Adamawa: After the Elections, What Next?

Gov. Nyako

Politics, some people say, is a dirty and tricky business. But it is a field full of excitements- some of it is comical; some of it is scary; while some of it is beyond one’s imagination. The governorship elections in Adamwa State has come and gone, but the intense political manoeuvres and heat that preceded the elections has and would continue to determine the direction of the state’s politics in many ways.

How the Election Was Won and Lost

The February 4th 2012, Adamawa Governorship Elections results proved bookmakers right- Admiral Murtala Nyako won. Nyako won the election because of many reasons- the absence of a united and formidable opposition; the polarisation of the state along geographic, ethnic and faith lines; the influence of his political appointees, support from some key political bigwigs in the state and sheer luck.

The opposition came to the election highly disunited, and made some costly political miscalculations. In terms of number of votes, the main opposition parties ACN and CPC have clearly defeated Nyako. They garnered 355,300 votes which is 54% of the total votes cast, while Nyako got the remaining 302,953, i.e. 46%. One thing clear is, most of the votes got by each candidate were due to some reasons. Nyako won in mainly Hausa/Fulani dominated communities. His political appointees and handlers were instrumental in his getting votes from  some minority communities who happen not to be in full support of Nyako. Some people voted for Nyako just because they are PDP supporters, but they don’t admire Nyako as a person, while some people voted for PDP just because they belong to same ethnic group or faith with Nyako, but they are strong PDP antagonists. Incumbency and support from the centre also helped Nyako.

The ACN did very well in the election. The PDP took away victory from the ACN with just a margin of 61,930 votes. The ACN committed serious mistakes, missteps and plain misses that caused it the election: its leaders were carried away by the signs of massive support the party enjoys from the minority dominated areas of Adamawa state, but they failed to extend the ‘hand of friendship’ to the Hausa/Fulani areas. The ACN became a victim of ‘You won't get what you don't ask for’, thus the PDP took advantage and defeated the ACN with wide margin in Fofure, Girei, Madagali, Maiha, Mayo Belwa, Yola-North and Yola-South local government areas. The Adamawa Unity Forum (AUF) - a sort of minority ethnic group socio-political organisation; became an albatross to the party- AUF’s actions and inactions coloured ACN’s struggle to wrest power from Nyako as a struggle against the Hausa/Fulani. The ACN leadership is to be blamed for forgetting one essential political strategy which is: look forward, reason backward-. Had the ACN massively campaigned in the Hausa/Fulani dominated areas, it could have been game-over for Nyako. The ACN also forgot that election day is a turnout game; they didn’t make last minute effort to get their supporters to the polls. ‘Get-Out-the-Voters’ was a major tactic the PDP used to scoop vote in ACN strongholds. Another of ACN’s misstep was its failure to gather and utilize the type of political war chest needed to face a party like the PDP. What actually saved the ACN from what could have been political humiliation was former Governor Boni Haruna’s influence and that of his supporters and that of a section Adamawa people who feel the Nyako government has suppressed it.

Gen. Buba Marwa, the CPC candidate, on the other hand, played ‘Kick the Can Games.’ On the outside he appeared to be the good guy, while on the inside he tried to capitalise on the polarisation of the state between Hausa/Fulani and the minorities lines. It was believed that, Marwa contested with the brainwave that the heat generated by the polarisation of the state along geographic, ethnic and faith lines would work in his favour. ACN also employed this tactic, it however failed for both paties because they forgot that politics require consensus, engagement and give and take.

What Next For the Opposition?

The big problem facing opposition parties in Nigeria is, they do not present themselves as alternatives to the government. People simply see them as another group of people similar to those in power, waiting to grab power by all means. The opposition in Adamawa state needs to present themselves as alternatives that are relevant to the people’s day-to-day lives. To win, they need to have the confidence of the people; regardless of geography, ethnicity or faith.

The CPC in Adamawa state may become weaker and toothless- Marwa and his co-travellers may eventually leave the party to their old nest- the PDP. In addition, the party was built around the personality of one man- General Muhammadu Buhari- no Buhari, no vote for the party, so to speak.

The ACN has a bright future. Since the 2007 elections in Adamawa state, the party has been getting stronger by the day. However, it has mainly been benefiting from former Gov. Boni Haruna’s leadership of the party. This is because during his administration, he spread resources, development and appointments equally throughout the state. His government was truly a representative one.

The Road to 2015/2017

It is pretty too early to predict what shapes the politicking for 2015/2017 election will take, but one thing certain is, the dangerously heated political scenario generated by the politics of the February 4th 2012 governorship elections in Adamawa state; Nyako’s incumbency advantage; the Atiku Abubakar factor and the numerous political organisations springing-up will shape the paths for the road. Nyako may wish to have his anointed candidate as his successor; as any Governor will. But many of the bigwigs is his camp are believed to be nursing ambition to be Governor. Pundits’ opinion is, Abubakar Madawaki, the commissioner of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs who happens to be Nyako’s classmate and childhood friend is actively working underground to position himself for Governor. Senator Bello Tukur, with formidable political war chest and stealth tactics would be a candidate to beat; the seasoned lawyer and investment banker - Adamu Modibbo would have political experience and strong network as his weapon. Bala Ngillari, being the Deputy Governor is naturally expected to seek to succeed his boss, but he is keeping his cards closed to his chest. Chief Felix Tangwami, Nyako’s campaign coordinator is also a strong contender- he showed his political strength, acumen and capability during the February 4th, 2012 Governorship election. Other likely contenders with potentials are Senator Bindawa Jibrilla; Awwal Tukur, Mr. Kobis Ari Thimnu, the Secretary to the Adamawa State Government and, perhaps, a dark-horse may emerge- because in politics, things can change within a gleam of time or because of a trivial event. However, the road to 2015/2017 would be bumpy and complicated. It would witness blind ambitions, suppressing betrayals, unexpected cross-carpeting, disillusionment and huge political casualties.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

The North and Jonathan Presidency

Beginning from May 29, 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan has a new four year mandate as President of Nigeria. His declaration as President-elect by INEC propelled the historic April 17th, 2011, Talakwas revolt against today’s northern Nigerian elites, and violent protests that swept across some states of the region. The protests, which hoodlums and miscreants took advantage of, to kill innocent people and destroy properties, were senseless and regretful occurences that nearly spoilt the joy of the nation.

As a result of this situation, some questions are pertinent-were the protests against Jonathan in person? No they weren’t. Were they purely ethnic, religious or regional? No they weren’t. Were they because Buhari as a northerner was not declared President-elect? Equally they weren’t. Then, why the protests? They were protests triggered and aided by one monster: extreme-abject-poverty.

A great number of Nigerians live below poverty-line, but the poverty level in the north is disturbing-a level that has put the Talakawas in a desperate search for a messiah to free them from the prison of poverty.

Today, the Talakwas and the leadership of the north are no more on the same page. Thus, there is a strong conviction in the hearts of the Talakwas that any interest or individual being promoted by a certain group of the northern leadership, will only aggravate their anguish.

Whoever is the President of Nigeria, is a President for all. The political tradition in Nigeria is, the President, often relates with all sections of the country through their leaders. In case of the north, it is the political, traditional and the religious leaders. This is because, the northern Nigerian culture proposes that everyone accords unalloyed loyalty to these leaders.

The north has changed, the people’s thinking and aspirations have changed. Today, in the north, most of the leaders are no more on same pages with their followership. With this changed situation and the protests that trailed the declaration of Goodluck Jonathan as President-elect, there is a thorny, as well as a golden opportunity for Goodluck Jonathan. The thorny side is that, he has to give the north, a fresh development plan that is truly people-oriented, workable and credible. And trigger a political realignment that may be unpopular with some elites. In addition to this, he has to proffer an alternative education direction that would tackle the peculiar situation in the north. The present situation in the north is also a golden opportunity for President Goodluck Jonathan to show and tell the Talakawas in the region: hey! I have with me that ‘hope’ you see in Muhammadu Buhari. How would the Goodluck Jonathan’s Presidency achieve these? As earlier said, President Goodluck Jonathan should face the north by taking careful and intelligent political and policy steps.

The President has to design some speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor; introduce agricultural programs that will reach rural, small scale farmers and the youth, as well as, make them feel ownership of these programs.

There is a huge hole in the heart of northern Nigeria’s education system. Thus, the region’s education sector extremely needs restructuring and galvanizing similar to that of Soviet Union 1980’s glasnost and perestroika. So that there will be means of providing adequate funding; tackling the Almajiri phenomenon through workable integration of Quranic schools with formal schools and promotion of girl-child education.

The leadership in the north have woefully failed in freeing their Talakwas from poverty, illiteracy, and underdevelopment. If President Goodluck can demonstrate a little sign of providing practical solutions to these problems, the Talakawas of the north will definitely see in him the ‘Muhammadu Buhari’ they are searching for.

There is a strong urge in the north for a fresh socio-economic and political direction reminiscent of the old north- where; leadership is people oriented; ‘we’ and ‘they’ feelings never exist and life is simple and productive. How would President Goodluck Jonathan contribute to this, when a great number of the leadership in the region is no more revered by the people? Do we expect the President to sideline the political, traditional and religious leaders of the north? Certainly no. The President should employ both systematic and systemic approach- i.e. have in his mind that he has three groups to face in the north: the political elites; the Talakawas and a unique emerging group of educated young northerners who are advocating of a new approach.

The President should face the leadership of the region based on what they know best- the principle and foundation of negotiations and persuasion. It may be unpopular with the elites and may require strong political will. But President Goodluck should be bold enough to tell them- This time is for the Talakwas of the north- because ‘I told the world, I am one of them’ (the poor).

The general opinion in the north is, the region is in need of a paradigm shift in its development and political direction, in such a way that the region will welcome a Nigerian leader who listens to new ideas; accepts new ways of doing things; as well as has a clear and vivid picture of what success looks like and how to achieve it. Someone who can move with a speed commensurate with the expectations of Talakwas in bringing new thinking and synergy to the public sector through feasible ideas that will bring development in all spheres of north’s economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities; fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services , ranging from health and social programs, electricity, police protection, maintain a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the reinvigoration of the small scale industries, roads construction and human capital development.

The Talakwas of the north are just looking for a Nigerian that will lead Nigeria with honesty, firmness and free them from the prison of abject poverty; not someone who will hide behind regionalism to consolidate on cronyism and self enrichment. Jonathan can give the north such a leadership.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980. He blogs at www.zayyaddp.blogspot.com

Adamawa Politics and Its New Entrants

The crisis-ridden and complex Adamawa political environment is witnessing an influx of new entrants. The State’s political environment is already jam-packed with diverse political and social interests, in addition to lots of political gladiators, who are engaged in high-wired politics of intrigues.

These new entrants of Adamawa politics are aware that to attain relevance in the system, they must align with a particular political bloc. Apart from identifying with a particular bloc, the platform they intend to contest on must also reflect the views and aspirations of their constituencies. This is a knotty issue they have to tackle, because any slight mistake would cost them a great political fortune.

More than 95% of the new entrants to Adamawa politics are people seeking political offices. And one good thing about it is that quite are few of them are professionals and some of them are young. Notable among them are Nuhu Ribadu the former EFCC helmsman, Dr. Aliyu Idi Hong, the current Minister of State Foreign Affairs, Zira Maigadi, the former Managing Director of one of the country’s biggest oil companies, Dr. Tukur Liman an academician and a seasoned technocrat, Aisha Dahiru Ahmed, the Chief Executive of Binani Group and host of others. As professionals in their own fields, these individuals are caught between what they think politics is and what obtains in the real life situation. They will, without doubt, discover that politics is indeed as described by pundits- beyond anyone’s imaginations.

For them to succeed, they have to play it as technocrats as well as borrow from the ways of educated and non educated career politicians. That is, they have to combine their excellent leadership skills, education and charisma with Law Number 25 of the 48 laws of power; i.e. re-creating themselves through forging a new identity that commands attention from politicians.They must also be able to convince the public that they have come to the public sector with new ideology and vigour through generation of feasible ideas that would trigger development, eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals; bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services, ranging from healthcare, agriculture, social programs, critical infrastructure and the revitalization of the education system.

The new entrants to Adamawa politics have come at a time that the State’s political environment is highly polarised between three very strong blocs: the Nyako, Jibrin Amin and Atiku blocs, who are immersed in high-wired politics. This is of course a dicey situation and at the same time a big opportunity for the new entrants, depending on how they play their cards. It is dicey because at the end of the day there will be big losers and winners. It is also a good opportunity for them, if they can be proactive. For example, during the 1983 elections in the defunct Gongola State, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur won the governorship election by being politically smarter than his opponents. His Kontigi Movement was instrumental to his victory at the polls- Kontigi Movement was able to complement the major weaknesses of the then NPN. It is depressing that politics has so much been ‘commercialised’ to the extent that such truly political movements like the Bamanga Tukur’s Kontigi are no longer relevant in Adamawa politics. However, those seeking political offices in Adamawa, especially the governorship position, have an opportunity at hand. If any of them can endure the painstaking task of forming a political movement which will bring together interest from Kautal Pulaka, the Fulani socio-cultural-economic organization and Adamawa Minority Forum. The ride to government House, Yola will be very easy. This is because there are cracks in the system which requires honest amends. Another reason is, Kautal Pulaka, controls over 80% of Adamawa economy and constitutes 30% of Adamawa population, and Adamawa minority ethnic groups collectively constitutes nearly 70% of the state’s population. For hundreds of years these two groups have built a strong political, cultural and social relationship with each other.

For several decades, from the former Gongola State to the present Adamawa State, ‘old school’ politicians have dominated the political environment of the state. Despite the present ‘good shows’ displayed by the new entrants, the old politicians seem to have dominated the contest for the governorship position, and each one of them is out with sophisticated game plan. For example, Governor Nyako is heavily relying on incumbency and his stronghold in the PDP structures. Another of Nyako’s game plan was the drafting of his Chief of Staff and his Commissioner of Local Government into the governorship race. Senator Jibrin Amin is playing his game as professor of medicine- he is studying various options, thus Dr. Aliyu Idi Hong candidacy is part of his game. Others seeking the PDP ticket are General Buba Marwa. Marwa has all the credentials but he has been far away from local politics. Awwla Tukur will ride on his father’s back. Atiku Abubakar’s tactics is that of wait then pull from any angle; this is because he has not openly showed his preference. However, pundits are of the opinion that Adamu Mu’azu’s taking over of Labour Party structures in Adamawa State is part of Atiku’s strategy. The story is same in other political parties- in the ACN; three groups will size up one another. Despite the fact that former Governor Boni Haruna has not publicly identified with the party nor resigned from the PDP, those who served in his administration are very strong in the party, the second group is Nuhu Ribadu’s while the third is Dr. Tukur Liman’s. In the ANPP, it will be either former Minister of State Defence Abdurrahman Adamu or anyone he endorses.

As the 2011 elections approach, old times politicians will play politics as they knew it, while the new entrants to Adamawa politics will rely on the strong public endorsement of their entrance into the game. For instance, through grassroots approach, Aisha Dahiru Ahmed who is seeking to be a member in the House of Representatives has succeeded in winning the hearts of her constituency- the politically complex and conservative Yola-North, Yola-South and Girei Federal constituency. If election is to be held today, she will win with a landslide.

One interesting thing about politics is, it is full of so many intrigues, each day, one finds some new and amazing thing about it. Both the old and new politicians in Adamawa State are for sure finding mindboggling things especially at these times that politicking in the State is like walking on burbles- it may burst at any time.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Can Jonathan Win PDP’s primaries?

President Goodluck Jonathan



“I Goodluck Ebele Jonathan by the grace of God hereby offer myself and my services to the Nigerian people as a candidate for the office of President in the forth coming 2011 elections.” It is now official. President Goodluck Jonathan will run. So politicking now begins in full glare. In politics- Nigerian politics so to speak, the basic rule is; most things are to be enshrouded in secrecy, while few in openness. Today, the streets of Nigeria are chock-full with discussions on who will clinch the presidential ticket of the ruling party- the PDP. While on the other hand, politicians are secretly involve in intensive intrigues, horse-trading and scheming. These are signs that the PDP presidential primary will be interesting; full of tricky manoeuvres, and a keenly contested party primary similar to the 1999 PDP presidential primaries and the 1992 staggered presidential primaries of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC) which were in the end cancelled by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida.

Being the President of Nigeria, the circumstance that led to his emergence as the President as well as his party’s controversial in-house policy of power rotation between the North and South has put President Goodluck Jonathan in the eyes of political pundits; politicians and ordinary Nigerians. Dr. Goodluck has now formally declared his intention to contest for the 2011 presidential election. Winning the PDP primaries is the first hurdle for him to scale in his quest to return to the seat of presidential power. This is very crucial, because anyone aspiring to be the President of Nigeria must have a party platform to contest on. The big question is; will Jonathan win the PDP presidential primaries?

Dr Goodluck will slug it out with the former military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Bukola Saraki and probably Gen. Aliyu Gusau and a host of others. IBB and Atiku, as they are popularly called, appear to be the strongest of Jonathan’s opponents. But can Jonathan defeat them in the PDP primaries? President Jonathan’s supporters have strong confidence in his ability to rout his two strong opponents. His Special Adviser on National Assembly Matters, Senator Mohammed Abba-Aji, in a telephone interview with The Punch newspaper of August 30, 2010, said that former military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and ex-Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, would lose the presidential primary of the PDP. Equally, both IBB’s and Atiku’s camps have shown great confidence in winning the primaries. Atiku was recently quoted to have said: “The deal I have with IBB is that when this has been resolved (their interests), we will enter into a room and then, one person would emerge.” - hmmm, Nigerian politics is exciting.

Whichever way or sequence the PDP conducts her primaries; staggered or not, any aspirant who is serious about winning the party’s presidential ticket must work painstakingly to win the support of the State Governors and the bigwig politicians, in addition to putting in place a formidable political network that is extremely proficient in the art of reaching concession, honest engagement and collective bargaining. Moreover, the talent of sheer politicking is also required. The trio of Atiku, IBB, Jonathan and other contestants have the capacity to achieve the aforementioned, but Jonathan has a very vital advantage that none of the other aspirants has- the incumbency advantage.

Challenging and unseating a sitting President during his party’s primaries is a painstaking job, indeed very difficult. Incumbents traditionally win their party's nomination. The incumbent anywhere in the world is always the man to beat. In fact, the primaries are usually a walkover for him. He can always swing delegates’ votes with decisions which may appear ordinary.

It will be a political suicide for a political party to change its flag bearer who is already occupying the office. For instance, the PDP will not just throw away the many advantages Jonathan’s candidacy will offer the party. As the President, Jonathan is privileged to preside over national events and decision making, this frequently gives him favourable publicity, more name recognition and often receive more exposure in the media than those challenging him. Jonathan will have easier access to campaign funds as well as have structural advantages over his challengers during election. In addition to other advantages he has, the timing of the primaries may be determined by the PDP officials who naturally, will support him.

Jonathan is running as a symbol of generational shift and he is ‘untainted’ by any political or economic scandal. PDP delegates will compare and contrast the candidates' qualifications, issues, positions and personal characteristics in a comparatively clear-cut way. Jonathan will get his party delegates’ endorsement because the delegates have not been provided with a compelling reason to vote for someone else. Though, there exist situations in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent, situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven himself not worthy of office during his tenure and the challengers demonstrate this fact. Jonathan is very lucky to have escaped such a scenario.

The odds seem to be so much in favour of Jonathan. Why? Researchers of western democracies, the U.S. in particular, have identified several factors which make sitting incumbents hard to beat and why most incumbents who run for re-election get re-elected. The research showed that since World War II, 90% of incumbents who ran for re-election were successful. The research further showed that the most important factors that help incumbents include: the “perks” of office, time, visibility, campaign organisation and finance, a highly organized staff, the power of the presidential office and facilities, the advantage of taking actions that are carefully timed to maximize political advantage and use of policies or decisions to display leadership as Commander-in-Chief.

The PDP presidential primaries would fundamentally be like a referendum on Jonathan. The PDP delegates will evaluate whether his challengers are acceptable alternatives. Political pundits are of the view that quality challengers do not typically choose to run when there is little chance and incumbents who are vulnerable do not always choose to run for re-election. In political party primaries involving an incumbent and challengers, the deck is always somehow stacked against the challengers. As the PDP presidential primary approaches, President Goodluck Jonathan appears to be like a moving train. You can’t stop a moving train!

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

10 Ways Jonathan Can Win the North Over

The race to 2011 presidential election is becoming hotter with high-wired politics, intrigues, manoeuvring and horse-trading at the peak. And, if push comes to shove, ‘political konfo’ may come into play. The three principal actors are: the North, President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP.

President Goodluck Jonathan had gone through a long journey via the ‘doctrine of necessity’ to be the Acting President and by the ‘doctrine of reality’ to be the President of Nigeria. The President has started another knotty political-journey on a pot-hole-riddled-road with many sharp, sloppy and hilly bends.

The President has to apply the techniques of a patient driver. He has to be alert; learn to slow down and not tailgate. This is logical, because it will give him the ample time to get around ‘rickety’ and slow moving vehicle as well as be able to observe road signs, potholes, open car doors and cars coming towards him . Dr. Goodluck has to be wary of some passengers in his vehicle, they may be obstructive; he has to also strictly observe lane ends signs; give big trucks some rooms and shouldn’t try to beat trains- they can’t stop.

If President Goodluck adheres strictly to these driving tips, he will get through the rough political road effortlessly. However, if the President chooses to be a reckless driver, his vehicle will plunge from the start.

President Goodluck has three groups to face in the north: the political elites; the Talakawas and a unique emerging group of advocates of new approach to north’s political and development direction.

President Goodluck can use ten ways to persuade these three groups to support his presidential ambition. Of these ten ways, he can use four development policies to talk into the masses, one ‘politico-developmental’ agenda to convince the unique emerging group and whopping five political games to persuade the northern political elites.

President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself in a situation that both politics and policies may determine his political future. To see him through, he has to take careful and intelligent political steps. To gain the support of the Talakawas of the north, he has to design speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor; introduce agricultural programs that will reach real farmers as well as make them feel ownership and involvement in the programs; implement an education policy that will tackle the Almajiri phenomenon through workable integration of Quranic schools with formal schools and promotion of girl child education; and above all, be a fair leader. The leadership in the north has woefully failed in these regards. If President Goodluck can show a little sign of providing practical solutions to problems in these areas, the Talakawas of the north will definitely give him their votes. On the election day; he can just sit and cross his legs, sip a steaming cup of tea prepared by madam first lady. This is because the north has never voted based on regional or ethnic sentiments; but on candidates’ personal integrity and ability to free the people from the prison of poverty. The 1979; 1983; 1992 and 1999 elections were clear examples.

There is a group of young educated people springing in the north; this group see the hullaballoo about power rotation between the north and south, as undemocratic and also an offshoot of the never-ending ploy by the Nigerian political elites to continue to hold on to power. Moreover, they are strongly advocating a paradigm shift in the north’s development and political direction in such a way that the region will only vote for a leader with a vision; someone who listens to new ideas; accept new ways of doing things, as well as has a clear, vivid picture of what success looks like and how to achieve it. Not someone who hides behind regionalism to consolidate on cronyism and ‘stockpiles’ his pocket. The old days are gone, so to speak! President Goodluck can win the heart of this group if he can move with a speed commensurate with their expectations; in bringing new thinking and synergy to the public sector through feasible ideas that would trigger development in all spheres of the Nigerian economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities rather than guns, axes, bows and arrows; fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services to Nigerians, ranging from health and social programs, defence, electricity, police protection, maintain a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the reinvigoration of the education system, build small scale industries and farms, roads construction and human capital development. These groups of young educated northerners are looking for a Nigerian that will lead Nigeria like a CEO; not someone who will bombard their ears with gobbledygook.

The biggest hurdle President Goodluck Jonathan has to cross is winning his party’s presidential ticket. And the truth is, winning the hearts of the above mentioned two groups, is just a scratch on the back when it comes to winning the PDP’s ticket. Support from the Nigerian bigwig politicians is very paramount. As earlier mentioned, for President Goodluck to win over northern political elites, he can use five ways to do so. There are five groups of political elites in the north: the 19 northern governors; those seeking elective offices; career politicians; traditional and religious class as well as those who want to be President. Let’s look at the five political-games that the President can use to persuade these groups.

The process of seeking political offices in the north was built on the principle and foundation of negotiations. Politics, they say, is all about give and take. This is the first of the five ways President Goodluck can use to persuade the northern political elites, especially the 19 northern governors.

Immediately after the death of late President Umaru Yar’Adua, political gladiators in the north became busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2011 presidential election. Strategising and building formidable political network is technique number two, which is very crucial for President Goodluck in winning over the political elites in the north, especially the traditional and religious class.

As earlier mentioned, there are career politicians among the category of the north political elites. This group have started what they know best- politicking, by forming pro and anti Jonathan groups and associations in addition to shouting their voices at any given opportunity. They are the easiest group to be won over. The President knows better than anybody on how to win over this group- political patronage is their price.

There is strong feeling within another category of the political class in the north that the region must hold on to power till 2015 based on the unwritten power rotation agreement. Even some people outside the north hold such view. Professor Tam David West in his interview with The Spectator Newspaper of Saturday, July 10-July 16, 2010, page 12-13, he said: “Jonathan should honourably obey what he signed”. The Prof. went further and said that he will not support a southern President by becoming President on the platform of a Northern President. Most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the north and those supporting them, that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the south to complete their eight years in power, the same north fielded candidates to seek the office of the President. For President Goodluck to win the support of this group; concession, honest engagement and collective bargaining are his only keys.

The fifth technique for President Goodluck Jonathan to use to win over the political elites in the north is the most interesting one; and the most fascinating, it’s Dr. Goodluck’s only weapon in facing the most difficult and formidable group- those also aspiring to the President. The technique is nothing but sheer high-wired politics full of scheming, manoeuvres and horse-trading. In dealing with this group, President Goodluck should always put in his mind that any slight error will be a huge political suicide, because Nigerian politics is all about secrecy and openness. He shouldn’t also forget that sometimes one needs more than just good luck, because the future is not something that happens; it is something that you make happen.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

Appraising Adamawa MPs in the National Assembly

                                         

The 6th National Assembly will end in 2011. Politicians have started squabbling to get elected as members of the House Representatives or as Senators; those in Adamawa State are also not left out. Almost in all the federal constituencies in the state, there are scores of individual who have indicated their interests to contest either as Honourable Members of the House of Representatives or Distinguished Senators of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Students of politics are of the view that the political space in Adamawa is being crowded with so many candidates vying to be MPs, because the current members representing the state in both chambers of the National assembly have not performed to the expectation of Adamawa people; while political pundits are of the opinion that the combination of many factors is the reasons, whereas, on-the-street opinion on the sudden flare-up of interests by throngs of candidates in virtually all the federal constituencies in Adamawa reveals that the reasons for this is not farther from theory of the typical Nigerian politician- ‘it is my turn’.

Critics of Adamawa MPs have categorised them into various classes based on their performances: average; below average; poor and very poor. Almost all MPs at the lower chamber of the National Assembly have been under intense criticisms from many quarters, but those from Adamawa are in a class of their own. However, their supporters argue that, those criticising the MPs from Adamawa are merely hiding under the name of public censure to play politics.

Looking at the issue beyond politics, some important questions need to be answered: have Adamawa representatives in both the ‘red’ and ‘green’ chambers represented their constituencies and the nation outstandingly as they ought to have done? Will they have easy ride in their bid to return to the National Assembly? The answers are anybody’s guess.

Out of the nation’s 109 senators, Adamawa state has three: Grace Folashade Bent (PDP): Adamawa South, Jibril Aminu (PDP): Adamawa Central and Mohammed Mana (PDP): Adamawa North; while out of the 360 members of the House of Representatives, the state has 8 members: Abubakar Mahmud Wambai (PDP): representing Mubi North/Mubi South/Maiha, Aminu Hamman Ribadu (PDP): representing Fufore/Song, Anthony Madwatte (PDP): representing Demsa/Numan /Lamurde, Babale Martins (AC): representing Jada/Ganye/ Mayobelwa/Toungo federal constituency, Binta Masi Garba (PDP): Madagali/Michika, Emmanuel Bello (PDP):Gombi/ Hong, Jim Kwawo Audu(AC): Guyuk/Shelleng, and Sa’ad M.C. Tahir is representing Yola North/Yola South/Girei federal constituency

50 year old Senator Grace Folashade Bent was a beneficiary of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s ‘political largesse’ in Adamawa. Her performance in the red chambers in term of contributions on national issues when compared to her colleagues’, can be said to be excellent, while her zeal in the area of alleviation of poverty and the promotion of youth and women causes in her constituency is very good. However, with the unfolding political events in Adamawa state, she will have a difficult task in her bid to make a second return to the Senate. Her senatorial district will be an epicentre of hot politics, especially with the return of Atiku to PDP, who is also from the senatorial district. Painfully, despite her exceptional performance in the Senate, Senator Grace will face one of the mundane issues in the Nigeria politics- politics of ethnicity. Grace is of Yoruba extraction, she may face stiff opposition from Adamawa Minority Forum, in addition to two strong opponents: former President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, (NLC), Chief Pascal Bafyau and Alhaji Salisu Barata a two-time member of the House of Representatives. Though, she will have to heavily rely on her strong connection with the youth and women in her constituency.

Sen. Mohammed Mana, former Commander Brigade of Guards and former Military Administrator of Plateau State is representing Adamawa North in the upper chamber. Despite his vast military experience, his critics say his performance in the Senate has not reflected his experience in nation building; though his supporters are of the view that his performance is average. However, he has a hard way ahead of him, in his bid to return to the Senate, because there are formidable politicians showing interest in his seat- people like the oil and gas technocrat, Zira Maigida, who was the former Managing Director of African Petroleum Plc and Sahara Energy Group, other strong contenders are, Emmanuel Valhalla Tarihri, a commissioner in the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission , who was also the former commissioner of finance in Adamawa, Senator Paul Wanpana, PDP National vice chairman, NorthEast, Bindo Umaru Jibrilla, business tycoon and Esther Wallabai.

Sen. Jibril Muhammad Aminu is the only two-term senator from Adamawa; he is the oldest, most educated and controversial among the three senators representing Adamawa State. The Professor of Medicine, cum diplomat was the greatest beneficiary of the Obasanjo-Atiku political war, his critics say his performance in the 6th National Assembly wasn’t dodged and superb as it was in the 5th Assembly; they went on to say that he always hides in the name of ‘elder’ in the senate not to perform. However, it seems that Senator Aminu will have an easy ride back to the Senate, because there seems to be no strong contender that can match the professor politically as he controls an appreciable stake in the PDP.

On the other hand, the eight members representing Adamawa at the ‘green’ chambers of the National Assembly came to house by riding on the back of political bigwigs in the state. Their critics say their performance at the House of Representative is appalling - none of them can beat his chest to get his party’s ticket, except may be one.

Hon. Abubakar Mahmud Wambai, Madawakin Mubi, who started his career as a Grade III teacher, is representing Mubi North/Mubi South/Maiha constituency, he came to the House in the late 2009, riding on the support of Adamawa state government. Though an amateur; his critics says his start was not impressive- there is already a wide disconnection between him and his constituency. He will face a thorny journey in his quest to make a return, because those likely to contest for his seat are politically further-up-the- ladder than he is; people like Shuaibu Abubakar the present commissioner of Land and Survey, John Babani Elias, Abdulrahmna Kwacham and Shehu Iya Abubakar.

Hon. Aminu Hamman Ribadu, representing Fufore/Song constituency, is not new in politics, he was the chairman of Fufore Local Government and also SSA to former Gov. Boni Haruna. He came to the House through the support of former Deputy Gov. Bello Tukur. His critics say his performance is miscellaneous. The emerging political alignment in the state may be a disadvantage or an advantage to him, depending on where the pendulum swings to.

Demsa, Numan & Lamurde constituency is represented by a former Permanent Secretary in Adamawa Govt., Hon. Anthony Madwatte. Political pundits described him as a politician that has never gone through real political stress-test. This was attributed to the Numan-axis political style that operate a kind of one-way politics- once you get the support of the bigwigs, victory is assured. Hon. Madwatte has been an MP since 2003. His critics described his performance as below average. He will also face the challenges of the emerging political alignment in Adamawa; he can scale through if he plays his cards smartly.

Hon. Babale Martins and Hon. Jim Kwawo Audu are the only two MPs from Adamawa who came to the House on the platform of the Action Congress (AC). Hon. Martins is representing Jada/Ganye/Toungo/ Mayobelwa, while Hon. Kwawo is representing Guyuk/Shelleng constituency. Political pundits believe that Hon. Martins political fate will be determined squarely by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, while for Kwawo, despite the fact that he is the only member who has only WAEC certificate, is the only one that can stand on his own.

Hon. Binta Masi Garba is so far the only federal legislator to have contested elections in two states as a member of the House of Representatives, she was elected twice in Kaduna on the platform of the ANPP; she now represents Michika/Madagali Federal Constituency in Adamawa on the platform of the PDP. Her performance is average. Despite the fact that by 2011 she would have spent twelve years in the House, she will have to heavily rely on the magnanimity of political bigwigs. Though, Adamawa state needs her legislative experience, if the speculation that the former commissioner of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs, Saleh Ginjir is warming-up to contest the seat, it will be a nightmare for her.

Hon. Emmanuel Bello a graduate of Harvard Business School, came to the House without any public service experience. Observers described his performance as poor. His critics always argue that he didn’t win the PDP primaries for his seat. He rode on the back of General Haldu Hannaniya. His constituency, Gombi/Hong will also be hot spot, with diverse political interest, the Minister of State for foreign Affairs, Dr Aliyu Idi Hong is from that constituency. Hon. Bello’s chance of returning to the House is very slim, except if the political bigwigs hold his hands to help him cross the bridge.

Hon. Sa’ad M.C. Tahir is representing the complex and most cosmopolitan of all the eight federal constituencies- Yola North, Yola South and Girei. No one has ever won re-election in the constituency and the cosmopolitan people of the constituency always expect first rate performance from their MPs. Hon. Awwal Bamanga Tukur despite his outstanding performance from 1999-2003, lost his bid to make a return. Political pundits described Hon. Sa’ad’s performance as the most awful among his colleagues. The odds against him are enormous. There are already strong clarion calls to young people to contest for the seat, people like Aisha Dahiru Mohammed, the Chief Executive of Binani Group. If the lady agrees, Hon. Sa’ad’s legs will definitely be wobbling, because, Aisha appears to have overwhelming grassroots support, intimidating exposure and broad connections.

In 2007, the contest for seats in the National Assembly was a one-way affair in Adamawa State, but in 2011 it will be a tough contest; with political bigwigs- Atiku Abubakar, Jibril Amin and Gov. Nyako stretching the thread. For those aspiring to be MPs, it will be a difficult and very competitive contest. It will be a rat race, so to speak. Though the trouble with a rat race is that even if you win, you’re still a rat.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

Atiku, PDP and 2011

                                                           

Politics, as the saying goes, is really fascinating and very complex. It is the only permanent thing in life and most of the times its intricacies go beyond our imagination.  Nigerian politics, for instance, is always in perpetual alignment, realignment and horse-trading, while Nigerian politicians are often easily predictable and seldom difficult to predict.

It can be said that former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar’s plans to return to his former party, the PDP, was in the process for almost three years. In late 2008, Atiku’s posters in PDP’s emblems floated many streets of some states in the country, in particular Jimeta-Yola, the capital of his home state, Adamawa. It was also rumoured, some few months ago, that Atiku smartly attempted to return to the PDP, but was blocked by some forces in the party. So, the news of his return to the PDP may not be surprising to political pundits who have been closely monitoring the body language in his political camp. However, Atiku’s plans return to the PDP has raised some important questions as well as series of political hypothesis on why he choose the current time to perfect his long thought plan. Is it a sign that that the former Vice President has received a green light from an influential factor in the PDP? Perhaps, he has already smartly got PDP‘s membership card from his ward. Only time will tell.

Political pundits are of the view that Atiku’s return to the PDP is what the strong man of Italian politics and its Prime Minister; Silvio Berlusconi called sopravvivenza politica- political survival. Nevertheless, there is no doubt; Atiku’s return to PDP would affect the political permutation in the PDP, the Action Congress, Adamawa State in particular and Nigeria as a whole.

There are three schools of thought on the reasons why Atiku choose this current political situation to return to the PDP. The first thought by students of politic holds the view that, Atiku is imprisoned by his ambition to be President of Nigeria in 2011, so he has seen a rare opportunity he can’t afford to miss. The second school of thought is that of political analysts, their view is, Atiku’s move is nothing but a display of one of the many intriguing characters of the Nigerian politicians- they are always in perpetual oscillation; they stick only to where the wave offers them satisfaction of their political interest, giving truth to the saying that politics is all about interest. The third school of thought is that of ordinary Nigerians, who see Atiku’s return to the PDP as the ‘the same old story’- the Nigerian political environment will continue to be dominated by same elements who have same interest. However, Atiku’s loyalists are quick to point out that Atiku’s move is purely for national interests, especially at this critical moment. National interest, peace and unity are key words that Nigerian politicians use all the time to achieve their political goals, so to speak.

There was a claim by a group with a name Coalition for True Democrats which is based in Jimeta-Yola, Atiku’s home state capital, that Atiku’s return to the PDP was designed to be a counterbalance to the Generals in the PDP. Though Atiku’s media aide has denied the group, calling them fifth columnists. Atiku is wise enough not to contemplate using such a sentiment as a weapon for his return to the PDP. It will be a political suicide by him; after all, he is product of late General’s Shehu Musa Yar’Adua’s political magnanimity. In addition, Atiku cannot afford any political fight this time around, because he has fought many battles and, though he won a lots of them, political-war has cost him quite a lot of political fortune- he has lost his home state and some his political allies. This brings us to the implications of Atiku’s return to PDP as regards Adamawa politics.

The Adamawa State government and the State chapter of the PDP in a statement recently, opposed Atiku’s move. It is obvious that the reasons for the fear, nervousness, leg-wobbling and rumblings among politicians in Adamawa State are because of Atiku’s plans to return to the PDP is nothing but the possibility of him dominating the political scene which is a little bit crowded with many political interests. Besides that, Atiku has strong and widespread political might, which any clever politician will look at twice. Moreover, the truth of the matter is, once Abuja is okay with Atiku’s return to the PDP, the state chapter and indeed the Adamawa state government has no option than to receive him with open hands. But, Atiku has to prepare for a fierce resistance both from his home state and other political interest, having in mind that politics is all about openness and secrecy, honesty and deception. Atiku’s failure to reconcile with the PDP at the time the party valued and dreaded him most- i.e. before the Supreme Court judgment on his case against Yar’Adua’s election, has given his adversary within the PDP the political weapon needed against him, though the odds seem to be in his favour.

Does Atiku still possess his hitherto political charisma and ‘macho-man’ power, especially the one he possessed during his ‘no shaking’ political battle with former President Obasanjo, to face the already in the waiting opposition in the PDP? Does the PDP need Atiku or is it Atiku that needs the PDP? The answers are anybody’s guess- the road to the ‘shield of the umbrella’ may not be as smooth as it seems. High-wired politicking is needed. The answer to the second question is - both Atiku and the PDP need each other, in one way or the other. Atiku was a member of the G21 and G34- the founding groups of the PDP; and he is still the Head of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), a political grouping founded by the late Gen. Shehu Yar’Adua, a movement that is still a component in the backbone of the PDP. Additionally, Nigeria being a heterogeneous society and also an ethno-religious sensitive country, Atiku is among the few politicians that many Nigerian outside his ethno-religious leanings are conformable with. So, the PDP will leverage from that. On the other hand, the PDP is stronger than any of the political party in the country, thus it seems the only platform strong enough to smoothen Atiku’s way to actual his ambition, so he needs its emblem.

From now to 2011 many interesting high-wired politics would happen. Nigerians should expect one-two-punch political battles; bubble to bubble politicking as well as merry-go-around political games, all for who becomes the President in 2011.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

The Ministers Dr. Goodluck Jonathan Needs

Now that Acting President Goodluck Jonathan has finally dissolved the Executive Council of the Federation. Hopes are high that he would bring on board his best choices as new Ministers, thus, asserting full authority and putting a strong personal stamp on the government. The last 15 months remaining for this administration is crucial, this is because Nigerians’ quests for change on how things are done are strong, and their expectations are very high, but will the Acting President make the right selection that would make a difference?

When new Ministers eventually come on board, Dr. Goodluck will have to take full responsibilities of any actions or inaction of the government; as the doors of complain of working with disloyal individuals as Ministers would be completely closed.

However, for Dr. Goodluck to make any difference, he has to move with a speed commensurate with the expectations of Nigerians. The first thing he has to make sure is that; his new set of ministers is not just a team, but a collection of great thinkers- silicon-valley-thinkers; men and women who can move the government with the speed of the imagination of most Nigerians, and their sense of judgment must be centered on the challenges of un-locking the future for ordinary Nigerians. And also bring new thinking and synergy to the public sector's role in providing the needs of all Nigerians.

Dr. Goodluck’s new team has to be a propeller for greater equality of opportunities for all Nigerians. They must be able to build a system that will swing the government away from the traditional methodology of concentrating on only 'off-the-shelves' way of improving our society- each Minister must see himself/herself not only saddled with the responsibility within his/her portfolio; but a team player that would bring new feasible ideas that would trigger development in all spheres of the Nigerian economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities rather than guns, axes, bows and arrows and fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance.

This is the time for Nigeria to leapfrog the ladder development. It is sad that, for the past three years, Nigeria has not had a new thinking and fresh approach to governance. The country is thirsty for men and women of innovative ideas. Dr. Goodluck’s new set of ministers must be a team that will be an engine-room to provide broad variety of services to Nigerians, ranging from health and social programs, to defence, electricity, police protection, maintaining a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the re-invigoration of the education system, building of small scale industries and farms, roads construction and human capital development.

However, all these mentioned cannot be achieved without true political reform- a political re-engineering that would make the leadership to all the times think with the speed of the expectations of Nigerians and gradually institutionalise political, economic and social order in the society.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

2011: Nigeria Needs a Strong President

What is the cause of the current messy political situation in Nigeria? The answer is anybody’s guess- the absent of strong leadership in the presidency; perhaps, a leadership that could have produced spiralling domino effect. It appears both President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Acting President Jonathan Goodluck are not on top of issues of statecraft when it comes to critical political situation; especially the one Nigeria is in today. This is not an attempt at casting aspersion on them, or suggesting that they should have applied iron-hands in their styles of leadership, but it seems they have allowed their subordinates to dictate their course of actions or inactions.

Though, some school of thought may argue that, it is Nigeria’s peculiar political environment and the prevailing political situation in the country that forced the two leaders to appear too submissive to their subordinates. However, political pundits are of the view that, strong leadership know no particular situation.

There is no doubt that, both Yar’Adua and Goodluck are gentlemen of no refute and their stints as Governors have offered them some kind of training on quality leadership. But, since November 23, 2009, when President Yar’Adua left Nigeria to Saudi Arabia, to the day of his return on February 24, 2010, there is strong belief in Nigeria, that some people around the President are the ones dictating the actions or inaction of the President. On the other hand, Acting President Jonathan Goodluck’s actions and inactions from day-one of the current political crisis portrays him as too simple. Some commentators are of the view that, before his confirmation as Acting President, had Dr. Goodluck from day-one of the President’s absent, shown to Nigerians that he is in-charge, the country could have avoided the untidy political situation of which has brought confusion as to who is in-charge of the nation’s affairs, as well as prevented people from taking advantage of the situation. , we must although, admit that, Dr. Goodluck has to tread carefully to avoid plunging the country into a big political crisis. The big question here is, does Yar’Adua really know what is happening in the country? Taking into consideration that the Nigerian public has not seen Yar’Adua since September 23, when he left Nigeria and neither was he seen on the day of his return- making his whereabouts remains speculative.

Assuming the current situation was during the Obasanjo/Atiku, Buhari/Idiagbon, IBB, or Gen. Murtala administration, it would not have become this messy despite their shortcomings, because these were strong men. For instance, if it was Obasanjo, no one could have caged him from seeing or to be seen by people, not even being bungled back to the country when he is not prepared to. In addition, had it been that it was former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, from day-one, no one would need to be told he is sitting-in for the President

The current messy political situation in Nigeria has taught Nigerians a political lesson. In the up-coming 2011 elections, the country must vote and insist for a strong leader. Though, the Nigerian political environment has so much been polluted with issues that lack political progressivism, especially when it comes to who occupies the seat of the President.

It has now become rule within the Nigerian political class that who occupies the office of the President of Nigeria must fulfil some bizarre conditions- the north-south dichotomy; Muslims–Christians difference, the Yoruba, Hausa-Fulani, Igbo unhealthy race and the most disgusting issue is, one has to belong to a certain clique.

Though, Nigeria being a heterogeneous society and also an ethno-religious sensitive country, balanced power structure is desirable. It can also be said that the north-south issue especially as regards the presidency of Nigeria has been in existence for long time in Nigeria. But Nigerians have proved that all they need is good leadership, MKO Abiola won throughout the country despite the fact that he ran for the presidency on a Muslim-Muslim ticket, Gen. Murtala is an indisputable Nigerian hero and Nigerian throughout the country are today celebrating Gov. Fashola of Lagos State.

As earlier said, Nigeria being a heterogeneous society that is sensitive to some issues, balancing of power structure between the federating units is good, but it shouldn’t be at the detriment of good leadership. However, the disappointment is, it has now escalated to a dangerous path; the rule has been extended to states, local government and even wards elections. Today, ethnic, religious and geographical divides are louder than competency and good manifestoes in the Nigerian political sphere.

Few months from now, Nigeria will elect a new President, there is hope that Nigerians can turn things around and insist and vote for a strong President regardless of ethnic, religious or geographical considerations. A president with the ability to inspire enthusiasm in Nigerians with just a wink of an eye, an individual with vision for the future , who can go extra mile to get things done, one that can differentiate between reality and smokescreen and also remain positive in the public eye, no matter what the situation may be. When Nigeria has such a president development issues will quickly replace mundane ones in our polity. Though, for Nigeria to have such a President come 2011, we need an environment that breeds success. Electoral reforms and strong institutions are the keys needed to create such an environment.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

The North and Goodluck Jonathan Presidency

It is no news that Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is fully in-charge as the Acting President of the Federal Republic Nigeria. But the high-wired political intrigues, manoeuvres and horse-trading that heralded his emergence as the Acting President will continue to deepen as well as become very interesting. As events unfold, political pundits and students of history will have a lot to comment on, learn from and also use to predict things to come, while ordinary Nigerians will watch with keen interest.

The emergence of Yar’Adua as the President of Nigeria was a product of many factors. One of the main factors was the unwritten ‘agreement’ of power rotation between the north and south, which many observers see as undemocratic and also an offshoot of the never-ending ploy by the Nigerian political elites to continue to hold on to power, but it supporters described idea as the only way-out for all parts of the country to taste power.

Goodluck Jonathan’s Acting Presidency and the likelihood of him becoming the President will interweave within three issues; the return or otherwise of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the North’s political moves and Goodluck’s political future.

The north would be the epicentre of politics to come. Since the emergence of the facts about President Yar’Adua’s health status, political gladiators in the region are busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2011 presidential election, believing that the probability of Yar’Adua seeking a second term is very slim. There is strong feeling within the political class in the north, that the region must hold on to power till 2015 based on the aforementioned unwritten agreement, but most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the north that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the south to complete their eight years in power, the same north fielded candidates to seek the office of the President.

Let’s assume all things being equal, and the north is allowed to go solo; is the political class in the region ready to make amends and present a candidate that would bring dynamisms and also exhibit an understanding of global trends? The north had made a serious mistake by allowing Obasanjo to pick his choice to represent it, because the region had the political power to block Obasanjo then. Though, the beauty of this remains a lesson to other regions when their ‘turn’ comes.

Now that it appears the north is slowly losing the Presidency, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan will be closely watched by the region; in addition, his actions and inactions will be thoroughly read by the northern political class. In return, the Acting President has to face the north with two calculations in his mind. The first; he has to keep in his mind the likelihood of the return of his boss, Yar’Adua, in this case, Jonathan will employ his usual tactic of being Mr. Patient. So, those that are expecting him to go bananas will be disappointed. But if he eventually becomes the President, he has to play the imitable- approach the north through political manoeuvring that requires reaching painstaking political agreement and concessions. Politics, they say, is all about give and take.

However, if Yar’Adua returns, Jonathan’s political calculations will definitely change. As earlier mentioned, the man must have been playing his politics with two things in mind, the return or otherwise of his boss. If Yar’Adua returns, Jonathan’s calculations must be on how to remain the Vice President, regardless of who will be the presidential candidate that will be presented by the north. Though, the feeling in many quarters is, the likelihood of Yar’Adua going for second term is slim. But is Yar’Adua ready to allow the north to represent another candidate for the 2011 presidential elections. If the north presents another candidate, there is no grantee he/she will do only one term of four years, so as to allow the south takeover, thus jeopardising Acting President Goodluck Jonathan chance of becoming President after the north might have finished its two terms.

If Yar’Adua do not eventually return, and in the end Acting President Goodluck Jonathan becomes the President, there is nothing that can stop him from seeking election into the office of the President, in fact many political elites from the north will campaign for him if they see the possibilities of their interests being promoted. In that case, high-wired politics that involves manoeuvres and horse-trading will be employed. Another possible scenario is, if Jonathan performs excellently, this will give him the advantage of winning the heart of Nigerians. He may also use the leverage of being the President and impose himself in 2011 as the President using the machinery of the State.

Acting President Goodluck Jonathan’s political future will be determined by four issues, the first and the most important is the return or otherwise of President Yar’Adua, the second is the political direction of the north, the third is his political intention and his ability to craftily play the usual Nigerian politics, while the fourth which is also closely tied to the first is his performance in office. Acting President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself in a situation that both politics and policies may determine his political future. To see him through, he has to take careful political steps and intelligent policies, these require more than good luck!

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

Between Atiku and Boni Haruna

Between Atiku and Boni Haruna

Political pundits always say politics makes strange bedfellows. The apparent growing bumpy political-relationship between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the former Governor of the Adamawa State, Boni Haruna, is a proof to this old political saying.

Atiku and Boni have together made a long political journey. They both have enjoyed the fruits and also tasted the bitter parts of the journey. Their political relationship can be traced back to Atiku’s early days in politics- the former Vice President needed highly educated young men to be part of his political team, and Boni fitted in. Well, that was history, as many things have happened.

Today’s frosty political-relationship between Atiku and Boni Haruna is generating comments from three groups: Atiku’s political disciples, Boni’s followers and students of politics. Atiku’s sympathisers are of the opinion that, Boni Haruna has exhibited a character of an ingrate, they stressed that, it was by Atiku’s grace he became the Governor of Adamawa State. They were also quick to point-out the fact that, Atiku made Boni politically. From being a journalist to being Personal Assistant to former Gov. Jolly Nyame during the SDP days, and later picked him as his deputy when Atiku contested for Governor of Adamawa State. Atiku also stood firm by him to be the Governor, when he Atiku was selected by Obasanjo to be his deputy.

On the other hand, Boni’s followers are of the view that, Boni has done for Atiku, what some sons cannot do their fathers. They said Boni has given to Atiku an unalloyed loyalty during his difficult political moment- the famous Obasanjo-Atiku saga. They are also quick to point-out that, had it been, Boni pitched camp with Obasanjo during that time, Boni would get whatever he wanted from Obasanjo, including the keys to controlling Adamawa Politics. Boni’s follower always conclude that, “Boni was there for Atiku when he Atiku needed him most, but Atiku was not there for Boni, when he Boni needed just a little of him”



From another perspective, students of politics see the situation through the prisms of political calculations; they opined that, after the 2007 general elections, Atiku made some wrong political calculations. They believe that his failure to take advantage of the ‘PDM umbrella’ and negotiate with Yar’Adua to secure Adamawa politics to the advantage of his political group was a big blunder. Atiku could have taken the advantage of that moment that the PDP and Yar’Adua valued and dreaded him politically- i.e. before the Supreme Court judgment on his case against Yar’Adua’s election. Atiku’s solo trip was fruitless, because he disregarded intelligent political advice from people like Boni.



The political relationship between Atiku and Boni Haruna is very important in the political sphere of Adamawa State because of so many reasons: Atiku is a political power house in Adamawa. During his sway as Vice-President; his adored political son, Boni Haruna, got the privilege of becoming an important branch of Atiku’s political tentacles in Adamawa Sate. So, political groups in Adamawa will naturally have strong interest in Atiku and Boni political relationship.



As the 2011 election approaches and political activities continue to unfold, if Atiku and Boni finally go on separated political platforms; the duo will for certain employ five strategies to consolidate their positions and checkmate each other’s political moves. Atiku will employ three, while Boni will make use of two. Among Atiku’s three strategies is, he will try as much as he can to ignore Boni politically, employing that as a proof to the world that he and Boni are no political equals. Secondly, he will utilise both his financial and political muscles to checkmate Boni, while the third and the most significant is; Atiku will try to religiously maintain his followers in the AC and also attract new ones.



Boni’s two strategies will be: he will form a strong alliance with the PDP and also with the current government in Adamawa State, this will be for one reason, to attract many politicians from the AC, his former political appointees and other politicians who for long wanted to join the PDP and the government in Adamawa, but whom absence of a leader to lead them has hindered them. Boni’s second strategy will be using the aforementioned alliance to send a signal to the government at the centre and PDP at the national level, that he has great political clout to make him a factor in strengthening PDP’s grip of Adamawa.



Both Atiku and Boni will succeed if they cleverly use these strategies; however, the duo have certain roadblocks to dismantle in order to pull through. The PDP in Adamawa is seriously fragmented; Boni has to make some error-free calculations to avoid political suicide. For him to succeed, he has to apply two laws of power: Law 19: Know who you’re dealing with and Law 20: Do not commit to anyone.



For Atiku, he has to keep in his mind that many of his political supporters were use to be close to the corridor of powers, they are very thirsty for that, Boni’s move may be an eye opener for them, so, Atiku should expect that not all of them will swim and sink with him. Second law of power will work for him. Never put too much trust in friends, learn how to use enemies.

Who will be the winners of this seeming love-loss between Atiku and Boni? Three people of course: Boni’s former political appointees, the PDP in Adamawa state and some members of Atiku’s political family who want to always be at the centre of mainstream politics. While the losers are two people: Atiku and Boni, they will lose one thing, political-friendship.

However, political pundits are quick to point-out that, this kind of political game is not strange; it is an integral part of politicking. As the politics of 2011 is thickening, any politician that doesn’t play ‘politics’ with politics, he is like what Italian politicians refer to as ‘Nonentity Politico’. Politics, they say, is all about interest.



Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.