable alternatives. Political pundits are of the view that quality challengers do not typically choose to run when there is little chance and incumbents who are vulnerable do not always choose to run for re-election. In political party primaries involving an incumbent and challengers, the deck is always somehow stacked against the challengers. As the PDP presidential primary approaches, President Goodluck Jonathan appears to be like a moving train. You can’t stop a moving train!

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

A 3-Way Development for Nigeria

Olusegun Aganga
Nigeria's Minister of Finance

                                                                                       
Developed and emerging economies transited through three stages of development: agrarian, industrial and information. Their transition through these stages of development wasn’t easy, as they made painful sacrifices, undertook painstaking researches and witnessed difficult moments. Must Nigeria go through the aforementioned systematic stages of development for many years for her to attain the position of a developed or a truly an emerging economy? Certainly, no. Leaders who shaped their countries and gave their people voice and direction, did so by putting in place a plan to serve as alternative model for their nation’s economic growth. For instance, China has emerged as a manufacturing and trading powerhouse in the world because of Chairman Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ which was designed as an alternative to the Soviet model of governance.


Nigeria has for long-time been battling with political, social and institutional obstacles to her development despite the country’s huge oil wealth and human capital. Time has come for Nigeria’s political class to design for the country a new development model that will focus on promoting economic growth, structural changes and improving the potential of Nigeria’s human capital through both public and private channels.

Nigeria’s leaders, policy formulators and implementers should adopt a 3-way development model, whereby the country simultaneously develops her agricultural sector, small scale industries and human capital. That is, putting in place a process through which the country’s economy are transformed over define period, by the reinvigoration of the agricultural sector, propelling small scale industrialisation and placing the country in a position so that her citizens can take advantage of the vast opportunities the world economy offers. The 3-way development model proposes that Nigeria benchmarked China’s Chairman Mao’s model of agriculturalisation, industrialization, and collectivization. But how will a democratic and heterogeneous Nigeria achieve it?

Nigeria’s development efforts placed emphasis on urban development at the expense of rural development which leads to a substantial rise in inequality between Nigerians. For Nigeria to achieve sustainable rural development, the country has to tie its rural development strategy to agriculture. Notwithstanding the fact that most of Nigeria’s economic activities, especially in the agricultural sector are not part of the measured financial transactions, agriculture can play a role in Nigeria’s GDP per capita. This writer once advocated for a new agricultural scheme that encourages an all inclusive participatory technique- where youth, communities, local councils, states, the federal government and the private sector (financial institutions and private investors) will be major participants. Financial institutions and private investors shall be the financiers; governments at all levels will have well-defined roles, while the youths and small scale farmers shall be the primary targets. In addition, the scheme should be designed to be in four categories- ‘export oriented’, ‘large’, ‘medium’ and ‘small’ scales, along with a well-defined timeframe for government complete handoff from the scheme.

The federal government would be the guarantor of fund to be provided by financial institutions or private investors. This will be done through the issuance of federal government bonds. The scheme should work in such a way that local councils and state government would provide lands and other logistics. The private investors or financial institutions who will participate in the scheme are not to give money directly to the government in order to receive the bond-certificate, but it would be a kind of batter arrangement; where the investors; either financial institutions or private individuals would setup farms, in addition to putting in place all structures required in a standard farm. Afterwards, a bond certificate equivalent to the cost which is to be determined by both parties and NGO’s will be issued to them. This will completely eliminate corruption which is the main course of failure of most good programmes in Nigeria. To encourage investors to participate in the scheme, before the maturity of the bond, the investor would take a prescribed stake, between 5% and 10% in any of the farms they setup. They will also assist in monitoring progress on the farm. On top of being an added value to the investors, since, in addition to the interests they will get from their bond when it is redeemed, this will also give them rights to shares from the farms’ profit. However, after the maturity of the bond, their stakes in the farm would be transferred to the host communities.

Though Industrialisation entailed both technology and profound social development, Nigeria can develop a small scale industrialisation programme with systemic as well as systematic measures to steer resources into the productive process. This proposed 3-way development model strongly ties Nigeria’s small scale industrialisation to its agricultural output and to the much-talked ‘waste to wealth’ efforts, as Nigeria has a total area of 910,768 km² of arable land, 13,000 km² water; and twenty-one (21) agricultural institutions, in addition to generation millions of tons of recyclable wastes every day. This will help in sustaining and developing the agricultural sector, boost export of finished or semi-finished goods as well as reduce unnecessary importation. But what kind of small scale industrialisation Nigeria should embrace?

Looking around us we see Asian products, such as razor blades, pine needles, envelopes, keys and padlocks, cotton buds, toys, shoelaces, safety matches umbrellas, doormats, office square clips, treasury tags, table flags, carpets etc in our markets. Most of these items are produced from agricultural outputs and recyclables wastes by small industries setup with small amount of capital and powered by solar panels or small wind turbines. Most of these industries are owned and run by a family of two or three in Shanghai, Taipei, Manila or Bombay. For example, a part of the Ikorodu-Shagamu road axis of Lagos State is occupied by Indians, busy building steel mills industry, utilising raw materials sourced from steels generated by Nigerians as waste.

The Bank of Industry, the Central bank of Nigeria, NAPEP and the ministry of commerce and industry should ensure that Nigerian small-scale industries and interested individuals benefit from the recently released intervention funds. And, instead of giving money to all loan beneficiaries, government can setup small industries and handover the industries to some of them.

Factors such as considerable advancements in science and technology, establishment of broadly-based government and strengthening of institutions along with issues ranging from social to cultural, economic policies to institution development, geographic location to opportunities all led to exceptional economic development for some countries. Besides, human capital development has played a vital role that has led to significant socio-economic progress and improvement in the lives of large number of people in many countries, noteworthy is the rapid and long sustainable high growth performances of East Asian economies. Nigeria can utilise her human capital for economic development. Though, economists are of the view that, for human capital to spawn a perceptible impact on economic development, a nation needs to have a minimum of at least 70 per cent literate population. Nigerians are a very creative and dynamic people. Despite the absence of strong formal support, Nigerians have made sport, music, art and the film industries promising. Nigerian government can take advantage of this and use these industries to create jobs and generate wealth, by hunting for top quality talented Nigerians, provide them with world–class training by assisting private entrepreneurs to establish well-equipped record companies, modern film studios, sport development enterprises and remove every obstacle that hampers the flourishing of these industries. Information technology (I.T.) and software are also today major sources of foreign exchange for most emerging economies. India is leveraging from its massive investment in I.T. and software development. Nigeria’s human capital has the potentials to be major exporters of I.T. professionals.

China owes her development to Chairman Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ of agriculturalisation, industrialisation, and collectivisation. Nigeria’s can benchmark Chairman Mao’s idea through agriculturalisation, small scale industrialisation and human capital development. Though, it took China decades to start reaping the benefits of the ‘Great Leap Forward’. Nigeria can reap from the proposed model within five to ten years, because the world today is very different from the one that was, some decades ago. All that the country needs are there, except that person that would push the right button- our Chairman Mao, so to speak.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980                                 

10 Ways Jonathan Can Win the North Over

The race to 2011 presidential election is becoming hotter with high-wired politics, intrigues, manoeuvring and horse-trading at the peak. And, if push comes to shove, ‘political konfo’ may come into play. The three principal actors are: the North, President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP.

President Goodluck Jonathan had gone through a long journey via the ‘doctrine of necessity’ to be the Acting President and by the ‘doctrine of reality’ to be the President of Nigeria. The President has started another knotty political-journey on a pot-hole-riddled-road with many sharp, sloppy and hilly bends.

The President has to apply the techniques of a patient driver. He has to be alert; learn to slow down and not tailgate. This is logical, because it will give him the ample time to get around ‘rickety’ and slow moving vehicle as well as be able to observe road signs, potholes, open car doors and cars coming towards him . Dr. Goodluck has to be wary of some passengers in his vehicle, they may be obstructive; he has to also strictly observe lane ends signs; give big trucks some rooms and shouldn’t try to beat trains- they can’t stop.

If President Goodluck adheres strictly to these driving tips, he will get through the rough political road effortlessly. However, if the President chooses to be a reckless driver, his vehicle will plunge from the start.

President Goodluck has three groups to face in the north: the political elites; the Talakawas and a unique emerging group of advocates of new approach to north’s political and development direction.

President Goodluck can use ten ways to persuade these three groups to support his presidential ambition. Of these ten ways, he can use four development policies to talk into the masses, one ‘politico-developmental’ agenda to convince the unique emerging group and whopping five political games to persuade the northern political elites.

President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself in a situation that both politics and policies may determine his political future. To see him through, he has to take careful and intelligent political steps. To gain the support of the Talakawas of the north, he has to design speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor; introduce agricultural programs that will reach real farmers as well as make them feel ownership and involvement in the programs; implement an education policy that will tackle the Almajiri phenomenon through workable integration of Quranic schools with formal schools and promotion of girl child education; and above all, be a fair leader. The leadership in the north has woefully failed in these regards. If President Goodluck can show a little sign of providing practical solutions to problems in these areas, the Talakawas of the north will definitely give him their votes. On the election day; he can just sit and cross his legs, sip a steaming cup of tea prepared by madam first lady. This is because the north has never voted based on regional or ethnic sentiments; but on candidates’ personal integrity and ability to free the people from the prison of poverty. The 1979; 1983; 1992 and 1999 elections were clear examples.

There is a group of young educated people springing in the north; this group see the hullaballoo about power rotation between the north and south, as undemocratic and also an offshoot of the never-ending ploy by the Nigerian political elites to continue to hold on to power. Moreover, they are strongly advocating a paradigm shift in the north’s development and political direction in such a way that the region will only vote for a leader with a vision; someone who listens to new ideas; accept new ways of doing things, as well as has a clear, vivid picture of what success looks like and how to achieve it. Not someone who hides behind regionalism to consolidate on cronyism and ‘stockpiles’ his pocket. The old days are gone, so to speak! President Goodluck can win the heart of this group if he can move with a speed commensurate with their expectations; in bringing new thinking and synergy to the public sector through feasible ideas that would trigger development in all spheres of the Nigerian economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities rather than guns, axes, bows and arrows; fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services to Nigerians, ranging from health and social programs, defence, electricity, police protection, maintain a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the reinvigoration of the education system, build small scale industries and farms, roads construction and human capital development. These groups of young educated northerners are looking for a Nigerian that will lead Nigeria like a CEO; not someone who will bombard their ears with gobbledygook.

The biggest hurdle President Goodluck Jonathan has to cross is winning his party’s presidential ticket. And the truth is, winning the hearts of the above mentioned two groups, is just a scratch on the back when it comes to winning the PDP’s ticket. Support from the Nigerian bigwig politicians is very paramount. As earlier mentioned, for President Goodluck to win over northern political elites, he can use five ways to do so. There are five groups of political elites in the north: the 19 northern governors; those seeking elective offices; career politicians; traditional and religious class as well as those who want to be President. Let’s look at the five political-games that the President can use to persuade these groups.

The process of seeking political offices in the north was built on the principle and foundation of negotiations. Politics, they say, is all about give and take. This is the first of the five ways President Goodluck can use to persuade the northern political elites, especially the 19 northern governors.

Immediately after the death of late President Umaru Yar’Adua, political gladiators in the north became busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2011 presidential election. Strategising and building formidable political network is technique number two, which is very crucial for President Goodluck in winning over the political elites in the north, especially the traditional and religious class.

As earlier mentioned, there are career politicians among the category of the north political elites. This group have started what they know best- politicking, by forming pro and anti Jonathan groups and associations in addition to shouting their voices at any given opportunity. They are the easiest group to be won over. The President knows better than anybody on how to win over this group- political patronage is their price.

There is strong feeling within another category of the political class in the north that the region must hold on to power till 2015 based on the unwritten power rotation agreement. Even some people outside the north hold such view. Professor Tam David West in his interview with The Spectator Newspaper of Saturday, July 10-July 16, 2010, page 12-13, he said: “Jonathan should honourably obey what he signed”. The Prof. went further and said that he will not support a southern President by becoming President on the platform of a Northern President. Most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the north and those supporting them, that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the south to complete their eight years in power, the same north fielded candidates to seek the office of the President. For President Goodluck to win the support of this group; concession, honest engagement and collective bargaining are his only keys.

The fifth technique for President Goodluck Jonathan to use to win over the political elites in the north is the most interesting one; and the most fascinating, it’s Dr. Goodluck’s only weapon in facing the most difficult and formidable group- those also aspiring to the President. The technique is nothing but sheer high-wired politics full of scheming, manoeuvres and horse-trading. In dealing with this group, President Goodluck should always put in his mind that any slight error will be a huge political suicide, because Nigerian politics is all about secrecy and openness. He shouldn’t also forget that sometimes one needs more than just good luck, because the future is not something that happens; it is something that you make happen.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980