A 3-Way Development for Nigeria

Olusegun Aganga
Nigeria's Minister of Finance

                                                                                       
Developed and emerging economies transited through three stages of development: agrarian, industrial and information. Their transition through these stages of development wasn’t easy, as they made painful sacrifices, undertook painstaking researches and witnessed difficult moments. Must Nigeria go through the aforementioned systematic stages of development for many years for her to attain the position of a developed or a truly an emerging economy? Certainly, no. Leaders who shaped their countries and gave their people voice and direction, did so by putting in place a plan to serve as alternative model for their nation’s economic growth. For instance, China has emerged as a manufacturing and trading powerhouse in the world because of Chairman Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ which was designed as an alternative to the Soviet model of governance.


Nigeria has for long-time been battling with political, social and institutional obstacles to her development despite the country’s huge oil wealth and human capital. Time has come for Nigeria’s political class to design for the country a new development model that will focus on promoting economic growth, structural changes and improving the potential of Nigeria’s human capital through both public and private channels.

Nigeria’s leaders, policy formulators and implementers should adopt a 3-way development model, whereby the country simultaneously develops her agricultural sector, small scale industries and human capital. That is, putting in place a process through which the country’s economy are transformed over define period, by the reinvigoration of the agricultural sector, propelling small scale industrialisation and placing the country in a position so that her citizens can take advantage of the vast opportunities the world economy offers. The 3-way development model proposes that Nigeria benchmarked China’s Chairman Mao’s model of agriculturalisation, industrialization, and collectivization. But how will a democratic and heterogeneous Nigeria achieve it?

Nigeria’s development efforts placed emphasis on urban development at the expense of rural development which leads to a substantial rise in inequality between Nigerians. For Nigeria to achieve sustainable rural development, the country has to tie its rural development strategy to agriculture. Notwithstanding the fact that most of Nigeria’s economic activities, especially in the agricultural sector are not part of the measured financial transactions, agriculture can play a role in Nigeria’s GDP per capita. This writer once advocated for a new agricultural scheme that encourages an all inclusive participatory technique- where youth, communities, local councils, states, the federal government and the private sector (financial institutions and private investors) will be major participants. Financial institutions and private investors shall be the financiers; governments at all levels will have well-defined roles, while the youths and small scale farmers shall be the primary targets. In addition, the scheme should be designed to be in four categories- ‘export oriented’, ‘large’, ‘medium’ and ‘small’ scales, along with a well-defined timeframe for government complete handoff from the scheme.

The federal government would be the guarantor of fund to be provided by financial institutions or private investors. This will be done through the issuance of federal government bonds. The scheme should work in such a way that local councils and state government would provide lands and other logistics. The private investors or financial institutions who will participate in the scheme are not to give money directly to the government in order to receive the bond-certificate, but it would be a kind of batter arrangement; where the investors; either financial institutions or private individuals would setup farms, in addition to putting in place all structures required in a standard farm. Afterwards, a bond certificate equivalent to the cost which is to be determined by both parties and NGO’s will be issued to them. This will completely eliminate corruption which is the main course of failure of most good programmes in Nigeria. To encourage investors to participate in the scheme, before the maturity of the bond, the investor would take a prescribed stake, between 5% and 10% in any of the farms they setup. They will also assist in monitoring progress on the farm. On top of being an added value to the investors, since, in addition to the interests they will get from their bond when it is redeemed, this will also give them rights to shares from the farms’ profit. However, after the maturity of the bond, their stakes in the farm would be transferred to the host communities.

Though Industrialisation entailed both technology and profound social development, Nigeria can develop a small scale industrialisation programme with systemic as well as systematic measures to steer resources into the productive process. This proposed 3-way development model strongly ties Nigeria’s small scale industrialisation to its agricultural output and to the much-talked ‘waste to wealth’ efforts, as Nigeria has a total area of 910,768 km² of arable land, 13,000 km² water; and twenty-one (21) agricultural institutions, in addition to generation millions of tons of recyclable wastes every day. This will help in sustaining and developing the agricultural sector, boost export of finished or semi-finished goods as well as reduce unnecessary importation. But what kind of small scale industrialisation Nigeria should embrace?

Looking around us we see Asian products, such as razor blades, pine needles, envelopes, keys and padlocks, cotton buds, toys, shoelaces, safety matches umbrellas, doormats, office square clips, treasury tags, table flags, carpets etc in our markets. Most of these items are produced from agricultural outputs and recyclables wastes by small industries setup with small amount of capital and powered by solar panels or small wind turbines. Most of these industries are owned and run by a family of two or three in Shanghai, Taipei, Manila or Bombay. For example, a part of the Ikorodu-Shagamu road axis of Lagos State is occupied by Indians, busy building steel mills industry, utilising raw materials sourced from steels generated by Nigerians as waste.

The Bank of Industry, the Central bank of Nigeria, NAPEP and the ministry of commerce and industry should ensure that Nigerian small-scale industries and interested individuals benefit from the recently released intervention funds. And, instead of giving money to all loan beneficiaries, government can setup small industries and handover the industries to some of them.

Factors such as considerable advancements in science and technology, establishment of broadly-based government and strengthening of institutions along with issues ranging from social to cultural, economic policies to institution development, geographic location to opportunities all led to exceptional economic development for some countries. Besides, human capital development has played a vital role that has led to significant socio-economic progress and improvement in the lives of large number of people in many countries, noteworthy is the rapid and long sustainable high growth performances of East Asian economies. Nigeria can utilise her human capital for economic development. Though, economists are of the view that, for human capital to spawn a perceptible impact on economic development, a nation needs to have a minimum of at least 70 per cent literate population. Nigerians are a very creative and dynamic people. Despite the absence of strong formal support, Nigerians have made sport, music, art and the film industries promising. Nigerian government can take advantage of this and use these industries to create jobs and generate wealth, by hunting for top quality talented Nigerians, provide them with world–class training by assisting private entrepreneurs to establish well-equipped record companies, modern film studios, sport development enterprises and remove every obstacle that hampers the flourishing of these industries. Information technology (I.T.) and software are also today major sources of foreign exchange for most emerging economies. India is leveraging from its massive investment in I.T. and software development. Nigeria’s human capital has the potentials to be major exporters of I.T. professionals.

China owes her development to Chairman Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ of agriculturalisation, industrialisation, and collectivisation. Nigeria’s can benchmark Chairman Mao’s idea through agriculturalisation, small scale industrialisation and human capital development. Though, it took China decades to start reaping the benefits of the ‘Great Leap Forward’. Nigeria can reap from the proposed model within five to ten years, because the world today is very different from the one that was, some decades ago. All that the country needs are there, except that person that would push the right button- our Chairman Mao, so to speak.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980                                 

10 Ways Jonathan Can Win the North Over

The race to 2011 presidential election is becoming hotter with high-wired politics, intrigues, manoeuvring and horse-trading at the peak. And, if push comes to shove, ‘political konfo’ may come into play. The three principal actors are: the North, President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP.

President Goodluck Jonathan had gone through a long journey via the ‘doctrine of necessity’ to be the Acting President and by the ‘doctrine of reality’ to be the President of Nigeria. The President has started another knotty political-journey on a pot-hole-riddled-road with many sharp, sloppy and hilly bends.

The President has to apply the techniques of a patient driver. He has to be alert; learn to slow down and not tailgate. This is logical, because it will give him the ample time to get around ‘rickety’ and slow moving vehicle as well as be able to observe road signs, potholes, open car doors and cars coming towards him . Dr. Goodluck has to be wary of some passengers in his vehicle, they may be obstructive; he has to also strictly observe lane ends signs; give big trucks some rooms and shouldn’t try to beat trains- they can’t stop.

If President Goodluck adheres strictly to these driving tips, he will get through the rough political road effortlessly. However, if the President chooses to be a reckless driver, his vehicle will plunge from the start.

President Goodluck has three groups to face in the north: the political elites; the Talakawas and a unique emerging group of advocates of new approach to north’s political and development direction.

President Goodluck can use ten ways to persuade these three groups to support his presidential ambition. Of these ten ways, he can use four development policies to talk into the masses, one ‘politico-developmental’ agenda to convince the unique emerging group and whopping five political games to persuade the northern political elites.

President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself in a situation that both politics and policies may determine his political future. To see him through, he has to take careful and intelligent political steps. To gain the support of the Talakawas of the north, he has to design speedy but feasible policies that will break the poverty cycle in the north through economically empowering the poor; introduce agricultural programs that will reach real farmers as well as make them feel ownership and involvement in the programs; implement an education policy that will tackle the Almajiri phenomenon through workable integration of Quranic schools with formal schools and promotion of girl child education; and above all, be a fair leader. The leadership in the north has woefully failed in these regards. If President Goodluck can show a little sign of providing practical solutions to problems in these areas, the Talakawas of the north will definitely give him their votes. On the election day; he can just sit and cross his legs, sip a steaming cup of tea prepared by madam first lady. This is because the north has never voted based on regional or ethnic sentiments; but on candidates’ personal integrity and ability to free the people from the prison of poverty. The 1979; 1983; 1992 and 1999 elections were clear examples.

There is a group of young educated people springing in the north; this group see the hullaballoo about power rotation between the north and south, as undemocratic and also an offshoot of the never-ending ploy by the Nigerian political elites to continue to hold on to power. Moreover, they are strongly advocating a paradigm shift in the north’s development and political direction in such a way that the region will only vote for a leader with a vision; someone who listens to new ideas; accept new ways of doing things, as well as has a clear, vivid picture of what success looks like and how to achieve it. Not someone who hides behind regionalism to consolidate on cronyism and ‘stockpiles’ his pocket. The old days are gone, so to speak! President Goodluck can win the heart of this group if he can move with a speed commensurate with their expectations; in bringing new thinking and synergy to the public sector through feasible ideas that would trigger development in all spheres of the Nigerian economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities rather than guns, axes, bows and arrows; fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance, as well as provide broad variety of services to Nigerians, ranging from health and social programs, defence, electricity, police protection, maintain a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the reinvigoration of the education system, build small scale industries and farms, roads construction and human capital development. These groups of young educated northerners are looking for a Nigerian that will lead Nigeria like a CEO; not someone who will bombard their ears with gobbledygook.

The biggest hurdle President Goodluck Jonathan has to cross is winning his party’s presidential ticket. And the truth is, winning the hearts of the above mentioned two groups, is just a scratch on the back when it comes to winning the PDP’s ticket. Support from the Nigerian bigwig politicians is very paramount. As earlier mentioned, for President Goodluck to win over northern political elites, he can use five ways to do so. There are five groups of political elites in the north: the 19 northern governors; those seeking elective offices; career politicians; traditional and religious class as well as those who want to be President. Let’s look at the five political-games that the President can use to persuade these groups.

The process of seeking political offices in the north was built on the principle and foundation of negotiations. Politics, they say, is all about give and take. This is the first of the five ways President Goodluck can use to persuade the northern political elites, especially the 19 northern governors.

Immediately after the death of late President Umaru Yar’Adua, political gladiators in the north became busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2011 presidential election. Strategising and building formidable political network is technique number two, which is very crucial for President Goodluck in winning over the political elites in the north, especially the traditional and religious class.

As earlier mentioned, there are career politicians among the category of the north political elites. This group have started what they know best- politicking, by forming pro and anti Jonathan groups and associations in addition to shouting their voices at any given opportunity. They are the easiest group to be won over. The President knows better than anybody on how to win over this group- political patronage is their price.

There is strong feeling within another category of the political class in the north that the region must hold on to power till 2015 based on the unwritten power rotation agreement. Even some people outside the north hold such view. Professor Tam David West in his interview with The Spectator Newspaper of Saturday, July 10-July 16, 2010, page 12-13, he said: “Jonathan should honourably obey what he signed”. The Prof. went further and said that he will not support a southern President by becoming President on the platform of a Northern President. Most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the north and those supporting them, that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the south to complete their eight years in power, the same north fielded candidates to seek the office of the President. For President Goodluck to win the support of this group; concession, honest engagement and collective bargaining are his only keys.

The fifth technique for President Goodluck Jonathan to use to win over the political elites in the north is the most interesting one; and the most fascinating, it’s Dr. Goodluck’s only weapon in facing the most difficult and formidable group- those also aspiring to the President. The technique is nothing but sheer high-wired politics full of scheming, manoeuvres and horse-trading. In dealing with this group, President Goodluck should always put in his mind that any slight error will be a huge political suicide, because Nigerian politics is all about secrecy and openness. He shouldn’t also forget that sometimes one needs more than just good luck, because the future is not something that happens; it is something that you make happen.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

Appraising Adamawa MPs in the National Assembly

                                         

The 6th National Assembly will end in 2011. Politicians have started squabbling to get elected as members of the House Representatives or as Senators; those in Adamawa State are also not left out. Almost in all the federal constituencies in the state, there are scores of individual who have indicated their interests to contest either as Honourable Members of the House of Representatives or Distinguished Senators of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Students of politics are of the view that the political space in Adamawa is being crowded with so many candidates vying to be MPs, because the current members representing the state in both chambers of the National assembly have not performed to the expectation of Adamawa people; while political pundits are of the opinion that the combination of many factors is the reasons, whereas, on-the-street opinion on the sudden flare-up of interests by throngs of candidates in virtually all the federal constituencies in Adamawa reveals that the reasons for this is not farther from theory of the typical Nigerian politician- ‘it is my turn’.

Critics of Adamawa MPs have categorised them into various classes based on their performances: average; below average; poor and very poor. Almost all MPs at the lower chamber of the National Assembly have been under intense criticisms from many quarters, but those from Adamawa are in a class of their own. However, their supporters argue that, those criticising the MPs from Adamawa are merely hiding under the name of public censure to play politics.

Looking at the issue beyond politics, some important questions need to be answered: have Adamawa representatives in both the ‘red’ and ‘green’ chambers represented their constituencies and the nation outstandingly as they ought to have done? Will they have easy ride in their bid to return to the National Assembly? The answers are anybody’s guess.

Out of the nation’s 109 senators, Adamawa state has three: Grace Folashade Bent (PDP): Adamawa South, Jibril Aminu (PDP): Adamawa Central and Mohammed Mana (PDP): Adamawa North; while out of the 360 members of the House of Representatives, the state has 8 members: Abubakar Mahmud Wambai (PDP): representing Mubi North/Mubi South/Maiha, Aminu Hamman Ribadu (PDP): representing Fufore/Song, Anthony Madwatte (PDP): representing Demsa/Numan /Lamurde, Babale Martins (AC): representing Jada/Ganye/ Mayobelwa/Toungo federal constituency, Binta Masi Garba (PDP): Madagali/Michika, Emmanuel Bello (PDP):Gombi/ Hong, Jim Kwawo Audu(AC): Guyuk/Shelleng, and Sa’ad M.C. Tahir is representing Yola North/Yola South/Girei federal constituency

50 year old Senator Grace Folashade Bent was a beneficiary of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s ‘political largesse’ in Adamawa. Her performance in the red chambers in term of contributions on national issues when compared to her colleagues’, can be said to be excellent, while her zeal in the area of alleviation of poverty and the promotion of youth and women causes in her constituency is very good. However, with the unfolding political events in Adamawa state, she will have a difficult task in her bid to make a second return to the Senate. Her senatorial district will be an epicentre of hot politics, especially with the return of Atiku to PDP, who is also from the senatorial district. Painfully, despite her exceptional performance in the Senate, Senator Grace will face one of the mundane issues in the Nigeria politics- politics of ethnicity. Grace is of Yoruba extraction, she may face stiff opposition from Adamawa Minority Forum, in addition to two strong opponents: former President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, (NLC), Chief Pascal Bafyau and Alhaji Salisu Barata a two-time member of the House of Representatives. Though, she will have to heavily rely on her strong connection with the youth and women in her constituency.

Sen. Mohammed Mana, former Commander Brigade of Guards and former Military Administrator of Plateau State is representing Adamawa North in the upper chamber. Despite his vast military experience, his critics say his performance in the Senate has not reflected his experience in nation building; though his supporters are of the view that his performance is average. However, he has a hard way ahead of him, in his bid to return to the Senate, because there are formidable politicians showing interest in his seat- people like the oil and gas technocrat, Zira Maigida, who was the former Managing Director of African Petroleum Plc and Sahara Energy Group, other strong contenders are, Emmanuel Valhalla Tarihri, a commissioner in the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission , who was also the former commissioner of finance in Adamawa, Senator Paul Wanpana, PDP National vice chairman, NorthEast, Bindo Umaru Jibrilla, business tycoon and Esther Wallabai.

Sen. Jibril Muhammad Aminu is the only two-term senator from Adamawa; he is the oldest, most educated and controversial among the three senators representing Adamawa State. The Professor of Medicine, cum diplomat was the greatest beneficiary of the Obasanjo-Atiku political war, his critics say his performance in the 6th National Assembly wasn’t dodged and superb as it was in the 5th Assembly; they went on to say that he always hides in the name of ‘elder’ in the senate not to perform. However, it seems that Senator Aminu will have an easy ride back to the Senate, because there seems to be no strong contender that can match the professor politically as he controls an appreciable stake in the PDP.

On the other hand, the eight members representing Adamawa at the ‘green’ chambers of the National Assembly came to house by riding on the back of political bigwigs in the state. Their critics say their performance at the House of Representative is appalling - none of them can beat his chest to get his party’s ticket, except may be one.

Hon. Abubakar Mahmud Wambai, Madawakin Mubi, who started his career as a Grade III teacher, is representing Mubi North/Mubi South/Maiha constituency, he came to the House in the late 2009, riding on the support of Adamawa state government. Though an amateur; his critics says his start was not impressive- there is already a wide disconnection between him and his constituency. He will face a thorny journey in his quest to make a return, because those likely to contest for his seat are politically further-up-the- ladder than he is; people like Shuaibu Abubakar the present commissioner of Land and Survey, John Babani Elias, Abdulrahmna Kwacham and Shehu Iya Abubakar.

Hon. Aminu Hamman Ribadu, representing Fufore/Song constituency, is not new in politics, he was the chairman of Fufore Local Government and also SSA to former Gov. Boni Haruna. He came to the House through the support of former Deputy Gov. Bello Tukur. His critics say his performance is miscellaneous. The emerging political alignment in the state may be a disadvantage or an advantage to him, depending on where the pendulum swings to.

Demsa, Numan & Lamurde constituency is represented by a former Permanent Secretary in Adamawa Govt., Hon. Anthony Madwatte. Political pundits described him as a politician that has never gone through real political stress-test. This was attributed to the Numan-axis political style that operate a kind of one-way politics- once you get the support of the bigwigs, victory is assured. Hon. Madwatte has been an MP since 2003. His critics described his performance as below average. He will also face the challenges of the emerging political alignment in Adamawa; he can scale through if he plays his cards smartly.

Hon. Babale Martins and Hon. Jim Kwawo Audu are the only two MPs from Adamawa who came to the House on the platform of the Action Congress (AC). Hon. Martins is representing Jada/Ganye/Toungo/ Mayobelwa, while Hon. Kwawo is representing Guyuk/Shelleng constituency. Political pundits believe that Hon. Martins political fate will be determined squarely by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, while for Kwawo, despite the fact that he is the only member who has only WAEC certificate, is the only one that can stand on his own.

Hon. Binta Masi Garba is so far the only federal legislator to have contested elections in two states as a member of the House of Representatives, she was elected twice in Kaduna on the platform of the ANPP; she now represents Michika/Madagali Federal Constituency in Adamawa on the platform of the PDP. Her performance is average. Despite the fact that by 2011 she would have spent twelve years in the House, she will have to heavily rely on the magnanimity of political bigwigs. Though, Adamawa state needs her legislative experience, if the speculation that the former commissioner of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs, Saleh Ginjir is warming-up to contest the seat, it will be a nightmare for her.

Hon. Emmanuel Bello a graduate of Harvard Business School, came to the House without any public service experience. Observers described his performance as poor. His critics always argue that he didn’t win the PDP primaries for his seat. He rode on the back of General Haldu Hannaniya. His constituency, Gombi/Hong will also be hot spot, with diverse political interest, the Minister of State for foreign Affairs, Dr Aliyu Idi Hong is from that constituency. Hon. Bello’s chance of returning to the House is very slim, except if the political bigwigs hold his hands to help him cross the bridge.

Hon. Sa’ad M.C. Tahir is representing the complex and most cosmopolitan of all the eight federal constituencies- Yola North, Yola South and Girei. No one has ever won re-election in the constituency and the cosmopolitan people of the constituency always expect first rate performance from their MPs. Hon. Awwal Bamanga Tukur despite his outstanding performance from 1999-2003, lost his bid to make a return. Political pundits described Hon. Sa’ad’s performance as the most awful among his colleagues. The odds against him are enormous. There are already strong clarion calls to young people to contest for the seat, people like Aisha Dahiru Mohammed, the Chief Executive of Binani Group. If the lady agrees, Hon. Sa’ad’s legs will definitely be wobbling, because, Aisha appears to have overwhelming grassroots support, intimidating exposure and broad connections.

In 2007, the contest for seats in the National Assembly was a one-way affair in Adamawa State, but in 2011 it will be a tough contest; with political bigwigs- Atiku Abubakar, Jibril Amin and Gov. Nyako stretching the thread. For those aspiring to be MPs, it will be a difficult and very competitive contest. It will be a rat race, so to speak. Though the trouble with a rat race is that even if you win, you’re still a rat.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

A New Approach to Agriculture in Nigeria

Everyone in Nigeria believes that agriculture is very important for the country’s progress as well as being a vital tool for the liberation of Nigerians from the prison of poverty. However, Nigeria with a total area of 923,768 km² of which 910,768 km² is arable land, and 13,000 km² water; in addition to 140 million people, huge oil wealth and twenty-one (21) agricultural institutes- it can be interesting to mention them:

1. Arable Crops Research Institute

2. National Agricultural Extension Research and Liaison Services (AERLS)

3. Institute for Agricultural Research (IAR)

4. Institute of Agricultural Research and Training (IAR&T)

5. National Cereals Research Institute (NCRI)

6. Lake Chad Research Institute (LCRI)

7. National Root Crops Research Institute (NRCRI)

8. National Stored Products Research Institute (NSPRI)

9. Forestry, Horticulture and Tree Crops Research Institutes

10. Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria

11. National Horticulture Research Institute (NIHORT)

12. Cocoa Research institute of Nigeria (CRIN)

13. Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR)

14. Rubber Research Institute of Nigeria (RRIN)

15. Animal Production, Fisheries and Oceanography Research Institutes

16. National Animal Production Research Institute (NAPRI)

17. National Institute for Freshwater Fisheries Research (NIFFR)

18. Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research

19. Animal Health Research Institutes

20. National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI) – Vom

21. Nigerian Institute for Trypanosomiasis Research (NITR)

With the above mentioned Nigeria’s natural resources and the 21 agricultural research institutes along with the assistance of international development agencies, the country have created and implemented projects and programmes for the development of the agricultural sector- programmes such as the National Accelerated Food Programme of 1973, National Lives Stock Production programme of 1975, the Presidential Initiatives on selected commodities- rice, cocoa, cassava, vegetable and livestock and fisheries of 1999. But it is disheartening to note that these efforts have not yielded appreciable successes. The reasons for the low successes were not because the projects and programmes were mere paper and pencil solutions, but the methodology of their implementation seems to have missed some vital links, such as effective youth and local community participation and free from politicians interference.

Nigeria should redefine the implementation strategies of her agricultural programmes and policies, in such a way that youths are made the central focus. This is because for Nigeria to remain economically viable, it is imperative that the country’s agricultural sector is developed.

How would Nigeria benefit from an agricultural Scheme that makes youth its centre of attraction? Will such scheme not end-up same as the previous ones we criticised at the beginning of this piece? Most development and poverty reduction programmes in Nigeria end-up being hijacked by politicians at the detriment of the initial motive of the programmes or schemes. How can such a scheme be make to be free from ‘politics’ – the Nigerian politics, so to speak?

This proposed ‘youth centered’ approach to agriculture should not deviate from government’s agricultural goals of alleviating poverty and hunger, promoting sustainable agricultural development, improved nutrition and food security. However, the scheme should imbibe an all inclusive participatory technique- where youth, communities, local councils, states, the federal government and the private sector (financial institutions and private investors) will be active and major participants. Financial institutions and private investors shall be the financiers; governments at all levels will have well-defined roles, while the youths and communities shall be the targets. In addition, the scheme should be designed to be in four categories- ‘export oriented’, ‘large’, ‘medium’ and ‘small’ scales, along with a well-defined timeframe for government complete handoff from the scheme. But how will this be implemented?

The federal government would be the guarantor of fund to be provided by financial institutions or private investors. This will be done through the issuance of either callable, par value or coupon rate bonds. The scheme should work in such a way that local councils and state government would provide lands and other logistics. The private investors or financial institutions who will participate in the scheme are not to give money directly to the governments in order to receive the bond-certificate, but it would be a kind of batter arrangement; where the investor; either financial institutions or private individuals would setup farms, in addition to putting in place all structures required in a standard farm. After which a bond certificate equivalent to the cost which is to be determined by both parties and NGO’s will be issued to them. This will completely eliminate corruption which is the main reason for the failure of most good programmes in Nigeria.

To encourage investors to participate in the scheme, before the maturity of the bond, the investor would take a prescribed stake, between 5% and 10% in any of the farms they setup. This will assist in monitoring progress on the farm, on top of being an added value to the investors, since, in addition to the interests they will get from their bond when it is redeemed, they will have shares in the farms’ profit. However, after maturity of the bond, their stakes in the farm would be transferred to the host communities.

Despite the seeming complexity of such a scheme; if experts in the areas of systems thinking, financing, agriculture, and development are engaged to design it workability, it can be experimented as a tool for the implementation of the numerous government’s fine programmes that have suffered failures at the implementation stages. In addition to setting up of new farms, it can be experimented in rejuvenation of old ones; provision of extension services and agric implements to small scale farmers and also in the area of commercialisation of research findings by the agricultural research institution.

Perhaps it becomes what a Diaspora- Nigerian once said Nigeria’s economic problems dearly need- a ‘platinum bullet’.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Atiku, PDP and 2011

                                                           

Politics, as the saying goes, is really fascinating and very complex. It is the only permanent thing in life and most of the times its intricacies go beyond our imagination.  Nigerian politics, for instance, is always in perpetual alignment, realignment and horse-trading, while Nigerian politicians are often easily predictable and seldom difficult to predict.

It can be said that former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar’s plans to return to his former party, the PDP, was in the process for almost three years. In late 2008, Atiku’s posters in PDP’s emblems floated many streets of some states in the country, in particular Jimeta-Yola, the capital of his home state, Adamawa. It was also rumoured, some few months ago, that Atiku smartly attempted to return to the PDP, but was blocked by some forces in the party. So, the news of his return to the PDP may not be surprising to political pundits who have been closely monitoring the body language in his political camp. However, Atiku’s plans return to the PDP has raised some important questions as well as series of political hypothesis on why he choose the current time to perfect his long thought plan. Is it a sign that that the former Vice President has received a green light from an influential factor in the PDP? Perhaps, he has already smartly got PDP‘s membership card from his ward. Only time will tell.

Political pundits are of the view that Atiku’s return to the PDP is what the strong man of Italian politics and its Prime Minister; Silvio Berlusconi called sopravvivenza politica- political survival. Nevertheless, there is no doubt; Atiku’s return to PDP would affect the political permutation in the PDP, the Action Congress, Adamawa State in particular and Nigeria as a whole.

There are three schools of thought on the reasons why Atiku choose this current political situation to return to the PDP. The first thought by students of politic holds the view that, Atiku is imprisoned by his ambition to be President of Nigeria in 2011, so he has seen a rare opportunity he can’t afford to miss. The second school of thought is that of political analysts, their view is, Atiku’s move is nothing but a display of one of the many intriguing characters of the Nigerian politicians- they are always in perpetual oscillation; they stick only to where the wave offers them satisfaction of their political interest, giving truth to the saying that politics is all about interest. The third school of thought is that of ordinary Nigerians, who see Atiku’s return to the PDP as the ‘the same old story’- the Nigerian political environment will continue to be dominated by same elements who have same interest. However, Atiku’s loyalists are quick to point out that Atiku’s move is purely for national interests, especially at this critical moment. National interest, peace and unity are key words that Nigerian politicians use all the time to achieve their political goals, so to speak.

There was a claim by a group with a name Coalition for True Democrats which is based in Jimeta-Yola, Atiku’s home state capital, that Atiku’s return to the PDP was designed to be a counterbalance to the Generals in the PDP. Though Atiku’s media aide has denied the group, calling them fifth columnists. Atiku is wise enough not to contemplate using such a sentiment as a weapon for his return to the PDP. It will be a political suicide by him; after all, he is product of late General’s Shehu Musa Yar’Adua’s political magnanimity. In addition, Atiku cannot afford any political fight this time around, because he has fought many battles and, though he won a lots of them, political-war has cost him quite a lot of political fortune- he has lost his home state and some his political allies. This brings us to the implications of Atiku’s return to PDP as regards Adamawa politics.

The Adamawa State government and the State chapter of the PDP in a statement recently, opposed Atiku’s move. It is obvious that the reasons for the fear, nervousness, leg-wobbling and rumblings among politicians in Adamawa State are because of Atiku’s plans to return to the PDP is nothing but the possibility of him dominating the political scene which is a little bit crowded with many political interests. Besides that, Atiku has strong and widespread political might, which any clever politician will look at twice. Moreover, the truth of the matter is, once Abuja is okay with Atiku’s return to the PDP, the state chapter and indeed the Adamawa state government has no option than to receive him with open hands. But, Atiku has to prepare for a fierce resistance both from his home state and other political interest, having in mind that politics is all about openness and secrecy, honesty and deception. Atiku’s failure to reconcile with the PDP at the time the party valued and dreaded him most- i.e. before the Supreme Court judgment on his case against Yar’Adua’s election, has given his adversary within the PDP the political weapon needed against him, though the odds seem to be in his favour.

Does Atiku still possess his hitherto political charisma and ‘macho-man’ power, especially the one he possessed during his ‘no shaking’ political battle with former President Obasanjo, to face the already in the waiting opposition in the PDP? Does the PDP need Atiku or is it Atiku that needs the PDP? The answers are anybody’s guess- the road to the ‘shield of the umbrella’ may not be as smooth as it seems. High-wired politicking is needed. The answer to the second question is - both Atiku and the PDP need each other, in one way or the other. Atiku was a member of the G21 and G34- the founding groups of the PDP; and he is still the Head of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), a political grouping founded by the late Gen. Shehu Yar’Adua, a movement that is still a component in the backbone of the PDP. Additionally, Nigeria being a heterogeneous society and also an ethno-religious sensitive country, Atiku is among the few politicians that many Nigerian outside his ethno-religious leanings are conformable with. So, the PDP will leverage from that. On the other hand, the PDP is stronger than any of the political party in the country, thus it seems the only platform strong enough to smoothen Atiku’s way to actual his ambition, so he needs its emblem.

From now to 2011 many interesting high-wired politics would happen. Nigerians should expect one-two-punch political battles; bubble to bubble politicking as well as merry-go-around political games, all for who becomes the President in 2011.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

The Ministers Dr. Goodluck Jonathan Needs

Now that Acting President Goodluck Jonathan has finally dissolved the Executive Council of the Federation. Hopes are high that he would bring on board his best choices as new Ministers, thus, asserting full authority and putting a strong personal stamp on the government. The last 15 months remaining for this administration is crucial, this is because Nigerians’ quests for change on how things are done are strong, and their expectations are very high, but will the Acting President make the right selection that would make a difference?

When new Ministers eventually come on board, Dr. Goodluck will have to take full responsibilities of any actions or inaction of the government; as the doors of complain of working with disloyal individuals as Ministers would be completely closed.

However, for Dr. Goodluck to make any difference, he has to move with a speed commensurate with the expectations of Nigerians. The first thing he has to make sure is that; his new set of ministers is not just a team, but a collection of great thinkers- silicon-valley-thinkers; men and women who can move the government with the speed of the imagination of most Nigerians, and their sense of judgment must be centered on the challenges of un-locking the future for ordinary Nigerians. And also bring new thinking and synergy to the public sector's role in providing the needs of all Nigerians.

Dr. Goodluck’s new team has to be a propeller for greater equality of opportunities for all Nigerians. They must be able to build a system that will swing the government away from the traditional methodology of concentrating on only 'off-the-shelves' way of improving our society- each Minister must see himself/herself not only saddled with the responsibility within his/her portfolio; but a team player that would bring new feasible ideas that would trigger development in all spheres of the Nigerian economy- putting in place systems that would eradicate poverty by uplifting individuals, fight crimes with employments and opportunities rather than guns, axes, bows and arrows and fight official corruption the ways it ought to be and bring dynamism into governance.

This is the time for Nigeria to leapfrog the ladder development. It is sad that, for the past three years, Nigeria has not had a new thinking and fresh approach to governance. The country is thirsty for men and women of innovative ideas. Dr. Goodluck’s new set of ministers must be a team that will be an engine-room to provide broad variety of services to Nigerians, ranging from health and social programs, to defence, electricity, police protection, maintaining a sound legal system, and the provision of physical infrastructure including the re-invigoration of the education system, building of small scale industries and farms, roads construction and human capital development.

However, all these mentioned cannot be achieved without true political reform- a political re-engineering that would make the leadership to all the times think with the speed of the expectations of Nigerians and gradually institutionalise political, economic and social order in the society.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

World Water Day (WWD) 2010: Africa is Thirsty

The year 2010 World Water Day (WWD) is significant to Africa’s poor population. The event will hold in Nairobi, Kenya, on 22nd March 2010, as Africa is the world’s most thirsty continent. The theme of this year’s campaign is ‘Clean Water for a Healthy World’ and its overall goal is envisaged to raise awareness about sustaining healthy ecosystems and human well-being through addressing the increasing water quality challenges in water management and also raise the profile of water quality by encouraging governments, organizations, communities, and individuals around the world to actively engage in proactively addressing water quality e.g. in pollution prevention, clean up and restoration.

The population of Africa is growing at a geometric rate, but public access to basic needs including water supply is not. With millions of Africans coping with scarcity of clean, portable and affordable water, African policy makers should always remember that, water scarcity and population growth are two correlating issues.

WWD campaign is very important to rural communities, especially those in Africa, as the attention of the world will turn to their plight in the area of clean water supply and sanitation, as well as ring a bell to those in authority of their responsibilities to rural areas.

The United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution A/RES/47/193 of 22 December 1992 by which 22nd March of each year was declared World Day for Water, which was first observed in 1993, in conformity with the recommendations of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) contained in Chapter 18 (Fresh Water Resources) of Agenda 21.

Availability of clean water is a fundamental issue for socio-economic development of every nation, as Africa’s population is swelling in a geometric rate, there must be an increased effort in developing clean water allocation strategy, because as population and development increases, the quest by the public, especially the poor for clean, portable and affordable water for domestic use, increases.

Millions of Africans have no access to clean and portable water; coping with water scarcity is a challenging responsibility that requires decision makers to bringing water related issues to the top of political agenda. It is generally believed that poor communities suffer the greatest burden from inadequate water supply, but in Africa, poor communities, rural and urban areas are facing the dilemma of coping with scarcity of clean water.

For millions of Africans, the end of one tedious day marks the beginning of another, the first thing that comes to the minds of millions of Africans in the early morning of every day is where to get clean water. From rural to urban areas, women and children have to travel long distances to quench their thirst. As a result, many cannot go to school or go to school late. African children hoped for a life free of disease, but today, millions are battling with water-borne diseases, some are blinded while many are crippled. At childhood, waking–up in the morning, picking a container, rushing to queue or search for water is an activity that millions of African children think it is their culture and tradition, but in later part of their lives they realize is not. African governments have for a longtime, not made the provision of this commodity that everybody uses every day a priority.

UN World Water Development Report revealed that, in most of the largest cities in Africa, less than 10% of their inhabitants have sewer connections; only 10 to 30% of all urban households’ solid wastes are collected, the continent houses 13% of the world’s population that is without access to improved water supplies and sanitation, Africa has large disparities in water availability, and the lowest water supply in the world, despite the fact that, Africa houses four out of the five biggest water reservoirs in the world: Owen Falls located in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, Nasser in Egypt, Kariba in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Volta in Ghana

The United Nations General Assembly in 2003 proclaimed the years 2005 to 2015 as the international decade for action ‘Water for Life’; these commitments include the Millennium Development Goals to reduce by half the proportion of people without access to safe drinking water by 2015 and to stop unsustainable exploitation of water resources. At the World Summit in Johannesburg in 2002, two other goals were adopted: to aim to develop integrated water resource management and water efficiency plans by 2005 and to halve, by 2015, the proportion of people who do not have access to basic sanitation. There are no signs that Africa is on the path of achieving this, because of uncontrolled growing population, wide spread scarcity of clean and portable water, poor access to sanitation and health, limping capacity-building, inadequate financing and little or poor advocacy, poor resources management and unreliable energy.

With a population of nearly a billion people, with an average human water consumption of four litres a day, Africans need at least four billion litres of clean water a day! Although population growth projections are uncertain, but soaring rate of population growth is typical of most sub-Saharan African countries.

Political leaders who get water by a touch of a tap or squeezing of a bottle’s cap, need to know the world water day celebration has to go beyond conferences and seminars, and populations census have to be repositioned to serve only developmental purposes especially in planning for strategies in allocation of safe water. It is believed that demand for water doubles as population grows. Therefore, Africa’s strategy for provision of safe, portable and affordable water must take into reflection population growth.

For Africa’s political leaders to effectively address the increasing water quality challenges in water management and stop the increasing number of African children being decimated by water-borne diseases, a proactive and pragmatic safe water provision programme most be put in place. There is a clear need for a system that would give the poor access to clean and portable water sources that are reliable, dependable, maintainable and responsive to population growth.

As the world gathers in Africa to celebrate WWD 2010, those attending the conferences and seminars will quench their thirst by the squeeze of a bottle’s lid, while for millions of Africans to quench theirs, they have to travel hundreds of kilometers in search for water.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Lamido Dr. Aliyu Musdafa: 1922-2010

late Dr. Aliyu Musdafa (centre)

The people of Adamawa Emirate and indeed Nigerians were in a mournful mood in the evening hours of Saturday, 13th March 2010. Dr Aliyu Musdafa, the longest serving Lamido of Adawawa passed away. Dr. Aliyu Musdafa, who would have been 88 years by April, was a spiritual and Islamic leader by nature and father of all by socialization. From the ordinary man on the street, to the elites, he was referred to as BABA. The father of all is no more today!

The late Lamido has left an indelible legacy; he maintained social harmony among his heterogeneous subjects. For the nearly six decades he steered Adamawa emirate, he extended his hands beyond the border of Islam, maintaining a balance between Muslims and Christians in his domain. For instance, Adamawa emirate has traditional titleholders from diverse ethnic, religious, educational and social background. Late Dr. Aliyu Musdafa exhibited the character of a Statesman; he spread love and compassion within his domain. He was a man that loved his people and his people loved him. It was attested by a prominent member in the inner caucus of Adamawa Emirate, Alh. Muhammadu Barkindo Aliyu Musdafa, the first sons of the Lamido, who is also the Ciroman Adamawa, he said: “the Lamido was an epitome of peace, who seek feedback about his domain from the ordinary people perspective”

Born in 1922, Dr Aliyu Musdafa was turbaned as the 11th Lamido of Adamawa on 26th July 1953; he received the staff of office from Governor Sir Bryan Sherwood-Smith of the British colonial Administration. The Lamido was instrumental in the transformation of the emirate. For the 57 years he was Lamido, he helped preserved the culture and traditions of Adamawa people, and also embraced modernization; the Lamido’s palace is today a modern edifice and also houses the Fombina Museum; where all historical monuments of the emirate are on display, and the historic Modibbo Adama mosque beautifully reconstructed. His leadership and record as one among the longest serving emirs in Nigeria, has helped in ushering a new era in Adamawa state and Nigeria as a whole.

The Adamawa emirate was founded in 1806, by Modibbo Adama bin Ardo Hassana, a disciple of Othman Danfodio. Modibbo Adama bin Ardo Hassana was born in 1771 and ruled the Emirate from 1806 to 1847, he had 11 Sons and 4 Daughters. Some of his sons later ruled the Emirate. Lamido Muhammad Lawal bin Adama who was born in 1797, was the second Lamido of Adamawa, he ruled the emirate for 25 years from 1847 to 1872. The third Lamido was Lamido Umaru Sanda bin Adama, he ruled the emirate for 18 years from 1872 to 1890, and he died in 1890. The fourth Lamido was Lamido Zubeiru bin Adama, he ruled the emirate for only 3 years from 1890 to 1903, he died on 25th February 1903. The fifth Lamido was Lamido Bobbo Ahmadu bin Adama who died in 1916. The sixth Lamido was Lamido Muhammad Yarima Iya Bin Sanda. The seventh Lamido was Lamido Muhammad Abba bin Bobbo Ahmadu he ruled the emirate for 14 years from 1910 to 1924, he died on 23rd August 1924. Eighth on the throne was Lamido Muhammad Bello bin Ahmadu, who died in 1928 after reigning for 4 years from 1924 to 1928. The ninth Lamido was Lamido Muhammad Mustafa bin Abba who ruled the emirate for 18 years, he was born in 1900 and died in 1946, and the tenth Lamido was Lamido Yarima Ahmadu bin Muhammad Bello he rules for 7 years from 1946 to 1953.

Late Dr. Lamido Aliyu Musdafa was born in Yola. He received his education at Yola Elementary School and Yola Middle School (1936-1943). He worked at the Adamawa Native Authority in 1943 and was appointed the Chief of Police in Adamawa Province in 1945 with the title of Wali. After eight years of supervising the force, Aliyu Musdafa was selected as Lamido following the deposition of Lamido Ahmadu Maigari. Dr. Aliyu Musdafa was an exemplary leader, as well as a true Nigerian, who believed in one Nigeria. His old age didn’t deter him from attending his farms at Yola, Girei, Ngurore, Mandere and Bole. Late Dr. Aliyu Musdafa together with Alh. Ado Bayaro the Emir of Kano, Alh. Bashir Usman the Emir of Katsina had served with devotion the old Northern-Nigeria native police popularly called Dan-Doka. . During his stint as the Lamido, he served under 13 Heads of State since independence and witnessed several constitutional changes and political reforms. Most of all, his tenure had witnessed an era of peace and stability in the emirate. He was on record to have made tremendous contributions to the Northern House of Chiefs where he served as a member of the Public Accounts Committee. He was also a member of the Northern Nigeria Development Corporation. He was also a member of the Council of Chiefs in North-Eastern State, 1967-1976. When Gongola State was created in 1976, he was made President of the Council of Chiefs. In 1979, in accordance with the provisions of the new constitution, he was appointed to the National Council of States by virtue of his position as President of the State Council of Chiefs. Following the upgrading of second class traditional rulers to first class status by the former Governor of Adamawa State, Mr. Boni Haruna in 2005, Lamido Adamawa was designated the Premier Ruler of Adamawa State.

Late Dr. Aliyu Musdafa, the 11th Lamido of Adawawa will be remembered for his philosophy of non-discrimination, dialogue and entrenchment of peace, love and honesty. Those were the components that marked his 57 years as Lamido of Adamawa. May Allah grant him Paradise, Ameen.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980

2011: Nigeria Needs a Strong President

What is the cause of the current messy political situation in Nigeria? The answer is anybody’s guess- the absent of strong leadership in the presidency; perhaps, a leadership that could have produced spiralling domino effect. It appears both President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Acting President Jonathan Goodluck are not on top of issues of statecraft when it comes to critical political situation; especially the one Nigeria is in today. This is not an attempt at casting aspersion on them, or suggesting that they should have applied iron-hands in their styles of leadership, but it seems they have allowed their subordinates to dictate their course of actions or inactions.

Though, some school of thought may argue that, it is Nigeria’s peculiar political environment and the prevailing political situation in the country that forced the two leaders to appear too submissive to their subordinates. However, political pundits are of the view that, strong leadership know no particular situation.

There is no doubt that, both Yar’Adua and Goodluck are gentlemen of no refute and their stints as Governors have offered them some kind of training on quality leadership. But, since November 23, 2009, when President Yar’Adua left Nigeria to Saudi Arabia, to the day of his return on February 24, 2010, there is strong belief in Nigeria, that some people around the President are the ones dictating the actions or inaction of the President. On the other hand, Acting President Jonathan Goodluck’s actions and inactions from day-one of the current political crisis portrays him as too simple. Some commentators are of the view that, before his confirmation as Acting President, had Dr. Goodluck from day-one of the President’s absent, shown to Nigerians that he is in-charge, the country could have avoided the untidy political situation of which has brought confusion as to who is in-charge of the nation’s affairs, as well as prevented people from taking advantage of the situation. , we must although, admit that, Dr. Goodluck has to tread carefully to avoid plunging the country into a big political crisis. The big question here is, does Yar’Adua really know what is happening in the country? Taking into consideration that the Nigerian public has not seen Yar’Adua since September 23, when he left Nigeria and neither was he seen on the day of his return- making his whereabouts remains speculative.

Assuming the current situation was during the Obasanjo/Atiku, Buhari/Idiagbon, IBB, or Gen. Murtala administration, it would not have become this messy despite their shortcomings, because these were strong men. For instance, if it was Obasanjo, no one could have caged him from seeing or to be seen by people, not even being bungled back to the country when he is not prepared to. In addition, had it been that it was former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, from day-one, no one would need to be told he is sitting-in for the President

The current messy political situation in Nigeria has taught Nigerians a political lesson. In the up-coming 2011 elections, the country must vote and insist for a strong leader. Though, the Nigerian political environment has so much been polluted with issues that lack political progressivism, especially when it comes to who occupies the seat of the President.

It has now become rule within the Nigerian political class that who occupies the office of the President of Nigeria must fulfil some bizarre conditions- the north-south dichotomy; Muslims–Christians difference, the Yoruba, Hausa-Fulani, Igbo unhealthy race and the most disgusting issue is, one has to belong to a certain clique.

Though, Nigeria being a heterogeneous society and also an ethno-religious sensitive country, balanced power structure is desirable. It can also be said that the north-south issue especially as regards the presidency of Nigeria has been in existence for long time in Nigeria. But Nigerians have proved that all they need is good leadership, MKO Abiola won throughout the country despite the fact that he ran for the presidency on a Muslim-Muslim ticket, Gen. Murtala is an indisputable Nigerian hero and Nigerian throughout the country are today celebrating Gov. Fashola of Lagos State.

As earlier said, Nigeria being a heterogeneous society that is sensitive to some issues, balancing of power structure between the federating units is good, but it shouldn’t be at the detriment of good leadership. However, the disappointment is, it has now escalated to a dangerous path; the rule has been extended to states, local government and even wards elections. Today, ethnic, religious and geographical divides are louder than competency and good manifestoes in the Nigerian political sphere.

Few months from now, Nigeria will elect a new President, there is hope that Nigerians can turn things around and insist and vote for a strong President regardless of ethnic, religious or geographical considerations. A president with the ability to inspire enthusiasm in Nigerians with just a wink of an eye, an individual with vision for the future , who can go extra mile to get things done, one that can differentiate between reality and smokescreen and also remain positive in the public eye, no matter what the situation may be. When Nigeria has such a president development issues will quickly replace mundane ones in our polity. Though, for Nigeria to have such a President come 2011, we need an environment that breeds success. Electoral reforms and strong institutions are the keys needed to create such an environment.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

The North and Goodluck Jonathan Presidency

It is no news that Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is fully in-charge as the Acting President of the Federal Republic Nigeria. But the high-wired political intrigues, manoeuvres and horse-trading that heralded his emergence as the Acting President will continue to deepen as well as become very interesting. As events unfold, political pundits and students of history will have a lot to comment on, learn from and also use to predict things to come, while ordinary Nigerians will watch with keen interest.

The emergence of Yar’Adua as the President of Nigeria was a product of many factors. One of the main factors was the unwritten ‘agreement’ of power rotation between the north and south, which many observers see as undemocratic and also an offshoot of the never-ending ploy by the Nigerian political elites to continue to hold on to power, but it supporters described idea as the only way-out for all parts of the country to taste power.

Goodluck Jonathan’s Acting Presidency and the likelihood of him becoming the President will interweave within three issues; the return or otherwise of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the North’s political moves and Goodluck’s political future.

The north would be the epicentre of politics to come. Since the emergence of the facts about President Yar’Adua’s health status, political gladiators in the region are busy putting their political machinery to action by building networks and strategising for the 2011 presidential election, believing that the probability of Yar’Adua seeking a second term is very slim. There is strong feeling within the political class in the north, that the region must hold on to power till 2015 based on the aforementioned unwritten agreement, but most observers are quick to remind the political elites from the north that during the 2003 elections which was the turn of the south to complete their eight years in power, the same north fielded candidates to seek the office of the President.

Let’s assume all things being equal, and the north is allowed to go solo; is the political class in the region ready to make amends and present a candidate that would bring dynamisms and also exhibit an understanding of global trends? The north had made a serious mistake by allowing Obasanjo to pick his choice to represent it, because the region had the political power to block Obasanjo then. Though, the beauty of this remains a lesson to other regions when their ‘turn’ comes.

Now that it appears the north is slowly losing the Presidency, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan will be closely watched by the region; in addition, his actions and inactions will be thoroughly read by the northern political class. In return, the Acting President has to face the north with two calculations in his mind. The first; he has to keep in his mind the likelihood of the return of his boss, Yar’Adua, in this case, Jonathan will employ his usual tactic of being Mr. Patient. So, those that are expecting him to go bananas will be disappointed. But if he eventually becomes the President, he has to play the imitable- approach the north through political manoeuvring that requires reaching painstaking political agreement and concessions. Politics, they say, is all about give and take.

However, if Yar’Adua returns, Jonathan’s political calculations will definitely change. As earlier mentioned, the man must have been playing his politics with two things in mind, the return or otherwise of his boss. If Yar’Adua returns, Jonathan’s calculations must be on how to remain the Vice President, regardless of who will be the presidential candidate that will be presented by the north. Though, the feeling in many quarters is, the likelihood of Yar’Adua going for second term is slim. But is Yar’Adua ready to allow the north to represent another candidate for the 2011 presidential elections. If the north presents another candidate, there is no grantee he/she will do only one term of four years, so as to allow the south takeover, thus jeopardising Acting President Goodluck Jonathan chance of becoming President after the north might have finished its two terms.

If Yar’Adua do not eventually return, and in the end Acting President Goodluck Jonathan becomes the President, there is nothing that can stop him from seeking election into the office of the President, in fact many political elites from the north will campaign for him if they see the possibilities of their interests being promoted. In that case, high-wired politics that involves manoeuvres and horse-trading will be employed. Another possible scenario is, if Jonathan performs excellently, this will give him the advantage of winning the heart of Nigerians. He may also use the leverage of being the President and impose himself in 2011 as the President using the machinery of the State.

Acting President Goodluck Jonathan’s political future will be determined by four issues, the first and the most important is the return or otherwise of President Yar’Adua, the second is the political direction of the north, the third is his political intention and his ability to craftily play the usual Nigerian politics, while the fourth which is also closely tied to the first is his performance in office. Acting President Goodluck Jonathan has found himself in a situation that both politics and policies may determine his political future. To see him through, he has to take careful political steps and intelligent policies, these require more than good luck!

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo. com, 08036070980.

Between Atiku and Boni Haruna

Between Atiku and Boni Haruna

Political pundits always say politics makes strange bedfellows. The apparent growing bumpy political-relationship between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the former Governor of the Adamawa State, Boni Haruna, is a proof to this old political saying.

Atiku and Boni have together made a long political journey. They both have enjoyed the fruits and also tasted the bitter parts of the journey. Their political relationship can be traced back to Atiku’s early days in politics- the former Vice President needed highly educated young men to be part of his political team, and Boni fitted in. Well, that was history, as many things have happened.

Today’s frosty political-relationship between Atiku and Boni Haruna is generating comments from three groups: Atiku’s political disciples, Boni’s followers and students of politics. Atiku’s sympathisers are of the opinion that, Boni Haruna has exhibited a character of an ingrate, they stressed that, it was by Atiku’s grace he became the Governor of Adamawa State. They were also quick to point-out the fact that, Atiku made Boni politically. From being a journalist to being Personal Assistant to former Gov. Jolly Nyame during the SDP days, and later picked him as his deputy when Atiku contested for Governor of Adamawa State. Atiku also stood firm by him to be the Governor, when he Atiku was selected by Obasanjo to be his deputy.

On the other hand, Boni’s followers are of the view that, Boni has done for Atiku, what some sons cannot do their fathers. They said Boni has given to Atiku an unalloyed loyalty during his difficult political moment- the famous Obasanjo-Atiku saga. They are also quick to point-out that, had it been, Boni pitched camp with Obasanjo during that time, Boni would get whatever he wanted from Obasanjo, including the keys to controlling Adamawa Politics. Boni’s follower always conclude that, “Boni was there for Atiku when he Atiku needed him most, but Atiku was not there for Boni, when he Boni needed just a little of him”



From another perspective, students of politics see the situation through the prisms of political calculations; they opined that, after the 2007 general elections, Atiku made some wrong political calculations. They believe that his failure to take advantage of the ‘PDM umbrella’ and negotiate with Yar’Adua to secure Adamawa politics to the advantage of his political group was a big blunder. Atiku could have taken the advantage of that moment that the PDP and Yar’Adua valued and dreaded him politically- i.e. before the Supreme Court judgment on his case against Yar’Adua’s election. Atiku’s solo trip was fruitless, because he disregarded intelligent political advice from people like Boni.



The political relationship between Atiku and Boni Haruna is very important in the political sphere of Adamawa State because of so many reasons: Atiku is a political power house in Adamawa. During his sway as Vice-President; his adored political son, Boni Haruna, got the privilege of becoming an important branch of Atiku’s political tentacles in Adamawa Sate. So, political groups in Adamawa will naturally have strong interest in Atiku and Boni political relationship.



As the 2011 election approaches and political activities continue to unfold, if Atiku and Boni finally go on separated political platforms; the duo will for certain employ five strategies to consolidate their positions and checkmate each other’s political moves. Atiku will employ three, while Boni will make use of two. Among Atiku’s three strategies is, he will try as much as he can to ignore Boni politically, employing that as a proof to the world that he and Boni are no political equals. Secondly, he will utilise both his financial and political muscles to checkmate Boni, while the third and the most significant is; Atiku will try to religiously maintain his followers in the AC and also attract new ones.



Boni’s two strategies will be: he will form a strong alliance with the PDP and also with the current government in Adamawa State, this will be for one reason, to attract many politicians from the AC, his former political appointees and other politicians who for long wanted to join the PDP and the government in Adamawa, but whom absence of a leader to lead them has hindered them. Boni’s second strategy will be using the aforementioned alliance to send a signal to the government at the centre and PDP at the national level, that he has great political clout to make him a factor in strengthening PDP’s grip of Adamawa.



Both Atiku and Boni will succeed if they cleverly use these strategies; however, the duo have certain roadblocks to dismantle in order to pull through. The PDP in Adamawa is seriously fragmented; Boni has to make some error-free calculations to avoid political suicide. For him to succeed, he has to apply two laws of power: Law 19: Know who you’re dealing with and Law 20: Do not commit to anyone.



For Atiku, he has to keep in his mind that many of his political supporters were use to be close to the corridor of powers, they are very thirsty for that, Boni’s move may be an eye opener for them, so, Atiku should expect that not all of them will swim and sink with him. Second law of power will work for him. Never put too much trust in friends, learn how to use enemies.

Who will be the winners of this seeming love-loss between Atiku and Boni? Three people of course: Boni’s former political appointees, the PDP in Adamawa state and some members of Atiku’s political family who want to always be at the centre of mainstream politics. While the losers are two people: Atiku and Boni, they will lose one thing, political-friendship.

However, political pundits are quick to point-out that, this kind of political game is not strange; it is an integral part of politicking. As the politics of 2011 is thickening, any politician that doesn’t play ‘politics’ with politics, he is like what Italian politicians refer to as ‘Nonentity Politico’. Politics, they say, is all about interest.



Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.

Little Things Can Make A Difference

Simons Kolawale’s Little Ideas That Mean Much, in his Sunday column in the Thisday Newspapers of 20th December, 2009, and Mahmud Jega’s Ten Outsourcings in his Monday column in the Daily Trust of 4th January, 2009, have drawn the attention of Nigerians to one issue- the missing things in Nigeria’s development efforts. There is strong consensus among Nigerians that something very important is lacking in Nigeria’s effort to attend an appreciable level of development.
What is completely missing in the leadership style of Nigerian political headship, is, attending to the basic things by employing ‘small things’. In Nigeria, the love for holistic approach to programmes, projects and setting-up of systems and institutions is very glaring. Nigeria’s policy formulators, bureaucrats and the political class find holistic approach irresistible. The leadership of the Nigerian state adores ‘carrying the camel and its loads’.
Though, the whole represents more than the sum of its parts, but the use of holistic approach in conceiving or building systems in Nigeria have proven to be a failure. For instances, Nigeria’s electricity sector was conceived based on a holistic idea- the former NEPA was saddled with the responsibility of generating, transmitting, distribution and marketing of electricity in the country, the result was; the present electricity crisis in the country. Other examples are: the urban water supply in Nigeria was built on the idea of holistic approach (a series-water-system) for an entire state. Whenever there is failure at a point, the entire state’s water supply crumbles. The structures of the federal government of Nigeria, from tip to toe were built on a holistic idea. The result is, a federal system in which the centre is overwhelmed with so many responsibilities.
Though, this is not an attempt to discredit the idea of the use of holistic approach as a tool in tackling Nigeria’s development. Rather, the approach should be used in identifying and defining Nigeria’s numerous problems. If the current style in tackling development issues in Nigeria is not yielding the desired results, as expected, then what is the alternative?-The use of reductionisms, perhaps. The time has come for Nigeria’s political class to embrace the governance-style which entails attending to the basic things by employing ‘small things’. This tactic was the backbone of China’s Chairman Mao, 1958, The Great Leap Forward, which China is today benefiting from. However, we must quickly acknowledge that a complete copycatting of Chairman Mao’s idea may not necessary be the solution to Nigeria’s infrastructural and other nagging problems. Nigeria’s leadership can employ a kind of middle-line approach— an approach that has to encompass new thinking, new strategy, new concept maps, that will completely aid in shifting away from the traditional way development is approached. Nigeria needs a new development strategy where development in agriculture, road, education, electricity, healthcare, water supply, youth development and the bloated federal system are tackled through ‘segmentation of the various sector into their smallest unit’, then a head-on tackling of each unit with the participation of all the three tiers of government- applying ‘small things’ approach, one may say.
Nigeria has a good number of superb agricultural policies and programmes, but implementation has been a major problem. Implementation has been difficult because the federal government has always wanted to do everything- formulator of policies and programmes, implementer, owner of the land, the importer of farm implements, producer and distributor of fertilizers and so on and so forth. This is not saying that the government at the centre shouldn’t be part of all these. But a kind of reductionistic approach is needed. An arrangement that will allow the federal, state, local governments and private sector play a specific role that will trigger community participation and the feel of ownership. Take for instance, an agricultural project that will make youth participation the centre-point of its implementation. A project that will initiate the participation of graduates as entrepreneurs; where local councils give the land, the state governments offer all the necessary extension services while the federal government provides collateral/surety for financial institutions to make available the necessary fund. This will reduce the number of tasks each tier of government will do and also allow concentration on such task, as well as promote true generation of wealth through agriculture.
Nigeria has about 108,000km of roads, the largest in West Africa and the second largest in South Saharan-Africa. However, these roads are poorly maintained. This is not because of the complete absence of funds, but a slipup on how to tackle road maintenance. Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) and some states’ road maintenance agencies have initiated many rehabilitation projects, but it appears their efforts are not yielding result. FERMA has introduced a very good initiative on road maintenance, the siting of road camps in some locations on Nigeria’s federal highways, but it seems the idea died from birth. The road camps were mere two-room blocks, without the necessary tools, facilities and manpower required of a road camp that would assist maintenance engineers, superintendents and foremen to perform their works in accordance with correct and efficient fundamentals. Had these road camps been properly setup, they would have brought about easy detection of road defects such potholes, ruts, gullies and soft spots on unpaved roads, as well as automatically introduced reductionism into Nigeria’s roads maintenance programmes, as each road camp will concentrate only on a specific kilometers on a particular federal highway. Though whatever method is used, when roads repair is done correctly, the repair will last a long time. Done poorly, it can soon become a growing expense.
This writer is a strong advocate of private sector greater participation in managing Nigeria’s public schools. But not a ‘bulldozer’ kind of participation, where government will entirely surrender these schools to private entrepreneurs- hence students; teachers and parent would be at the mercy of private hands. Nigeria needs a ‘measured’ public private partnership, where government builds new schools, equips old ones, then takes a benchmark from a well-run private school on what it cost per student head in running a school; then a gradual entrusting of public schools to private sector, where government provides the funds, taking into cognizance cost per student; as it is in private, while the private sector manages it especially in the area of infrastructures maintenance, provision of teaching tools, management of training programmes for teachers - hence, our educational system will be run efficiently, new sustainable jobs will be created and government get will relief from deadweight. This suggestion may appear odd, but a honest look at all the three tiers of government budgetary spending per student head, for sure it will exceeds the amount the best schools in Nigeria charge per student head.
Same idea can be applied to Nigeria’s healthcare sector. There is complete absence of health insurance for majority of Nigerians, except the current health insurance scheme for government employees and some private firms entering contracts with private health care providers. This scheme benefits less than one percent of Nigerians. Healthcare provision in Nigeria is a concurrent responsibility of the three tiers of government in the country. However, the state of healthcare in Nigeria has been worsened by a shortage of doctors, poor facilities and the most important, the shortage of drugs and poor attention to primary healthcare. Since Nigeria operates a mixed economy and corruption in government has not allowed availability of drugs and adequate maintenance of healthcare facility. Private providers of healthcare have a visible role to play in Nigeria healthcare delivery. Time has come for Nigeria to adopt Public Private Partnership in its healthcare sector. The government should equip old hospitals; build new one, then gradually handover their management to private healthcare provider. The government provides funding and effective monitoring, while the private sector manages it. This will enhance availability of drugs, eliminate corruption and bring continues improvement, as there will be competition among the private healthcare providers on quality of patient care, enhanced healthcare facilities and of course affordability. Though, this kind of collaborative approach to healthcare requires a painstaking laying-down of procedures, regulations, and management structures.

Since Nigeria’s big approach to development efforts has failed. Time has come to test the ‘Reductionism Approach’- attending to the basic things by employing small things. It may be a silver bullet.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980.